台灣備戰需要雙重加速: 爭取短期內購入軍備與強化軍員實戰能力.
"U.S. officials, former Taiwanese military leaders and security experts say they believe that means Taiwan needs to do more to ensure it can inflict enough damage to discourage an invading force or hold it off until the arrival of help—possibly from the U.S. After years of increases in military spending, China now has around 100 times as many ground force personnel as Taiwan and a military budget 25 times as large, according to Pentagon data."
中國武裝攻擊前,致力打擊台灣自衛信心的動機: PLA逾卌年無實戰經驗,且有印太鄰國的包圍壓力。
"Launching a full-scale amphibious incursion 130 kilometers from the mainland would be a daunting exercise, and the PLA has not had major combat experience since 1979. Beijing would risk major resistance from Taipei as well as a devastating military response from Washington. In addition, it would do grave, if not, irreparable damage to its ties with the United States and the European Union, not to mention the four militarily and economically formidable democracies it counts as neighbors: Australia, India, Japan, and South Korea. Indeed, it is hard to think of an action that would do more to jeopardize China’s long-term strategic prospects. It would be far less risky for Beijing to continue its present lines of efforts: increasing its bilateral military advantage across the Taiwan Strait, working to undermine Taipei’s self-confidence, and persuading Taiwan that it will eventually have to acquiesce to resolving cross-strait tensions on China’s terms."
https://thediplomat.com/2021/05/taiwan-at-the-nexus-of-technology-and-geopolitics/
PLA人事異動的意義:
"王秀斌過去在過去南京軍區、現東部戰區歷練,相當熟悉對台作戰;之前南部戰區司令員為海軍出身的袁譽柏,此次南部戰區又由陸軍體系王秀斌擔任司令員,推測並非要對中南半島下手,而是代表過去海軍出生的將領已完備南部戰區的海空指管制度建立,更代表中共總書記習近平推動的軍改已有第一階段成效,才會有此人事調整。
林穎佑認為,王秀彬既是懂東部戰區、又懂台海作戰的將領,由於現在共機擾台的航空器大多是從東部戰區飛來,在王秀彬上任後,南部戰區是否可能加入擾台或對台作戰的序列,值得注意。
林穎佑也提到,巨乾生出身於共軍總參謀部技術偵察部,不僅是技術(駭客)將領,更是懂「駭客思維」的人選,而戰略支援部隊就是整個共軍的資訊作戰領導,有別於可能出現外行領導內行的情況,現在由技術背景出身的軍官擔任資訊戰將領,對於提升共軍資訊人才的士氣具有一定幫助,更代表資訊作戰、信息戰未來在共軍的重要性。"
一年內換四個司令太異常了:
「蹊蹺之一是西部戰區在不到一年之內,換了4任司令。
去年4月,已屆65歲之齡的西部戰區司令趙宗岐到11月仍在超期服役,同年12月時年58歲的中部戰區副司令張旭東接任,當月在北京晉升上將。但剛過半年,今年6月張旭東就被比他僅年輕4個月的戰區陸軍司令徐起零取代。
文章引述消息說,張旭東是因健康原因而無法履職,徐起零的上將晉升儀式7月5日在北京舉行;但是不過兩個月,徐起零的戰區司令一職又被汪海江取代。汪海江比徐起零年輕3個月,據內部消息,徐起零的健康也出了問題。
西部戰區在共軍5大戰區中轄區面積最大,司令部設在四川成都,是對印度、阿富汗的最前線,連續兩任司令健康出問題,令外界十分關注。」
總加速師領銜催戰鼓:
"央視新聞在報導中,在習近平的中共總書記、中國國家主席、中央軍委主席3大頭銜之後,加上了過去較少出現的「軍委聯指總指揮」頭銜。同時,中共中央軍委副主席張又俠、何衛東及其餘4名軍委委員,也全數陪同習近平視察。"
總加速師親自叫陣, 看來對美開戰是沒有回頭路了:
[Now by directly accusing the U.S. of seeking containment, a term loaded with Cold War meaning, Mr. Xi appears to be associating himself more closely with nationalist rhetoric—widely used by lower-ranking officials and state media—that attacks Washington, at a time when bilateral tensions continue to simmer over trade, technology, geopolitical influence and discordant views on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The English-language version of Mr. Xi’s speech reported by Xinhua didn’t refer to containment or the U.S. Instead, it quoted him telling fellow officials to “have the courage to fight as the country faces profound and complex changes in both the domestic and international landscape.”]