Perfume @Perfume@qoto.org
2024/02/29停用。
Joined Nov 2020
墨西哥最高法院將墮胎除罪化:
“Mexico’s decision represents a turning point that Latin America and the Caribbean are making in recognizing women’s rights to abortion as a matter of fundamental rights and reproductive rights,”
美中的中南美洲角力:
"From the development of these relationships, the pressure on the federal government on issues of interest to China is exercised by internal allies (municipalities and state governments tied to advantageous partnerships and companies concerned with regulations that could harm or improve their export flows). Thus, the source of the Chinese lobby is not the Chinese government itself, but local players with clear interests in maintaining or expanding healthy and profitable relationships. This is much more effective, as the strain on bilateral relations is occasionally neutralized."
"The key is to understand the medium- and long-term strategy and offer alternatives for engagement. Solid and sincere partnerships between the U.S. and Latin American governments, with a focus on opportunities and not just problems, would generate a more fluid dialogue, which could encourage Latin American leaders to more seriously consider the warnings issued by Washington regarding China’s influence. Furthermore, if it cannot fight on all fronts (commercial, economic, financial), the U.S. can focus on what is most important in the medium term."
https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/the-us-still-doesnt-understand-chinas-strategy-in-latin-america/
沒想到印度海軍已經談妥這麼多軍事後勤協議了:
"Today, India has such military logistics agreements with Australia, Japan, the United States – the Quad countries – as well as with France, Singapore, and South Korea. India is currently in the process of finalizing such an agreement with the U.K. and in talks with other partners like Vietnam.
These agreements go a long way in expanding India’s military reach, especially maritime outreach and influence in various regions that are strategically important to India. On a practical note, it saves enormous time and reduces overall costs of the lengthy bookkeeping exercises that the militaries have to otherwise do with each visit, such as when the respective militaries are involved in operations like humanitarian assistance and disaster relief or even bilateral military exercises. "
https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/indias-military-outreach-military-logistics-agreements/
這篇點出了俄中支持塔利班的關鍵差異:
"Moscow hosted a Taliban delegation for the talks on July 9 in order to exchange recent information. It was the second get-together between the two sides in 2021, following a meeting in January. Unlike the China-Taliban meeting, however, which had a more bilateral agenda, the two summits in Russia were conducted within the framework the Doha Agreement, with the participation of other powers."
"Russia, by contrast, is focused more on security than economic prospects. When the Taliban retook power, Putin immediately contacted his Uzbek counterpart, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, to discuss the escalation. Earlier, both states had held joint military drills on August 2. On August 5, Moscow conducted trilateral military exercises on the Afghan border with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, with former being a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and a host to Russia regional military outpost."
https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/great-game-redux-in-afghanistan/
順手補[ 原來北京首都機場改建也是靠日本金援嗎] 的ODA:
"中國長期以來，一直利用「開發中國家」的身分，向西方陣營的已開發國家，索取援助。不只德國，日本自昭和54年（1979年）起，也長年透過ODA（政府開發援助）援助中國，包括：北京首都國際機場就是靠日本的ODA，在1999年大改建，並增建第二航廈，才有現在的規模。據日本統計，日本的對中ODA，迄今已超過3.65兆日圓（超過1兆元台幣），諷刺的是，多數中國人並不知道，包括北京首都機場在內，中國許多基礎建設（如：鐵路、港口）都是靠日本的ODA蓋的。而中國政府也一手拿日本的錢，一邊透過反日教育，大力鼓吹仇日。"
https://tw.appledaily.com/international/20190921/H6BJRLSRB3O643TWKOZV4XSMDI/
上述報導的中文版:
[ 李律师说，猎狐行动的起源往往是地方性的博弈，目标都是相对来说无足轻重的人物。
“这些是地方政治斗争的产物，”李进进说，“他们把这些人当作逃犯追捕，是因为中央政府设立了目标，而地方政府为了政治目的想要实现这个目标。” ]
美國媒體的報導多少點出了去年眾所矚目的駐美戰狼部何以成為醒目外交戰場:
"Beijing led the crusade, but many of the traveling apprehension teams came from the provinces. Chinese embassies and consulates overseas helped them while maintaining deniability. If hunters like Hu succeeded, it enhanced their careers and helped spread Xi’s message that there were no safe havens. If they failed, the central government was insulated."
難怪日本會放話要台日聯合軍演了:
"軍事專家呂禮詩在臉書分享日本防衛省統合幕僚監部公布的報告，指解放軍東部戰區海軍主力052D飛彈驅逐艦「淄博號」（舷號156）及現代級飛彈驅逐艦「杭州號」（舷號136），在3日分別通過宮古海峽，5日會合052C飛彈驅逐艦「鄭州號」（舷號151）後通過台灣和與那國島間的海域北駛。
呂禮詩引述《產經新聞》上月底報導，解放軍自去年底開始常態部署1艘軍艦在台灣東部海域，另部署2艘軍艦在釣魚台北方北緯27度線以北的東海。至於5日通過的主力戰艦，是日本定位的「提高軍事緊張的行動」。"
「澳洲智庫澳洲戰略政策研究所（Australian Strategic Policy Institute，ASPI）最近指出，中國在 2010 年至 2020 年期間對 27 個國家以及歐盟使用了 152 次脅迫手段。此外，中國也在加強對國內外商業部門的控制。
在中國利用經濟影響力脅迫他國的情況下，美蘇冷戰時的戰略競爭態勢又回歸了。」
一年內換四個司令太異常了：
「蹊蹺之一是西部戰區在不到一年之內，換了4任司令。
去年4月，已屆65歲之齡的西部戰區司令趙宗岐到11月仍在超期服役，同年12月時年58歲的中部戰區副司令張旭東接任，當月在北京晉升上將。但剛過半年，今年6月張旭東就被比他僅年輕4個月的戰區陸軍司令徐起零取代。
文章引述消息說，張旭東是因健康原因而無法履職，徐起零的上將晉升儀式7月5日在北京舉行；但是不過兩個月，徐起零的戰區司令一職又被汪海江取代。汪海江比徐起零年輕3個月，據內部消息，徐起零的健康也出了問題。
西部戰區在共軍5大戰區中轄區面積最大，司令部設在四川成都，是對印度、阿富汗的最前線，連續兩任司令健康出問題，令外界十分關注。」
法國與印度的太空領域合作其來有自：
＂According to Indian media reports, one key area that will be part of the dialogue is ways and means to protect space assets. The rapid growth of counter-space capabilities by China is a serious development that India, France, Japan, and the U.S. have been grappling with. China’s growing inventory of counter-space capabilities is something the Indo-Pacific powers can no longer ignore. Although China has repeatedly reiterated that its space program is purely peaceful, India as well as other Indo-Pacific space powers remain concerned about China’s recent advances in outer space because of the inherent strategic and security risks. The social, economic, and security stakes of China’s counter-space capabilities are sufficiently challenging for India and France as well as other space players to come together and develop a shared sense of gaps and vulnerabilities that they may be exposed to. This competition and risks are only likely to grow in the coming years as outer space is increasingly caught up in the changing geopolitics and major power competition. ＂
https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/india-france-agree-on-space-security-dialogue/
不僅伊朗, 北韓與阿富汗其實面臨同樣的外交困境:
[ There is a misconception in Iran’s foreign policy that merely being a part of the different regional bodies in neighborhood regions, including Eurasia, could spontaneously break the “sanctions wall” and lead to diversified fruitful foreign relations. It is hard to imagine any real, meaningful accomplishments will result from multilateral platforms such as the SCO, Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), rather than Iran’s bilateral relations with Russia and China. Instead, Iran’s insistence on having a seat at the table only generates more leverage for Moscow and Beijing to bolster the country’s overreliance on the East.
Efforts to gain a seat in these largely ineffective initiatives, where Russia and China are the dominant stakeholders and it is nearly impossible for Tehran to seek tangible and achievable goals, does nothing but waste the limited diplomatic resources of the country. In terms of trade and economics, which matter the most to Iran, Eurasian great initiatives like the Russian-led EAEU and China’s BRI haven’t even brought about even significant developments in Beijing-Moscow bilateral relations or even regional institutional coordination of the two initiatives, despite lip service in that regard.]
https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/why-is-iran-so-keen-on-joining-the-sco/
面對中國的軍事擴張，日本即使內閣更迭也不會改變自衛底線:
[ “Can we protect the lives of the people by watching silently as Japan gets hit?” Mr. Kishida said. “Don’t we need to have the ability to block the other side’s missile attack ability? That’s the problem I’m pointing out.”
...
He expressed concern about hypersonic missiles that can cruise at low altitude and change direction if needed—such as China’s DF-17. “The other side’s technology is advancing every day,” he said, and updating Japan’s defenses “is a very important political issue.” ]
這位日本參議員說得好直白:
"佐藤也說，根據衛星照片，中共視日本沖繩嘉手納的空軍基地為攻擊目標，並在甘肅沙漠複製這個基地進行模擬訓練。原因之一是台灣中部有中央山脈，而台灣東部花蓮屬縱谷地形較不易進攻，中共軍機若要穿越宮古海峽進攻花蓮軍事基地，必須先「清理」沖繩戰場。
佐藤表示，台灣若被中共封鎖，日韓經過台海及巴士海峽的石油生命航運線將受威脅，造成石油短缺和油價飆升，嚴重衝擊日本經濟。北韓可能在朝鮮半島挑起戰端，俄羅斯也可能趁虛而入，對具爭議的北方領土有所動作。中共、俄羅斯及北韓也可能合作，日本應事先擬定好對策。
佐藤分析，在台灣有事的緊急情況下，中共將多方分散日本及美國軍隊，阻止美日軍隊在台集結。為了反制，西方國家在東協及印度洋的軍隊需向中國施壓，分散解放軍軍力。美軍第七艦隊與日本海上自衛隊的合作也極為重要。"
"《衛報》報導，澳洲迪肯大學學者在「Trends in Ecology & Evolution」期刊上發布的研究成果顯示，動物已開始經由演化適應全球暖化現象，例如在澳洲的鸚鵡身上發現，用於散熱的鳥喙尺寸自1871年以來增加了4至10％；棲身於北美的暗眼燈草鵐的鳥喙尺寸也證明與短期極端寒冷環境有關。
除了鳥類，哺乳類身上也能發現此現象，包括小林姬鼠的尾巴和鼩鼱的腿部尺寸增加，蝙蝠的翅膀也是如此。"
西太平洋正興起潛艦部隊打造競賽:
"潛艦雖然以單艦隱密行動為最大特點，但絕對不是單打獨鬥，背後都有龐大的支援部隊，以協助潛艦發揮最大戰力。除了蒐集敵方艦艇聲紋的間諜船外，擁有世界上最龐大核動力潛艦部隊的美軍，還有專屬的潛艦支援艦。蘭德級潛艦支援艦（Emory S. Land-class）目前有兩艘在服役中，一次可為四艘核動力潛艦提供補給，是美國海軍維持遠洋潛艦戰力的重要裝備。法國海軍之前派遣核動力攻擊潛艦翡翠號（FS Emeraude）到印太地區巡弋時，也讓塞納河號補給支援艦（FS Seine）一併同行，在繞過半個地球的漫長航程中，維持翡翠號的續航能力。中國方面則有926型潛艦支援艦，目前有三艘服役中，除了做為補給艦，也擁有救難能力，配備小型的深海潛艇，可以在緊急情況下撤出被困的潛艦官兵。"
韓國軍民造船技術在亞洲吃得開:
"韓國大宇造船海事集團（Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co., Ltd，DSME）取經，因該公司曾先後取得德國授權與技術轉移，在韓國生產建造德國HDW設計的209（TR-1400）潛艦以及214型潛艦，並以此技術輸出替印尼海軍建造TR-1400潛艦，也再技轉協助印尼泗水的PTPAL船廠建造該型潛艦。加上韓國從技轉中學習其傳統柴電潛艦技術，並發展成有能力自行生產3000噸的安昌浩級（KSS-3）潛艦"
不只驅逐艦, 南韓對護衛艦的預定目標也跟日本潛艦目標有得比:
"根據南韓《韓聯社》報導，大邱級護衛艦為新一代護衛艦造艦計畫（FFX-II），被外界視為仁川級護衛艦的改良型號，計畫執行至今已有一號艦「大邱號」與二號艦「慶南號」服役，三至五號艦「首爾號」、「東海號」及「大田號」也都已下水。
六號艦「浦項號」今日（8日）在玉浦造船廠舉行下水儀式，聯合參謀本部議長元仁哲在下水儀式致詞中提到：「大海是人類賴以維生和發展的珍貴資源，欲維護海洋主權和國家利益，必須要有強大的海軍力量做後盾。」「浦項號」下水後，預計將在試航評估結束後，於2023年交付海軍，在完成戰力及實戰部署後正式服役"
2024/02/29停用。
Joined Nov 2020
