進入網路世紀, 中國特有體驗也從糧票升級到房票了...

"綜合中華網財經等媒體報導,武漢市房管局28日發布「關於加強購房資格管理工作的通知(徵求意見稿)」意見的公告,徵求意見時間至8月6日。這項通知被業界戲稱「武漢進入憑票買房的時代」。"

cna.com.tw/news/acn/2021073000

一邊緊控買方市場一邊賣方破產上升的恐怖房市氣球遊戲...

"亞洲旅宿大數據研究院統計發現,中國近三年聲請破產的房企呈現上升趨勢,二○一九年有三七七家房企宣告破產,二○二○年有四七○家,今年才過七個月,宣告破產房企已達二四九家。

該研究院首席分析師高松元表示,聲請破產的絕大多數為地方型小房企,二四九家中,廣東省數量最多、達四十六家,其次為江蘇的廿一家、浙江二十家;按過去經驗,下半年破產房企會更多,進入八月第一天,就有雲南新立邦房地產開發公司、天津松江興業房地產開發公司、天津松江恆泰房地產開發公司三業者聲請破產。

儘管宣告破產大部分是中小型房企,但A股五十家已披露半年業績預報的上市房企中,也有近半預告虧損。"

ec.ltn.com.tw/article/paper/14

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"在此之前,中國監管機關目標,主要是包括萬達、安邦、復星和海航等在海外大肆併購的集團,然而,沒想到恆大才是金融體系最薄弱的一環,而且很可能傷害到中國在疫情後的經濟復甦。壓力爆發的關鍵在2020年12月,文件顯示,恆大集團主要境內子公司恆大地產有2057億人民幣的未償還商業票據,成為中國應付票據存續規模最高的房企。"

ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breaking

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這些外資要當恆大的接盤俠也不錯啦,親中外韭死一個是一個~^^

[ The widening regulatory crackdown that sparked a big selloff last month in the shares of internet-technology and education companies has also weighed on Chinese credit markets, pushing down prices of even investment-grade bonds. The moves show China is getting more serious about reining in companies whose business practices are seen at odds with national priorities. Investors are now actively looking for sectors that might be next in the crosshairs.

“A lot of the tension is focused on the property sector, and it’s really been driven by [China’s] policy,” ]

wsj.com/articles/chinas-corpor

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外媒很關注恆大欸~

"路透報導,港交所公告,中國恒大利潤主要構成為:房地產開發業務虧損約為人民幣40億元,恒大汽車虧損約為人民幣48億元,出售持有恆騰網絡部分股份及持有其其餘股份按市價估值之盈利合計約人民幣185億元。...

...目前正深陷財務風暴的中國恒大集團,近期傳出將賣房籌錢。彭博引述消息表示,恒大有意出售其位於香港灣仔的集團總部大樓中國恒大中心,喊價約20億美元,以紓緩財困。據稱有兩家公司正與恒大談判,尚未作出任何決定。"

money.udn.com/money/story/5604

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不准唱空政策出檯後,恆大就坦率說準備要違約了:

"恆大股價也因財務暴雷,今年已下跌71%。

《彭博》報導,恆大正出售上市電動汽車和物業管理部門的股權與資產,並積極尋求新投資者,挹注資金。恆大坦承,部分房地產開發應付款項逾期,導致部分項目停工,目前公司正在與供應商和建築承包商談判以恢復工作,會盡最大的努力按計劃完工。"

ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breaking

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不是財經網美貼文還真不知道恆大金服爆了的傳聞....

"聽說欠了八兆台幣 大約3000多億美金"

pttweb.tw/s/3QDuPe

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前幾天被接連調降評等的新聞或許是傳聞肇因之一?

「9月6日星期一,評級機構穆迪又調降了恆大及其子公司的評級,理由是:“在違約的情況下,恆大債權人獲得賠償的前景不佳”。周二,國際第三大評級機構惠譽緊隨其他評級機構的腳步,也給恆大降了級。自2021年年初以來,恆大股價的下跌幅度超過了75%,恆大的股價及其債券的價值因而跌到了它2015年時的水平,尤其是那些應該在2023年償還的債券。」

rfi.fr/tw/%E5%B0%88%E6%AC%84%E

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骨牌效應。

"惠譽表示,恆大5720億人民幣的貸款為銀行等金融機構持有,但銀行或許對恆大的供應商有間接曝險,這些供應商的商品和服務欠款6670億元人民幣。

惠譽說:「對恆大或其他脆弱開發商曝險較大的小型銀行,可能面臨不良貸款大幅增加,這取決於涉及恆大的信貸事件如何發展。」"

cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202109150

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房地產與家庭財富的高度重疊讓整個泡沫破滅的地產業成了燙手山芋。

"Currently, more than three-quarters of household wealth in China is tied up in real estate, and Beijing has a strong incentive to make sure that such wealth doesn’t go down in an exploding bubble. A collapse of Evergrande could be detrimental to property values, which would deal a blow to consumer wealth and in turn lead to a slowdown in consumption and investment, in addition to other consequences. Because the CCP has focused its attention on de-risking the property sector and other developers have done good jobs of reducing their debt burdens so far, it should reduce the effect of an Evergrande collapse. Nonetheless, the firm is so big that this ripple effect is possible."

thediplomat.com/2021/09/is-chi

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看到這些數字才對影響規模有些具體概念...

"恆大員工達20萬人,在中國數百座城市中有數千個開發項目,間接影響380萬人就業,恆大破產不僅衝擊數百萬購房者,以及大量供應商、建築商的利益,還將重創就業市場,尤其恆大負債涉及超過128家銀行與121家非銀行機構,恆大倒閉也將重創中國金融市場和金融系統的穩定。"

ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breaking

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「在更早之前,中共在歷經2014因為限購令等因素造成房價出現明顯跌幅後,還是選擇飲鴆止渴又走上依賴房地產拉動經濟的老路才是今天這個局面的禍首。從2016開始,中共想出的新方法是搞更新類似西方貧民區的棚戶改造,雖然在手上法是更有創意。

這類的棚戶改造是由國家開發銀行領頭,提供進行改造的融資。具體進行的方式是拆除原來居民的棚戶,並以每平方米約3000人民幣的價格給予補償,但這個補償的金額不是直接撥給居民,而是撥到一個第三方託管帳戶。然後在棚戶居民選好要購買哪一棟新的在原址改好的公寓後,帳戶的款項便直接付給開發商。同時購買搬入新公寓的居民還能獲得一個當地的戶口。雖然帶頭貸款的是國開行,但該行也是依靠人民銀行提供的低息融資,從2015年中到2017年底,人民銀行便提供了大概2兆人民幣的貸款給各地這類的項目。各地方政府擁有的商業銀行也跟進提供了大量資金。

換言之,直到貿易戰和美中對抗開始前,是中共自己主動養大這個已經變成怪獸的房地產泡沫來換取光鮮亮麗的短期經濟成長,而不是去進行代價高昂的痛苦改革來調整經濟體質,才造成今天這個無法收拾的局面。」

voicettank.org/%E6%81%86%E5%A4

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這麼大的危機事件, 即使沒有一整套完整解決方案, 好歹也要表個態吧? 但北京當局到目前為止都是作壁上觀, 好像在等最大尋租利益出現, 比外資更像外人.

“we think it is imperative for the government to provide clear communication on the plan regarding Evergrande and to shore up confidence among home buyers, suppliers and contractors, banks and other nonbank financial institutions,”

wsj.com/articles/chinas-regula

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今天傳出以海航模式處理的最新傳聞:

"《Asia Markets》報導,中國政府消息人士透露,中國政府正在介入恆大債務危機,恆大有可能被分成三個實體,最終決定或將在幾天內宣布。

報導指出,房地產巨頭有可能轉變為國有企業;根據消息人士透露,這項協議的用意在於保護購買恆大房產的一般民眾,以及恆大財富的投資人,最重要的是防止恆大破產對中國經濟的衝擊,這項重組計畫與恆大5年期債券利息到期日有關。"

ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breaking

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不曉得匯豐踩得有多深...

"對於這波中國地產股崩跌,凱爾巴斯在推特上用「banking crisis」是一語雙關,除了銀行因為放款給地產公司而慘遭倒帳的危機之外,從他標記匯豐銀行就暗示著,這些銀行還可能涉嫌非法貸款、超貸給這些地產公司,恐面臨司法上的調查和整肅,是另一種的「banking crisis」。"

【恆大們出列!一天暴跌87%不能再高了 華爾街大佬點名香港這家銀行涉超貸】
出處:信傳媒( cmmedia.com.tw/home/articles/2 )

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對匯豐執行長的空虛發言只想翻白眼:

「據報導,匯豐資產管理部門、貝萊德、瑞銀等公司一直是恆大債券的最大持有者。根據《彭博》彙編數據,匯豐約持有2億美元的恆大美元債券。」

ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breaking

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WSJ這篇新加坡出的稿被不救派認為是證明:

[ The officials characterized the actions being ordered as “getting ready for the possible storm,” saying that local-level government agencies and state-owned enterprises have been instructed to step in to handle the aftermath only at the last minute should Evergrande fail to manage its affairs in an orderly fashion. ]

wsj.com/articles/china-makes-p

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汪浩簡單點出恆大債務危機之所以是系統性風險而非單一企業或產業問題的成因:

「中國房地產是中國經濟支柱產業,穩增長必備:拉動GDP三成,貢獻財政四成,創造信用五成,是中國經濟內循環的核心動力。房地產的問題,絕不只是來自房地產,而是中國經濟增長模式、貨幣發行模式、信用創造模式、財政運行模式、國家和社會治理模式等種種問題的集中表現。 隨著人口懸崖和債務大爆發,房地產不斷的金融化,成為債務密集度畸高的行業。從拿地到開發,基本上都是依靠債務--房企開發貸+居民按揭貸。

中國的債務型經濟增長模式,經過金融深化與金融自由化,已經具備所有金融危機的動因。 中國房地產的高槓桿屬性,銀行放貸失控火上澆油,房價上漲抵押物升值會進一步助推銀行加大放貸,甚至主動說服客戶抵押貸、放槓桿。在世界歷史上,歷次房地產泡沫中銀行業都深陷其中,房地產危機既是金融危機也是經濟危機。」

fountmedia.io/article/129565?f

這篇認為當中國政府意識到投資效益低下後試圖用提高內需拉抬效益, 當投資集中於房市開始過熱後又嘗試以三條紅線等政策降溫, 於是地產開發商龍頭就這麼卡住了:

"Since 2008, it has needed ever more debt to deliver the same increment to economic output. Between 2008 and 2019, total debt—government, household and business—rose from 169% to 306% of gross domestic product, but GDP growth fell from 10% to 6%. Productivity growth adjusted for the expanding stock of buildings, machinery and other capital was 2.6% a year from 2000 to 2010. It has been negative since 2015, a sign of how inefficient much of that investment has been.

A few years ago Beijing recognized this model was unsustainable and has sought in fits and starts to shift to “higher quality” growth more dependent on consumers. That process was bound to be disruptive; indeed, it triggered a disorderly devaluation of the yuan in 2015, but it did succeed in slowing the buildup of debt.

Last year, to tide the economy through the pandemic, credit was loosened again. Yet Chinese officials see soaring housing prices as a threat to financial and social stability so they laid out a three-year timetable for lending to the red-hot property sector to be reined in. Just as the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate increases eventually popped the U.S. housing bubble over a decade ago, those regulatory restrictions, with a lag, popped China’s, said Gene Ma, head of China research at the Institute for International Finance. Evergrande was an early casualty since it is one of the most leveraged developers, he said."

wsj.com/articles/evergrandes-s

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等著看金融業者能雙邊失血支援多久。

"花旗集團估計,至今年底,中國銀行系統約41%資產直接或間接與房地產有關,房價走跌恐引發銀行資產的連鎖反應。中國銀行提供給開發商及購屋者的未償付貸款估計達50兆人民幣(215.27兆台幣)。"

"知情人士披露,官員要求銀行不可全面切斷對開發商的融資,應持續對營建中的計畫提供支持,並批准購買預售屋者的抵押貸款。"

ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breaking

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WSJ這篇用圖表具體指出中國房市泡沫與恆大事件的規模: 前者是美國2005年房市泡沫的翻倍($847 billion v. $1.6 trillion), 後者的開發項目樓地板面積總和約相當於513棟帝國大廈.

"Analysts have generally indicated an Evergrande default wouldn’t spur a crisis of confidence like the one that followed the Lehman Brothers collapse. But Evergrande is the largest property developer in a Chinese real-estate bubble that has been expanding for years. Investment over the past decade in China’s residential-property market has dwarfed the U.S. housing bubble of the 2000s, at least in terms of its share of domestic economic output."

wsj.com/articles/chinas-evergr

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中國房市的危機點: 大城市以外的房地產仰賴泡沫支撐.

"But property construction in smaller cities ran well ahead of demand from prospective occupants for the last five years in China, leaving the market increasingly dependent on speculators and investors to buy properties, said Logan Wright, China markets research director at Rhodium Group, a research firm based in New York. About 21% of homes in urban China were already vacant in 2017, which equated to 65 million empty units, according to data from China Household Finance Survey."

wsj.com/articles/evergrande-ch

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? 結果在恆大之後爆的竟然是一間完全沒聽過的中國地產商...

[ 惠誉将花样年的评级从“B”调降至“CCC-”并警告称,该公司财务状况存在不确定性,面临无法在周一偿还2.08亿美元的一个更受瞩目的国际债券的“重大”风险。

不过,最初的警报是由媒体报道引发的,媒体报道称花样年错过了9月28日到期的一笔1亿美元款项支付,这笔款项本应支付给那些对私人债券行使所谓“看跌”期权的债券持有人。" ]

reuters.com/article/china-prop

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比較吃驚WSJ這麼快能抓出花樣年的資料來, 該不會把中國前一百大的地產商資料都備好了吧...

"When compared with Evergrande, Fantasia is significantly smaller in size. Its sales in the first nine months of 2021 ranked 73rd among its domestic peers, while Evergrande was in third place, according to a market report by research firm CricChina."

wsj.com/articles/chinese-luxur

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不知道野村的預估是否包含影子銀行部位。

「野村預估,截至今年6月,中國開發商的債務已達5.2兆美元(約新台幣147.1兆)。最高比例為銀行貸款佔46%,債券市場則大約佔10%,包括相當於 2170億美元(約新台幣6.1兆)的美元債券,其中許多是垃圾債券。」

ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breaking

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看樣子應該是有包括在內。

“The real-estate giants have borrowed not only from banks but also from shadow-banking outfits known as trust companies and from individuals who put their savings into investments called wealth-management products. Abroad, they became a mainstay of international junk-bond markets, offering juicy yields to get deals done.”

wsj.com/articles/beyond-evergr

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趙君朔這集把最近的恆大危機連帶影響整理得很詳細:

youtu.be/GD2xrNTtxjw

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中國開發商危機名單新增佳兆業集團:

"Kaisa’s tumble takes its shares’ year-to-date losses to nearly 73% amid growing investor concerns about Chinese developers’ ability to refinance or repay billions of dollars in debt. Fitch and S&P Global Ratings both downgraded the already junk-rated Kaisa in October to CCC-plus, near the bottom of their ratings scales, citing refinancing risk."

wsj.com/articles/chinese-devel

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驚訝聯準會發這個示警:

「有鑒於中國經濟與金融系統的規模,以及其與世界其餘地方的廣大貿易連結,在風險情緒惡化之下,中國的金融壓力可能會讓全球金融市場感到緊張,對全球經濟成長構成風險,進而影響美國。」

cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202111090

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報告只有85頁, 恆大部分在第65頁:

"Stresses in China’s real estate sector could strain the Chinese financial system, with
possible spillovers to the United States

In China, business and local government debt remain large; the financial sector’s leverage is
high, especially at small and medium-sized banks; and real estate valuations are stretched. In
this environment, the ongoing regulatory focus on leveraged institutions has the potential to
stress some highly indebted corporations, especially in the real estate sector, as exemplified by
the recent concerns around China Evergrande Group. Stresses could, in turn, propagate to
the Chinese financial system through spillovers to financial firms, a sudden correction of real
estate prices, or a reduction in investor risk appetite. Given the size of China’s economy and
financial system as well as its extensive trade linkages with the rest of the world, financial
stresses in China could strain global financial markets through a deterioration of risk sentiment, pose risks to global economic growth, and affect the United States."

federalreserve.gov/publication

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有些理解為何此時示警了:

"In total, Chinese junk borrowers have about $197 billion of dollar debt outstanding, Goldman Sachs analysts have estimated. That means the ICE BofA index covers a little more than half of that total debt, implying the full losses for investors are considerably larger."

"Including cash from bond interest payments, the index has generated a total return of minus 28% so far this year, putting it on course for its worst performance since 2008. But this year’s selloff is much bigger in dollar terms, affecting far more investors. The total face value of the ICE BofA Asian Dollar High Yield Corporate China Issuers Index was just $3.2 billion at the end of 2008."

wsj.com/articles/chinese-junk-

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恆大的許家印還算肯負責的:

"報導指出,恆大在過去3天內總共出售了在香港上市的恆騰網絡集團有限公司約5.7%的股份,總計籌集約1.45億美元資金。上個月,恆大傳出出售兩架私人飛機,套現5000多萬美元。

在此之前,恆大於9月間出售了盛京銀行17.5億股的股份,取得99.93億元資金;恆大創辦人許家印日前傳出,已賣掉香港豪宅,用以償還已到期的債務。"

cna.com.tw/news/acn/2021110900

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外商銀開始收傘了:

"知情人士透露,客戶無法再使用佳兆業集團、富力地產、恆大集團、花樣年控股所發行以美元計價的債券(美元債券),作為瑞信和瑞銀的保證金貸款抵押品。因此事為內部決定,知情人士要求匿名。"

"知情人士表示,上述兩家銀行客戶中,已出現了一些被追繳保證金的情況。據指出,瑞信先前通常會為多元投資組合的這類證券提供50%-60%左右的槓桿。

報導指出,這股壓力始自於恆大債務危機,近幾週波及傳染至中國整個房地產行業,同時造成垃圾級和高評級債券借款人的損失。"

ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breaking

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WSJ開始將地方政府財政收入議題納入房地產危機的討論中:

"The risk for Beijing is in overestimating its ability to engineer outcomes in the economy, especially given Evergrande’s size.

The real-estate market is so entwined with China’s economy that any missteps could be dangerous. Home sales have fallen sharply recently, as buyers have become unnerved about the ability of many developers to stay afloat.

Falling land sales to developers are another concern, since such sales are a major source of public funds, accounting for more than 30% of local government revenue in 2020, according to financial-services firm Nomura."

wsj.com/articles/evergrande-ch

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趙君朔這集把美中金融交集的規模與商業環境推進做了深入淺出的說明:

youtu.be/mD8zT8AfrUc

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趙君朔這篇算是把影片中不及詳述的金融操作部位漏洞給補齊了:

"這些編制指數的機構只看一支股票的價值和流動性卻不考慮國家安全。所以如果指數中中共市場的比重調整,所能帶進來更多的被動投資會有一個不良後果:這些投資者在並非刻意的情況下把錢投進了從事危害美國國家安全行為的中共公司,這些外資還有可能把錢投錢進被美國貿易制裁的公司,如被放上實體清單的科大遜飛和大華科技。但它們的股票還包含在摩根史坦利的中國指數裡面。

更嚴重的是風險投資公司因為沒有公開揭露營運訊息的義務,很難知道風投和私募基金在中共境內的活動情況。少數幾個針對此類金融活動收集資料的機構如Preqin、Pitchbook和CB insight。但這些風投公布的資訊質量落差都很大,所以存在風險投資者的知識和專門技術被用來發展中共的科技和軍事現代化的國家安全疑慮。"

voicettank.org/%E7%BE%8E%E4%B8

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股匯債三點都幾近脫鉤,看來是為即將到來的金融爆炸做好閉鎖準備。

“考慮到外銷訂單作為外銷金額的先行指標,2022年前3季,中國再以外銷支撐經濟的期待可能落空,屆時中國經濟成長減緩,將是難以逆轉的趨勢。

面對未來外銷沒訂單的狀況,中國政府除了對內大放水之外,最優先的動作是力保人民幣匯率。怎麼做呢?首先是進一步堵住資金外流的漏洞,再來是抓捕協助資金外流的人。”

“人民銀行又發了另外一個通知,提醒企業與金融機構不要炒匯,進行外匯交易,須以保值為目的進行操作,而非增值。人民銀行這則通知,更多的是一種擔憂。”

“對華爾街投資者來說,中國股票在全球市場面對的巨大政治監管風險,將使中國企業不再具備從全球市場得到美元融資的可能。”

“中資民營企業的海外債券市場融資的管道已經被自己全面堵死,2022年第1季即使沒有觸發較大規模的債務違約,企業還債成本只會大幅上升。在美元債券融資的市場,中國企業與海外投資者已經完成脫鉤。”

wealth.com.tw/articles/4ce366c

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中國監管單位也瞄準了中國企業在瑞士發行的全球存託憑證:

"Since last year, 13 companies from China have raised $4.3 billion by selling so-called global depositary receipts in Switzerland. That dwarfs the $1 billion that Chinese companies raised via American initial public offerings since the start of 2022, according to Dealogic data. At least 30 more Chinese companies have applied to sell GDRs abroad, according to a review of regulatory filings conducted by Goldman Sachs’s research analysts."

"Since last year, the Chinese securities regulator has regularly quizzed Swiss GDR listing applicants about the potential makeup of GDR investors and how the conversion of GDRs into their Chinese underlying shares would affect the market, according to application feedback posted on the regulator’s website.

Companies have been holding off from submitting GDR filings in anticipation that the CSRC could issue new guidelines for such listings, several deal makers said, though the regulator recently approved existing applications for a few such deals."

wsj.com/articles/swiss-listing

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苟延殘喘到十二月終於正式開爆:

"當恆大公告無法履行一筆2.6億美元(約台幣73億)債務後,無疑開啟債務違約大門,廣東省人民政府約談許家印後,隨即宣布派出工作組進駐恆大摸底。不到半小時,央行、銀保監會、證監會、住建部等部門都發表立場,支持廣東省政府。"

ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breaking

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外界比較像把人行這波操作看作示警而非救火:

"The central bank’s move, which came sooner than some economists expected, signals growing concern about an economy that is losing momentum, particularly because of the weakening property market, which accounts for about a quarter of China’s economic activities. Sales by China’s top 100 developers dropped for the fifth straight month in November, shedding 37.6% in value from a year earlier, according to China Real Estate Information Corp."

wsj.com/articles/chinas-centra

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趙君朔也在昨天提到了人行調降存款準備率的不妙:

youtu.be/e2KngbtgTUE

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有些驚訝人行這麼快連兩波操作, 看來底層經濟情況確實不太妙?

"中國金融業界分析,人行下調支農、支小再貸款利率,將有助於降低中國中小銀行的資金成本、引導這些中小銀行降低「三農(農業、農村和農民)」和小微企業貸款利率;此外,人行希望在保持貨幣總量適度寬鬆情況下,透過結構性工具,針對性支持實體經濟。"

"根據中國人行網站公告,這次降準共計釋放長期資金約1.2兆元人民幣(約5.2兆台幣),金融機構加權平均存款準備金率將由8.9%降至8.4%;其「穩健」貨幣政策取向沒有改變,釋放的一部分資金將被金融機構用於歸還到期的中期借貸便利(MLF),還有一部分被金融機構用於補充長期資金。

瑞銀經濟學家汪濤等人報告指出,中共中央政治局政策基調的調整明確表明,中國高層領導人認識到了「經濟下行壓力」,中國人行雖重申穩健貨幣政策立場,但此次降準實際上發出了「貨幣政策寬鬆」的明確信號。"

ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breaking

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疫情期間的農產企業大舉擴張恐怕也是爛攤之一:

"據報導,投資者因此普遍懷疑牧原財務報告的真實性,並質疑該公司聲稱今年以來收入500多億元,第3季末還持有近百億元現金,為何區區2000多萬元商票逾期都拿不出來?剛剛才發行95.5億元可轉債,為何還要再借700億元?

陸媒證券之星指出,牧原是真的缺錢,而缺錢的原因是牧原仍處在擴張階段且槓桿用得太猛了。

報導指出,2015年,牧原在4個省養豬,子公司數量為16家;2019年增加到全國18個省份養豬,子公司達到138個。今年上半年,牧原已在全國成立子公司230家 分佈24個省份。"

money.udn.com/money/story/5604

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被網美一針見血指出"現在全世界降準的只有土耳其跟中國欸"這點而笑翻~

youtu.be/QzoNhGRY6fQ

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WSJ對之前人行降率放水的效果不甚看好:

[ Chinese leaders appear to realize that to implement additional painful reforms at this point risks cutting economic growth further—in a politically sensitive year when President Xi Jinping is widely expected to seek a third term in power. Thus, to ensure political stability, Chinese leaders are likely to put on hold new forms of tightening, as well as changes aimed at narrowing social inequalities.

“The chance for Beijing to launch new hawkish regulations is getting much less likely this year,” says Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley.

Many economists expect Beijing to set a growth target of at least 5% to help stabilize expectations ahead of the party congress, to be held sometime in the fall.]

wsj.com/articles/china-economy

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某種壓制通縮的操作感:

"報導說,四川、吉林、內蒙古、山東等地多家村鎮銀行陸續宣布,6月起調降部分期限的定期存款利率。

這是今年銀行定存利率第3輪降息潮,4至6月間,每逢月初均有銀行密集宣布降息,4月初,河南、廣東、湖北多家中小銀行開第一槍。

5月初則是輪到浙商銀行、恆豐銀行、渤海銀行,國有行、股份行定存掛牌利率,大體而言可說是已向下告別3開頭的時代。"

cna.com.tw/news/acn/2023060601

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兩年後的中國經濟局勢已需改打降息貶值連環拳:

"周二,中國央行下調了兩個關鍵貸款利率,令市場感到意外,同時也表明中國經濟需要更多的提振。降息後不久,離岸人民幣跌破1美元兌人民幣7.31元,為今年以來最弱水平,隨後略有回升。"

cn.wsj.com/articles/%E4%BA%BA%

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紐時這篇有點到降息措施的關鍵受益者:

"Last week, the central bank lowered borrowing costs for commercial banks by 0.15 percentage points. By making a more modest cut in the lending rates, policymakers were, in effect, widening the profit margins for banks."

"上週,央行將商業銀行的借貸成本下調了0.15個百分點。通過更溫和地降低貸款利率,政策制定者實際上擴大了銀行的利潤率。"

cn.nytimes.com/business/202308

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爆開後的外界看法不甚樂觀:

"標普董事Esther Liu週二在線上研討會上表示,中國政府下調金融機構存準率不足以讓部分信用評級為「B或以下」的房地產開發商免於違約;因為中國恆大集團債務危機蔓延風險,投資者已變得更有選擇性,這些中國開發商借款人已經面臨融資困境。"

ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breaking

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恆大案外案:足球國族主義~

"中國足球發展喜歡與日本做比較,各豪門球隊買下高價外籍球員乃至推動歸化時,都會以「日本也曾出現」作為合理化的理由。

J聯賽成立之初,確實曾出現這些現象。不過J聯賽成立之前,在規章制度做了很多考究與辯論,J聯賽在起點就跟中超有大的差異。其主要差異有三:

一是「強調與地方的連結」:每個俱樂部選定某個地方作為發展基地,也以此作為青訓的搖籃;
二是「球隊冠名中性化」:球隊名稱中不得出現企業名稱,這個作法與地方連結相輔相成,例如今年冠軍川崎前鋒,名字中就沒有企業名稱。J聯賽成立之初,《讀賣新聞》也有意加入,但就是卡在不得加入企業名稱,最後放棄;

三是「嚴格的財務監管」:J聯賽俱樂部是股份制,不是某個集團專屬的球隊。此外俱樂部連續三年財務赤字,將會失去聯賽資格,現今最受注目的就是鳥栖砂岩的債務危機。

在這些機制之下,雖然曾出現部份俱樂部高價買來外籍球員的情況,但在財務考量下其他俱樂部未必都會跟隨。此外更重要的是青訓,大批年輕的好手出現之後,就可強化俱樂部實力,旅歐俱樂部也有轉會費的收入。空缺下來的位置,再由新人來補,如此形成良性循環。

這些都是中超的功課,但還有一個根本的問題:中超背後的管理者是足協,但兩者應該是分工的關係,中超是依循運動產業的市場邏輯運作,足協是掌管國家足球的推展與國家隊組成。在中國,足協主席就是足球界最大的官。但何時去掉官本位?這不僅是中超的根本問題,也是社會問題。"

global.udn.com/global_vision/s

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恆大債務重組方案可能被當成地方政府解除各自房企地雷團的套用解方:

"The Guangzhou-based developer, the most indebted property company in the world, has agreed on the outlines of a deal that will give it breathing room by extending its debt maturities while allowing it to defer some coupon payments, the people said.

The deal would finally bring a resolution to the highest-profile debt restructuring negotiation in China’s property sector, which has suffered dozens of dollar bond defaults in the last two years after a sharp slowdown in sales. Chinese real-estate firms missed payments on more than $30 billion worth of international bonds in 2022, according to S&P Global Ratings, and investors said Evergrande’s restructuring could set a template for other debt workouts. "

wsj.com/articles/chinese-devel

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總算對恆大的債務規模有比較明確的概念....

"台灣房地產欠最多錢的是鄭欽天的興富發,總負債1742億元,對比恆大約11兆台幣,比起來只有恆大的1.58%,如果用國家的外債來比,外滙存底大約剩下30億美元的阿根廷,外債是2750.93億美元,約1.986兆人民幣,比恆大少。再拿俄羅斯來比,俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭後,外債急降到3579億美元,約2.584兆人民幣,已經和恆大在伯仲之間。

一家恆大負債和俄羅斯,阿根廷旗鼓相當,這恐怕是世界罕見的紀錄。更可怕的是,理論上,恆大早就資不抵債,理應破產清算,可是在中國特殊體制下,恆大想倒卻不能倒。"

facebook.com/permalink.php?sto

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碧桂園跳票了...

"據了解,未能如期支付的兩筆債券分別為碧桂園 4.2% N20260206(ISIN:XS2210960022)和碧桂園 4.8% N20300630(ISIN:XS2210960378)。該兩筆債券在新加坡交易所上市,發行規模均為5億美元,到期日分別為2026年2月6日和2030年8月6日;聯席全球協調人、聯席帳簿管理人及聯席牽頭經辦人為摩根士丹利、摩根大通、高盛(亞洲)(B&D)、瑞銀集團、渣打銀行、里昂證券。"

money.udn.com/money/story/5603

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美金兌離岸人民幣的匯率應聲從7.2跳到7.23,等著看接來能否守住7.24關卡。 :ablobthinking:

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"即使碧桂園能夠在未來幾週內支付這些債券的利息,它也還沒有擺脫困境。評級機構穆迪表示,今年剩餘時間裡,該公司每月都有債券償還,到2024年底,該公司欠中國投資者的債券約為24億美元,欠外國投資者的債券約為20億美元。"

"Even if Country Garden manages to make the interest payments on these bonds in the coming weeks, it is not out of the woods. It has bond payments due every month for the rest of the year, according to Moody’s, and some $2.4 billion of bonds owed to investors in China and $2 billion of bonds owed to foreign investors by the end of 2024."

cn.nytimes.com/business/202308

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喔喔!結局終章用在美申請破產保護這招作為開局太有戲了~

“恆大集團當地時間週四於美國紐約,依據美國破產法第15章申請破產保護,該法允許美國法院承認涉及外企的破產或債務重組程序,保護外企於美國的資產,免受債權人的侵害,同時進行重組協議。

據悉,恆大旗下子公司天基控股(Tianji Holding Ltd.)以及景程(Scenery Journey Limited)亦同時申請破產保護。”

nownews.com/news/6232217

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恆大海外債權人早先達成的協議內容:

"Overseas creditors eventually agreed to a consensual deal in the spring of this year. Holders of the developer’s $19 billion in foreign debt can choose to swap their holdings into new long-term debt or take some principal losses and get a mix of shorter-term bonds and equity-linked notes backed by shares of Evergrande or two of its listed subsidiaries, including China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group."

wsj.com/articles/china-evergra

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瑞幸咖啡成功就靠這招被收購後東山再起:

"包括佳兆業、當代置業、榮盛發展等房企,瑞幸咖啡、華晨電力、協鑫新能源等企業,均在美元債重組過程中依美國《美國破產法》第15章聲請破產保護。

企業在美國聲請破產保護,對於海外債權人來說,他們需要透過美國的破產程序來維護自己的權益,對於中國債權人來說,企業在海外的破產保護程序,意味著他們與企業的債權糾紛,將面臨更複雜的跨境處理程序和時間成本。"

ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breaking

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中國開始處理房地產殭屍王:

"報導強調,其實恆大地產被立案調查後,恆大就知道不能發行新票據。無法發行新票據,就是沒法再發債借錢,意味著從融資端堵住了恆大的輸血管道,也意味著恆大境外債務重組或將以失敗告終。

此前,恆大債務重組表決會議一再延後,9月22日直接告稱,由於銷售情況不如預期,債務重組會議將不會舉行。

陸媒北向財經報導也指出,恆大財富負責人杜亮16日被警方採取強制措施;恆大債務重組會議22日被擱置;恆大24日公告無法滿足新票據的發行資格,「如同三把利劍,每一把都直指恆大的命門。」"

cna.com.tw/news/acn/2023092703

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遼寧吃下的恆大壞帳部位連一成都不到:

“市場猜算,盛京銀行在過去一直向恒大輸血,甚至可能存在違規放貸的情況,而恒大在離場後給該行留下了一大堆不良資產,但為了不讓盛京銀行發生金融風險,瀋陽市需要想辦法解決問題,只能通過遼寧資產去收購恒大在盛京銀行的不良資產,類似於2019年山東省處理恒豐銀行風險的模式。

  不過這對地方財政造成巨大隱患,因為在交易完成後,遼寧資產不但欠了盛京銀行1760億元,而且每年還得支付約40億元的利息,而遼寧資產背後的遼寧省財政廳,能夠從恒大身上要回來的壞帳可能屈指可數,這相當於用政府的錢為恒大兜底,不但存在道德爭議,還有可能拖垮地方財政,最後只能是當地人買單。”

news.cnyes.com/news/id/5339289

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@Perfume

到底是誰在承接中國這類廠商的抛售
為什麼敢接?

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