Perfume @Perfume@qoto.org
2024/02/29停用。
Joined Nov 2020
山東艦以練代訓的方式來累積作戰實力:
"日本防衛省六日進一步指出，山東艦十月廿八日至十一月五日的九天期間，在太平洋、日本宮古群島和菲律賓東部海域，完成約四二○架次戰機起降和一五○架次直升機起降的訓練後已駛向南海。"
中國特色的放款:
"AidData表示，中國管理還款風險的1種方式，是透過銀行控制外幣現金託管帳戶，這讓中國債務能優先被解決，這也代表著包括多邊開發銀行在內的其他貸款機構，在任何協調債務減免的過程，可能被列為第2順位。
AidData揭露，主要在非洲的15個國家託管帳戶，在2023年6月達到高峰，總額25億美元（約新台幣806.1億元）。調查也發現，價值6140億美元（約新台幣19.7兆元）的抵押貸款，而現金是中國貸方所需抵押品的主要來源，這表明託管帳戶當中的金額可能遠高於25億美元（約新台幣806.1億元）。
另外，中國海外貸款的目的地也出現變化，對非洲貸款，從2018年佔總額的31％，到2021年降至12％，對歐洲國家的貸款則幾乎翻倍，達到23％。"
隨著中國一帶一路規模與風險擴大，其貸款性質也隨之變化:
"The International Monetary Fund says in a separate report focused specifically on sub-Saharan Africa that the poor region has benefited from ties to China through a quadrupling of exports since 2000, mostly in the form of raw materials. In turn, the IMF said China has become the largest bilateral official creditor to the region as it emerged as a new source of infrastructure funding, but that the debt is highly concentrated in just a few nations. “It is noteworthy that the debt owed to China has not been the principal contributor to the region’s public debt surge in the past 15 years,” an increase primarily due to domestic commercial borrowing, the IMF said.
國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund, IMF)在另一份專門針對撒哈拉以南非洲的報告中稱，該貧困地區從與中國的關係中受益，自2000年以來，對中國的出口額翻了兩番，其中大部分是原材料；而隨著中國成為該地區基礎設施資金的新來源地，該國已成為這一地區最大的雙邊官方債權人，但這些債務高度集中在少數幾個國家。IMF表示，值得注意的是，欠中國的債務並不是過去15年該地區公共債務激增的主要原因，債務增加主要是國內商業借貸導致的。"
"吳治達說，台灣鄉村自殺率高於都會區，但鄉村民眾擁有綠地數量可能比都市的人多，影響自殺率不同因素就必需校正。
統計顯示，綠地面積愈大、綠地邊緣形狀較簡單、綠地間距離較近或聯通，對減少不同鄉鎮自殺風險有顯著效果；平均綠地每增加1％面積，自殺率就能下降0.2％，例如某一地區10年自殺死亡1000人，綠地增加1％，死亡人數可降為998人。"
BBC這篇幫忙清點台灣國防病灶：
“The list of problems is long. Taiwan's army has hundreds of ageing battle tanks, but too few modern, light missile systems. Its army command structure, tactics and doctrine haven't been updated in half a century. Many front-line units have only 60% of the manpower they should have.
Taiwan's counter-intelligence operations in China are reportedly non-existent and its military conscription system is broken.”
日本卅年來固樁越南累積規模也是蠻驚人的：
“越南今年5月和日本簽署3個政府開發援助計畫，總額約5億美元。日本是越南最大的政府開發援助提供國，自1992年起已經為越南提供約216億美元的政府開發援助貸款與技術協助等。”
"Menopause could represent a time when women feel maximum control of our bodies, free at last from the risk of being forced to carry an unwanted pregnancy. And yet for many women, menopause becomes a new struggle to control our bodies, not because of legislation or religion but because of a lack of knowledge on our part, and also on the part of our doctors. Menopause presents not just a new stage of life but also a state of confusion. At a time when we have the right to feel seasoned, women are thrust into the role of newbie, or worse, medical detective, in charge of solving our own problems.
女性本應在更年期感覺到對自己的身體有了最大的控制權，我們至少終於可以擺脫被迫意外懷孕的風險了。然而，對許多女性來說，更年期成為了一場新的控制我們身體的鬥爭，這不是因為立法或宗教，而是因為我們和醫生都缺乏相關知識。更年期不僅是人生的一個新階段，也是一種困惑的狀態。在我們有權感到自己經驗豐富的時候，女性卻被迫成為了一個新手，更糟的是還要承擔起一個醫學偵探的角色，負責解決我們自己的問題。"
https://cn.nytimes.com/health/20231106/menopause-hot-flashes-hormone-therapy/zh-hant/dual/
繼歸還文物之後，澳洲破冰暖心之舉第二回:
"Australia, in turn, recently announced that — after a lengthy security review — it would not cancel a Chinese company’s 99-year lease of the northern port of Darwin.
反過來澳洲也在最近宣布，經過長時間的安全審查後，將不會取消一家中國公司對澳洲北部的達爾文港長達99年租約。"
https://cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20231106/china-xi-albanese-relations/zh-hant/dual/
看來中國繼續砸錢做半導體產業鏈的大方向沒有變:
"Before the pandemic, China’s banks were increasing their lending to real estate by more than $700 billion a year. In the 12 months through September, the total loans outstanding to real estate fell slightly. Banks lent less to developers, and households paid off old mortgages while taking out fewer new ones.
By comparison, net lending to industrial companies skyrocketed from $63 billion in the first nine months of 2019 to $680 billion in the first nine months of this year. That money has gone partly toward building a semiconductor industry that may allow China to wean itself from imports and bypass American export controls, as well as toward categories like electric car manufacturing and shipbuilding."
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/06/business/china-economy-property-crisis.html
日本對於兩強聯航頻率拉高保持警戒:
"日本警戒監視由2006年成立的統合幕僚監部（類似國防部參謀本部）負責指揮，並針對航行在津輕海峽、對馬海峽及沖繩本島與宮古島間等海上要衝的外國艦艇公布動向。
統合幕僚監部2007年首度公布外國艦艇動向，當年僅有兩件；到了2022年全年共公布131件，今年截至11月5日止也已公布112件。"
前期需要大量資本投入的產業可能會更小心評估中國市場:
"For some industries, it isn’t a simple choice to pivot back to business as usual with Beijing, despite the size of its market and a record of often paying premium prices for Australian products. Building new supply chains away from China cost time and money.
Cotton growers recently shipped as much to Vietnam as they did to China, which had been their biggest market before an unofficial ban that began in 2020. Barley farmers, hit with punitive tariffs as China-Australia ties soured, found new markets including in Saudi Arabia. Sales of Australian wine to China totaled less than $5 million over the past year, compared with a peak of $770 million, due to sky-high tariffs that China last month said are now under review."
泰國媒體也注意到日本正努力實邊至東協各國:
"馬尼拉盼望向日本增購5艘大型巡邏艦。分析稱，在中菲海上衝突頻繁的現狀下，菲律賓急於擴大海上力量，同時希望減少對中國的經濟依賴，以減少競爭對手國家在外交談判時予以施壓或制裁的籌碼。"
VOA詳細介紹了中財辦新傀儡:
“中国政府今年要面对的、很严峻的挑战就是失业、外资、外贸，包括出口、投资、就业，这个其实是绑在一起的，那这个东西不解决，它政权的稳定性，基础其实就不存在，但是同时他(习近平)又要维持他(左倾)路线的一贯性。我认为，甚至到2024、2025年之前，他的左的路线会停留在政策宣示，但是他有没有条件实行所谓的左的路线，显然是没有。”
不曉得何時才能全數淘汰...
"「超級大黃蜂」戰機短場起降、高酬載的特性，使不少學者認為其非常適合台灣作戰環境，且只需稍加改造，即可用於陸地機場起降。不過，我國空軍選擇幻象2000戰機延壽的理由，恐怕還是採購該型機時，同時採購一大批專屬的雲母飛彈、魔法飛彈，在部分飛彈藥柱尚未過期的情況下，汰換幻象戰機將造成「有彈無機」的窘境。隨著更換飛彈藥柱的火工設備來台，幻象戰機的延壽升級，自然也在意料之中，至少服役到飛彈藥柱再次過期之後，才有退役的可能。"
紅色資金滲入民調:
"羅再問，有無台灣民調單位的學者、負責人被中共邀請過去？有無民調單位的資金來源來自中國？蔡明彥強調，「據他了解，也有」。這些都有在注意，重點在於金流部分，有些公司在對岸或海外，「尋找金流斷點是我們關注部分」。
羅致政批，依法中國不能在台灣製作節目，即便是中媒駐點人員也不能租用攝影棚去拍攝節目？蔡明彥說，這裡面有模糊空間；羅追問，台灣名嘴錄製中國節目的價碼，是不是高出台灣節目給的非常多，大概多1、2萬元？蔡明彥回答，這沒有辦法證實，因為價碼涉及情資，但有注意到這個狀況。"
鼓勵年青畢業生下鄉的政策開始被外媒注意到了:
"Instilling Party ideology in young people is especially important at a time when the Party fears many unemployed youths are becoming disenchanted with China’s direction.
The expectation is that graduates will more closely align their careers with the needs of the state, even if that means settling for lower-paying jobs in rural areas."
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-youth-unemployed-xi-mao-countryside-075bbd46?mod=hp_lead_pos7
菲律賓以後將有美軍九個基地加上日本九套雷達:
"日本共同社報導，日方提供的監視雷達將部署在菲國五個海岸地區，並採固定模式，供菲國海軍進行海岸監視。之前日本已開始向菲國出口四套防空雷達，未來菲國海、空域都會有監視網。"
資本淨流出長短期皆然，大勢煞不住:
"Recent surveys of U.S., European and Japanese companies in China show executives are souring on new investments there, unnerved by the prospect of conflict with Taiwan and China’s efforts to tighten oversight of foreign firms operating within its borders. Overall foreign direct investment in China was negative in the third quarter, with outflows of capital exceeding inflows by $11.8 billion—the first negative quarterly outflow recorded in balance-of-payments data that starts in 1998."
"More recently, global investors have also become net sellers of stocks listed in mainland China. From August to October, they pulled more than $23 billion from yuan-denominated shares via a trading link between Hong Kong and stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen, according to data provider Wind. "
印度與菲律賓在半年後的南海合作新進展:
"菲律賓總統府五日證實，印度駐菲大使庫瑪朗（Shambhu Kumaran）上週拜會菲國總統小馬可仕，表示印度政府、菲國海巡隊與交通部已就印度提供七架直升機，供菲國海巡隊搜救和人道援助展開磋商，小馬可仕表示歡迎。"
中國人口需要重質重量但遇到只會想著加量不加價的習大個兒....
"前上海社會科學院常務副院長兼經濟研究所所長左學金4日出席「中國與世界經濟學術研討會」時坦承，中國人口變動的主要風險，已經從人口數量過多和成長過快，轉向持續負成長、極低生育率與快速高齡化。人口模型的模擬結果顯示，假設中國人口總和生育率從2015年的1.55，線性成長到2040年維持人口穩定所需的2.1，並在此後維持不變，人口負成長趨勢必須等到2097年才能逆轉。
但左學金指出，由於中國實際生育率已經遠低於研究假設，中國生育率在2040年回升到2.1的可能性極小，因此人口負成長有極大可能將持續到下個世紀。"
2024/02/29停用。
Joined Nov 2020
