這麼大的危機事件, 即使沒有一整套完整解決方案, 好歹也要表個態吧? 但北京當局到目前為止都是作壁上觀, 好像在等最大尋租利益出現, 比外資更像外人.
“we think it is imperative for the government to provide clear communication on the plan regarding Evergrande and to shore up confidence among home buyers, suppliers and contractors, banks and other nonbank financial institutions,”
今天傳出以海航模式處理的最新傳聞:
"《Asia Markets》報導，中國政府消息人士透露，中國政府正在介入恆大債務危機，恆大有可能被分成三個實體，最終決定或將在幾天內宣布。
報導指出，房地產巨頭有可能轉變為國有企業；根據消息人士透露，這項協議的用意在於保護購買恆大房產的一般民眾，以及恆大財富的投資人，最重要的是防止恆大破產對中國經濟的衝擊，這項重組計畫與恆大5年期債券利息到期日有關。"
不曉得匯豐踩得有多深...
"對於這波中國地產股崩跌，凱爾巴斯在推特上用「banking crisis」是一語雙關，除了銀行因為放款給地產公司而慘遭倒帳的危機之外，從他標記匯豐銀行就暗示著，這些銀行還可能涉嫌非法貸款、超貸給這些地產公司，恐面臨司法上的調查和整肅，是另一種的「banking crisis」。"
【恆大們出列！一天暴跌87％不能再高了 華爾街大佬點名香港這家銀行涉超貸】
出處：信傳媒( https://www.cmmedia.com.tw/home/articles/29912 )
對匯豐執行長的空虛發言只想翻白眼：
「據報導，匯豐資產管理部門、貝萊德、瑞銀等公司一直是恆大債券的最大持有者。根據《彭博》彙編數據，匯豐約持有2億美元的恆大美元債券。」
WSJ這篇新加坡出的稿被不救派認為是證明:
[ The officials characterized the actions being ordered as “getting ready for the possible storm,” saying that local-level government agencies and state-owned enterprises have been instructed to step in to handle the aftermath only at the last minute should Evergrande fail to manage its affairs in an orderly fashion. ]
汪浩簡單點出恆大債務危機之所以是系統性風險而非單一企業或產業問題的成因：
「中國房地產是中國經濟支柱產業，穩增長必備：拉動GDP三成，貢獻財政四成，創造信用五成，是中國經濟內循環的核心動力。房地產的問題，絕不只是來自房地產，而是中國經濟增長模式、貨幣發行模式、信用創造模式、財政運行模式、國家和社會治理模式等種種問題的集中表現。 隨著人口懸崖和債務大爆發，房地產不斷的金融化，成為債務密集度畸高的行業。從拿地到開發，基本上都是依靠債務－－房企開發貸+居民按揭貸。
中國的債務型經濟增長模式，經過金融深化與金融自由化，已經具備所有金融危機的動因。 中國房地產的高槓桿屬性，銀行放貸失控火上澆油，房價上漲抵押物升值會進一步助推銀行加大放貸，甚至主動說服客戶抵押貸、放槓桿。在世界歷史上，歷次房地產泡沫中銀行業都深陷其中，房地產危機既是金融危機也是經濟危機。」
這篇認為當中國政府意識到投資效益低下後試圖用提高內需拉抬效益, 當投資集中於房市開始過熱後又嘗試以三條紅線等政策降溫, 於是地產開發商龍頭就這麼卡住了:
"Since 2008, it has needed ever more debt to deliver the same increment to economic output. Between 2008 and 2019, total debt—government, household and business—rose from 169% to 306% of gross domestic product, but GDP growth fell from 10% to 6%. Productivity growth adjusted for the expanding stock of buildings, machinery and other capital was 2.6% a year from 2000 to 2010. It has been negative since 2015, a sign of how inefficient much of that investment has been.
A few years ago Beijing recognized this model was unsustainable and has sought in fits and starts to shift to “higher quality” growth more dependent on consumers. That process was bound to be disruptive; indeed, it triggered a disorderly devaluation of the yuan in 2015, but it did succeed in slowing the buildup of debt.
Last year, to tide the economy through the pandemic, credit was loosened again. Yet Chinese officials see soaring housing prices as a threat to financial and social stability so they laid out a three-year timetable for lending to the red-hot property sector to be reined in. Just as the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate increases eventually popped the U.S. housing bubble over a decade ago, those regulatory restrictions, with a lag, popped China’s, said Gene Ma, head of China research at the Institute for International Finance. Evergrande was an early casualty since it is one of the most leveraged developers, he said."
等著看金融業者能雙邊失血支援多久。
"花旗集團估計，至今年底，中國銀行系統約41%資產直接或間接與房地產有關，房價走跌恐引發銀行資產的連鎖反應。中國銀行提供給開發商及購屋者的未償付貸款估計達50兆人民幣（215.27兆台幣）。"
"知情人士披露，官員要求銀行不可全面切斷對開發商的融資，應持續對營建中的計畫提供支持，並批准購買預售屋者的抵押貸款。"
WSJ這篇用圖表具體指出中國房市泡沫與恆大事件的規模: 前者是美國2005年房市泡沫的翻倍($847 billion v. $1.6 trillion), 後者的開發項目樓地板面積總和約相當於513棟帝國大廈.
"Analysts have generally indicated an Evergrande default wouldn’t spur a crisis of confidence like the one that followed the Lehman Brothers collapse. But Evergrande is the largest property developer in a Chinese real-estate bubble that has been expanding for years. Investment over the past decade in China’s residential-property market has dwarfed the U.S. housing bubble of the 2000s, at least in terms of its share of domestic economic output."
中國房市的危機點: 大城市以外的房地產仰賴泡沫支撐.
"But property construction in smaller cities ran well ahead of demand from prospective occupants for the last five years in China, leaving the market increasingly dependent on speculators and investors to buy properties, said Logan Wright, China markets research director at Rhodium Group, a research firm based in New York. About 21% of homes in urban China were already vacant in 2017, which equated to 65 million empty units, according to data from China Household Finance Survey."
? 結果在恆大之後爆的竟然是一間完全沒聽過的中國地產商...
[ 惠誉将花样年的评级从“B”调降至“CCC-”并警告称，该公司财务状况存在不确定性，面临无法在周一偿还2.08亿美元的一个更受瞩目的国际债券的“重大”风险。
不过，最初的警报是由媒体报道引发的，媒体报道称花样年错过了9月28日到期的一笔1亿美元款项支付，这笔款项本应支付给那些对私人债券行使所谓“看跌”期权的债券持有人。" ]
https://www.reuters.com/article/china-property-fantasia-idCNL4S2R0281
比較吃驚WSJ這麼快能抓出花樣年的資料來, 該不會把中國前一百大的地產商資料都備好了吧...
"When compared with Evergrande, Fantasia is significantly smaller in size. Its sales in the first nine months of 2021 ranked 73rd among its domestic peers, while Evergrande was in third place, according to a market report by research firm CricChina."
不知道野村的預估是否包含影子銀行部位。
「野村預估，截至今年6月，中國開發商的債務已達5.2兆美元（約新台幣147.1兆）。最高比例為銀行貸款佔46％，債券市場則大約佔10％，包括相當於 2170億美元（約新台幣6.1兆）的美元債券，其中許多是垃圾債券。」
看樣子應該是有包括在內。
“The real-estate giants have borrowed not only from banks but also from shadow-banking outfits known as trust companies and from individuals who put their savings into investments called wealth-management products. Abroad, they became a mainstay of international junk-bond markets, offering juicy yields to get deals done.”
趙君朔這集把最近的恆大危機連帶影響整理得很詳細：
中國開發商危機名單新增佳兆業集團:
"Kaisa’s tumble takes its shares’ year-to-date losses to nearly 73% amid growing investor concerns about Chinese developers’ ability to refinance or repay billions of dollars in debt. Fitch and S&P Global Ratings both downgraded the already junk-rated Kaisa in October to CCC-plus, near the bottom of their ratings scales, citing refinancing risk."
驚訝聯準會發這個示警:
「有鑒於中國經濟與金融系統的規模，以及其與世界其餘地方的廣大貿易連結，在風險情緒惡化之下，中國的金融壓力可能會讓全球金融市場感到緊張，對全球經濟成長構成風險，進而影響美國。」
報告只有85頁, 恆大部分在第65頁:
"Stresses in China’s real estate sector could strain the Chinese financial system, with
possible spillovers to the United States
In China, business and local government debt remain large; the financial sector’s leverage is
high, especially at small and medium-sized banks; and real estate valuations are stretched. In
this environment, the ongoing regulatory focus on leveraged institutions has the potential to
stress some highly indebted corporations, especially in the real estate sector, as exemplified by
the recent concerns around China Evergrande Group. Stresses could, in turn, propagate to
the Chinese financial system through spillovers to financial firms, a sudden correction of real
estate prices, or a reduction in investor risk appetite. Given the size of China’s economy and
financial system as well as its extensive trade linkages with the rest of the world, financial
stresses in China could strain global financial markets through a deterioration of risk sentiment, pose risks to global economic growth, and affect the United States."
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20211108.pdf
有些理解為何此時示警了:
"In total, Chinese junk borrowers have about $197 billion of dollar debt outstanding, Goldman Sachs analysts have estimated. That means the ICE BofA index covers a little more than half of that total debt, implying the full losses for investors are considerably larger."
"Including cash from bond interest payments, the index has generated a total return of minus 28% so far this year, putting it on course for its worst performance since 2008. But this year’s selloff is much bigger in dollar terms, affecting far more investors. The total face value of the ICE BofA Asian Dollar High Yield Corporate China Issuers Index was just $3.2 billion at the end of 2008."
恆大的許家印還算肯負責的:
"報導指出，恆大在過去3天內總共出售了在香港上市的恆騰網絡集團有限公司約5.7%的股份，總計籌集約1.45億美元資金。上個月，恆大傳出出售兩架私人飛機，套現5000多萬美元。
在此之前，恆大於9月間出售了盛京銀行17.5億股的股份，取得99.93億元資金；恆大創辦人許家印日前傳出，已賣掉香港豪宅，用以償還已到期的債務。"
苟延殘喘到十二月終於正式開爆:
"當恆大公告無法履行一筆2.6億美元（約台幣73億）債務後，無疑開啟債務違約大門，廣東省人民政府約談許家印後，隨即宣布派出工作組進駐恆大摸底。不到半小時，央行、銀保監會、證監會、住建部等部門都發表立場，支持廣東省政府。"
外界比較像把人行這波操作看作示警而非救火:
"The central bank’s move, which came sooner than some economists expected, signals growing concern about an economy that is losing momentum, particularly because of the weakening property market, which accounts for about a quarter of China’s economic activities. Sales by China’s top 100 developers dropped for the fifth straight month in November, shedding 37.6% in value from a year earlier, according to China Real Estate Information Corp."
趙君朔也在昨天提到了人行調降存款準備率的不妙:
有些驚訝人行這麼快連兩波操作, 看來底層經濟情況確實不太妙?
"中國金融業界分析，人行下調支農、支小再貸款利率，將有助於降低中國中小銀行的資金成本、引導這些中小銀行降低「三農（農業、農村和農民）」和小微企業貸款利率；此外，人行希望在保持貨幣總量適度寬鬆情況下，透過結構性工具，針對性支持實體經濟。"
"根據中國人行網站公告，這次降準共計釋放長期資金約1.2兆元人民幣（約5.2兆台幣），金融機構加權平均存款準備金率將由8.9%降至8.4%；其「穩健」貨幣政策取向沒有改變，釋放的一部分資金將被金融機構用於歸還到期的中期借貸便利（MLF），還有一部分被金融機構用於補充長期資金。
瑞銀經濟學家汪濤等人報告指出，中共中央政治局政策基調的調整明確表明，中國高層領導人認識到了「經濟下行壓力」，中國人行雖重申穩健貨幣政策立場，但此次降準實際上發出了「貨幣政策寬鬆」的明確信號。"
WSJ對之前人行降率放水的效果不甚看好:
[ Chinese leaders appear to realize that to implement additional painful reforms at this point risks cutting economic growth further—in a politically sensitive year when President Xi Jinping is widely expected to seek a third term in power. Thus, to ensure political stability, Chinese leaders are likely to put on hold new forms of tightening, as well as changes aimed at narrowing social inequalities.
“The chance for Beijing to launch new hawkish regulations is getting much less likely this year,” says Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley.
Many economists expect Beijing to set a growth target of at least 5% to help stabilize expectations ahead of the party congress, to be held sometime in the fall.]
現在介於「放怕逃、收怕死」之間的為難狀態:
"In face of downward economic pressure, China’s top economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, said Tuesday that Beijing is expediting the rollout of major infrastructure projects to counter uncertainties early in the year.
To some economists, the past two months’ rate cuts, while welcome, are still rather modest in scope when compared with the magnitude of the woes facing the economy.
In particular, the five-basis-point cut in the five-year loan prime rate was smaller than expected, a decision that economists at Citigroup said could reflect regulators’ reluctance to bail out the real-estate sector with more stimulus."
趙君朔對廿大後的中國局勢預測:
“ (1)除了少數受惠於國家政策支持和補貼的部門，中共經濟會繼續下滑。(2)房地產部門的問題國家沒有要積極介入的跡象，這會讓偏遠省分賣地收入大幅下降的地方政府很快開始接連出問題。（3）要道開始出現小規模的財政和金融危機後，中央政府才會在不得以下介入救援，但在缺乏全面的強力方案下，這只是延緩了大規模社會和政治動盪爆發的時間點。（4）一旦經濟不見好轉，人民史無前例的開始勇敢出來抗議政府的劣政，習近平很可能靠對外挑起衝突甚至發動戰爭來替自己解圍，時間點在2024年中左右。”
WSJ也注意到國台辦人馬退出中常委的異常，不禁猜測起這次九合一選舉到底隔壁那些從國台辦到王岐山到維尼的暗樁各線會不會內鬥起來:
"In addition to the military promotions and party-charter amendment, China’s leadership excluded Liu Jieyi, director of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, from the Communist Party’s new Central Committee lineup. Some analysts say that signaled a potential shift in Taiwan policy."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/taiwan-braces-for-grim-times-after-chinas-xi-extends-power-11666878661?st=wmrmht9bqwjvmv1&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
我是不好意思叫PROC向ROC投降啦...😆
但PROC向USA投降這很可以 
"「九二共識等於一中，沒有各表」，也在習時代確立。直到2019年「告台灣同胞書」，甚至把「九二共識」等同於「一國兩制」，像肉品市場那條趕豬上秤的鐵巷子一樣，只准台灣各黨各派來談促進一國兩制，其餘免談。至此，兩岸間除了投降談判，已經沒什麼好談的了，"
補一下台建盟的統計:
"【六都直轄市長候選人 】
民進黨六都候選人全數簽署。
國民黨和民眾黨無人簽署。"
"【非六都縣市長簽署 】
國民黨和民眾黨尚無人簽署。"
續補議員統計(資料統計至2022/11/08)
"【113人】六都直轄市議員簽署
不分六都與非六都，政黨上，台灣基進參選 24人，24人全部簽署；政黨派系，民進黨湧言會參選26位議員，全部簽署，以下不做細項說明。
六都議員，時代力量11人、小民歐巴桑聯盟12人簽署。國民黨無人簽署；民眾黨高雄、台南各1人簽署，共2人。"
續補議員統計資料統計至2022/11/08
"【58位】非六都縣市議員簽署
民進、時力、基進，皆有表態，民眾黨尚無人簽署。國民黨從上周1人(屏東)，增加1人(基隆)，累計共2人。"
選前最後一週統計不投降承諾書結果:
六都直轄市長候選人裡，國民黨和民眾黨無人簽署；
18位非六都縣市長候選人的國民黨和民眾黨都無人簽署；
147位六都議員候選人裡，國民黨無人簽署；
73名非六都縣市議員參選人裡，民眾黨無人簽署而國民黨有兩人簽署。
結論: 國民黨跟民眾黨就是投降黨，民眾黨的投降傾向比國民黨還高!
親中滅台黨立委擋國防武器關鍵預算實據:
"國民黨立委馬文君、江啟臣、吳斯懷以相關資訊不足，對實際的進度有疑問為由，針對「潛艦國造—第二階段原型艦籌建」編列的55億，提案凍結5億；
國民黨立委張育美也對「新一代輕型巡防艦—第二階段原型艦籌建」提案凍結7千萬元。
國民黨立委呂玉玲以軍種委託中科院預算編列與計畫案例不符頻傳為由，提案凍結「劍龍級潛艦戰鬥系統提升案」預算的20％。
樂山雷達挑起監測中共彈道飛彈的重任，國防部今年編列23億7千多萬元的維持費用，國民黨立委鄭正鈐和呂玉玲分別提案凍結10％預算。"
輕型巡防艦防空型原型艦開工的同時，不要忘記國民黨不分區立委擋這個預算阻止台灣自衛能力:
"她指出，輕型巡防艦的噸位小、建造期程短，可以讓海軍在執行任務的時候，減少主戰艦的耗損，在兵力運用上也更具有彈性，未來輕型巡防艦將共同擔負起海上偵蒐、巡邏以及監控等任務，成為海軍水面艦艇的新戰力。"
新聞裡的夜間演練影片看到目瞪口呆...
"方陣快砲屬機砲彈鏈式的艦用近程防空系統，在我國的成功級巡防艦、紀德級驅逐艦、康定級巡防艦、沱江級巡邏艦等戰鬥艦艇都有配備，日前開工的輕型巡防艦也將其列為「標配」。由於是提供防空火力支援，國軍多將方陣快砲配置於艦尾直升機庫上方，也同時為S-70C反潛直升機提供防空火力支援。"
"後勤裝彈必須先在彈鏈尚未進彈艙前，將各彈藥的種類如曳光光、穿甲、高爆燒夷等，交錯配置排好；而在戰時這些前置作業基本上會預先做好，只需從彈藥箱中取出彈藥，整理、檢查即可輸送上彈。"
康定級巡防艦補充後備:
"目前海軍艦艇採購國大略分別為法國（拉法葉艦）、德國（獵雷艦）及美國（紀德級等），因此這項零附件購案為拉法葉艦所屬的零附件，有助於維持後勤戰力。
康定級巡防艦，原型為法國海軍拉法葉級巡防艦，隸屬海軍124艦隊，母港左營軍港，主要執行台海防空、反潛、護航、反封鎖及聯合水面截擊作戰。"
圖示可知海軍惦惦吃三碗公~
"美方也表示，這項軍售案不會破壞區域軍事平衡，我國也可以毫不費力地接收新式軍備，美方也將派200名政府人員，以及200名承包商代表前來我國，提供我國所需的工程、技術支援服務。"
陸軍後勤也大補特補:
"將委由美國在台協會（AIT）以新台幣9億1953萬元，向美採購各式直升機後勤零附件；從決標公告之履約地點台南市歸仁區研判，此案應為陸軍航空特戰指揮部（下稱航特部）及轄下飛行訓練指揮部（下稱飛訓部）之相關採購案。"
空軍也在加強東岸應變:
"據軍方官員指出，軍方多次檢討、評估後發現，以一條3700公尺長、60公尺寬的跑道為例，假設跑道遭精度50公尺內，且破壞半徑25公尺的飛彈攻擊，估算至少要遭6枚飛彈轟炸，才有8成機率遭到截斷或完全破壞。而根據統計結果，攻擊方連續發射2枚飛彈，才會有1枚可能落在「以目標為中心，半徑100公尺的圓形區域內」，其統計結果代表的是機率，2枚飛彈統計上會有1枚落在範圍內，並不代表發射2枚就一定有1枚擊中跑道。軍方根據「料敵從寬」原則，會以1枚擊中狀況下評估最速修復運作，最保險的作法就是從加寬跑道做起。"
