TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 72 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
"I can go to prison for 10 years because of 937 hryvnias" — law enforcement officers detained a man from Odesa who set fire to a military vehicle
As reported by the National Police of Ukraine, on the night of June 23 in Odesa, an intruder poured flammable liquid and set fire to a Mercedes-Benz parked in the yard of a house belonging to the military.
Paliy made it to order, for the fulfillment of which he was promised 80 thousand hryvnias. The extra person took a picture of the burning car and fled from the scene of the crime. Instead of the expected amount, he received UAH 937 and an instruction to wait for the next task.
The investigation established that the arson was committed by a 28-year-old citizen who voluntarily left the military unit where he was serving under the draft. In March, he was convicted for drug possession, and now he is involved in three criminal proceedings, initiated on the fact of illegal handling of weapons, purchase of drugs and theft of a telephone.
The perpetrator was detained. For what he committed, he faces up to 10 years in prison.
It will be recalled that earlier the police reported that the russian special services were recruiting Ukrainian teenagers to set fire to the cars of military personnel.
@ukrainejournal
Part 2/2
continues:
“The Ukrainian strike on the ferry crossings and subsequent attack on a nearby fuel depot again highlights the vulnerability of the strait to Ukrainian attacks, despite russia's significant investment in security and air defence,”
Britain's military intelligence agency said in a statement.
A senior US official who follows the war closely said Ukraine is using US-supplied long-range missiles "very effectively". The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Ukraine has enough ATACMS to support the Crimean campaign, adding that ammunition is being replenished on an ongoing basis.
Without giving exact numbers, the official said the United States was sending "dozens" of missiles, but not "hundreds."
Continued attacks on russian air defenses could force Moscow to move some military aircraft from Crimea “or risk losing more aircraft,” British intelligence said.
Ukraine is putting pressure on the Biden administration to lift restrictions on strikes deep into the russian Federation, in particular against air bases.
"Imagine what we can achieve when all restrictions are lifted,"
Zelensky said in a speech last week at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute in Washington.
Ben Hodges, the former commander of U.S. Army Europe who has long advocated for giving Ukraine long-range strike capabilities, said he has been impressed by Ukrainian targeting methodology since the advent of ATACMS.
"They're doing what we would do. Doing air defense to lay the groundwork for what comes next," he said.
F-16 fighter jets are expected to begin flying over Ukraine in limited numbers this summer, but their effectiveness would be limited if russia's air defenses remained intact.
“If you want your drones, F-16s or any other assets to hit large targets, you need to clear the way,” Hodges said.
russia has responded to increased attacks on Crimea by bringing in air defense systems from Kaliningrad and other parts of the country, according to Ukrainian and Western officials. The Kremlin also sent its S-500 Prometheus air defense system to the battlefield for the first time.
London-based defense intelligence firm Janes said its analysts had visually confirmed the deployment of at least the radar component of the S-500 in Crimea.
russia still has powerful air defenses - this became evident during a recent attack that was likely aimed at the Belbek air base north of Sevastopol. Debris from an intercepted Ukrainian missile fell onto a beach, killing five civilians, russian officials said.
russia immediately blamed the United States for the deaths, and the Kremlin summoned the American ambassador in Moscow. The russian Ministry of Defense Murder warned that strikes on Crimea increase “the risk of a direct clash between the Alliance and the russian Federation.”
But Ukraine shows no signs of slowing down its campaign in Crimea. Locals write in public pages that crowds of tourists have disappeared from the peninsula. While people still go to the beaches, one person said, some now wear badges with their name, home address and contact information for their immediate family.
(slightly edited)
@ukrainejournal
CrimeanWind published a long text of the New York Times.
Part 1/2
Ukraine has set its sights on Crimea and has already achieved impressive success - NYT
Ukraine has set its sights on Crimea, a critical base for the russians. Kyiv's recent missile strike was intended to reduce russia's capabilities on the peninsula by targeting airfields, air defenses and logistics centers.
As The New York Times writes, for a long time the sky over the Black Sea was full of traces of missiles. However, almost always these missiles were russian. Now they are flying from both sides. Ukraine, armed with US-made precision missiles, is capable of reaching every corner of Crimea for the first time - and missiles are increasingly flying in that direction.
This is a new strategic push. While it is unlikely to have much impact on the front line, the Ukrainian ATACMS campaign is intended to force the Kremlin to make difficult choices about where to deploy its most valuable air defenses to protect critical military infrastructure.
At a NATO summit in Washington last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the Crimea campaign would have limited effect as long as Moscow could move its bombers to air bases deep inside russia. He put pressure on the Biden administration to lift restrictions on strikes deep into the russian Federation.
Since ATACMS arrived this spring, the Ukrainian military says it has destroyed or damaged at least 15 russian long-range air defense systems in Crimea. Among them are powerful batteries S-300 and S-400.
Over the past three months, commercial satellite imagery has confirmed damage to russian radar installations, electronic warfare equipment, logistics routes and airfields.
"It's definitely fair to say that the Ukrainians have made some pretty impressive strides over the last few months."
said Justin Bronk , a senior fellow in aviation and technology at the Royal United Services Institute in London, who has studied the satellite imagery.
At the same time, he added that new high-tech weapons were generally becoming less effective as the russians adapted and Ukrainian stockpiles dwindled. Strikes in Crimea are also likely to have minimal impact on fighting at the front, especially in eastern Ukraine.
Attacks on the peninsula using Western weapons have angered russia, prompting it to warn the US of the "consequences" it would face if it provided modern weapons to Kyiv.
Partly in response to these warnings, several US bases in Europe have recently gone on high alert. Bases including the U.S. Army garrison in Stuttgart, Germany, where U.S. European Command is headquartered, were apparently concerned about potential Russian sabotage, U.S. officials said.
Crimea has deep political, symbolic and military value for Vladimir Putin, who has called it russia's "holy land" and placed it at the center of his fake narrative that Ukraine is part of russia.
Since the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, Moscow has invested heavily in expanding its military presence on the peninsula, with military installations seen in both coastal areas and mountain enclaves. The Kremlin has also poured resources into making Crimea a tourist destination.
Crimea helps support the russian occupation of southern Ukraine and is equipped with ground-based missile systems that are used to target Ukrainian cities. Penetrating russia's powerful air defenses remains a challenge, but Ukraine has been able to carry out attacks this summer designed to overwhelm and confuse air defenses.
During the massive attack on May 29, Ukraine used domestically produced air and sea drones, Western cruise missiles and ATACMS to overcome russian air defenses, Ukrainian military and intelligence services said.
The attack damaged two ferries that played a crucial role in the military supply chain between russia and Crimea.
to continue 👇
Background information:
🪢 Yesterday, military officer Kateryna "Ptashka" Polishchuk appealed to the president to conduct an official investigation into the commander of the 59th brigade, Bohdan Shevchuk.
She stated that Shevchuk gave criminal orders, neglected the lives of soldiers, due to which some of them died, and also eliminated all dissenting commanders. Polishchuk added that Shevchuk was appointed commander due to family ties.
❗️ The General Staff of the Armed Forces reported that Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi will check the situation - up to the 59th brigade named after Yakov Handziuk will send a working group led by the head of the Military Law and Order Service.
Photo: Kateryna Polishchuk / Instagram
@ukrainejournal
STORM SHADOW - FLIP FLOP OR SOMETHING ELSE?
As I catch up from two weeks away, the one thing the new British Labour government announced that seemed both suitably hawkish and a ‘good thing’ - was the announcement that Storm Shadow missiles can be used inside Russia proper.
It made headlines and must have been a welcome surprise for Ukraine.
As usual the Russians freaked out about it and replayed their badly FX’d
destruction of Britain by nukes video.
Then relatively quietly the permission so publicly granted, was quietly withdrawn.
There was no explanation. It seems the new Labour government was unaware until later, that the French Government has to agree as well to the use of the missile in such circumstances and it hasn’t yet done so. (The same would happen if the French wanted to give permission, they would have to ask the UK). The permission is in the purview of the French MoD, and post election, only a caretaker government is in place and is unwilling to make those decisions. It could be weeks before there’s a new government.
Some suspected that the White House may have frowned upon the idea - and it might but it’s unlikely to have forced the issue at this stage.
If the UK government wanted to give permission then it’s unlikely to have backed off so quickly without a legal reason.
There is of course the other issue. And this will have quietly raised alarms in the MoD’s of Storm Shadow /SCALP-EG users. The Russians captured a near intact missile in the last three weeks.
Either it failed or was knocked off course by a near miss. Either way the video clearly showed the inspection of the guidance system, counter measures and warhead systems.
These things get found out all the time, there’s a litany of weapons systems that have become useless in this war.
The much awaited GLSDB failed miserably and just wasn’t up to facing Russian EW.
The much vaunted Excalibur guided 155mm shell has become so hopelessly bad after months of success, that the Ukrainians have stopped using it because of Russian EW - it just won’t hit a target anymore.
Nobody wants to see Storm Shadow go the same way.
It’s entirely probable that new missiles and older ones will need new
counter measures if they are even to be used again. There’s no point in wasting them just to see them fail.
JDAM’s munitions are an example of what had been stopped from being effective and now has been returned to service with considerable effect. MLRS/HIMARS missiles have been updated and improved.
War has the ability to prove reality is not what we always wanted.
The west relies on technical superiority and technology to outperform Russian military capabilities.
What was good yesterday might not be so good today or tomorrow. It’s what you do about it and the speed you do it that makes the difference. It’s not a lesson easily learned.
Enduring war requires enduring technological change and outpacing your enemies. China is watching, Russia is learning to counteract our systems - we have to keep the edge.
Nothing we built was designed for a war this long. It’s just another aspect of fighting it that has come home to roost. Learn from it.
Slava Ukraine!🇺🇦 From ‘The Analyst’ X: MilStratOnX
I see The Analyst is now using the name I gave him. Hilarious!!! 😄
Good that instead of scowling at people sharing his posts, he's now embracing his popularity. Dianna
@ukrainejournal
I bet they don't like all the attention.
We have a clipper coming and I am back outside until it arrives. It's only 82⁰ right now.
Going inside until evening. This is a heat alert day and it's 1 PM
From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX
SUSTAINABLE OPERATIONS? NOT EVEN CLOSE FOR RUSSIA
According to British intelligence and open source information, Russia has over the course of the past 12 months , produced just under 750 BMP-3 (IFV), while having lost around 780 of them over the same time frame.
However the BMP-1, 2 and MT-LB are now largely exhausted and completely irreplaceable. So allowing for the rough 1 loss to 1 new vehicle - which is quite an impressive rate, is still nowhere near enough to make up for stockpiled and now exhausted supplies of every other type.
Clearly they simply don’t have the production to meet the requirements the army has - in fact they cannot possibly reach the numbers required to make any inroads into the losses overall.
Then you have the artillery problem. Yesterday alone Ukraine took out 62 Russian artillery pieces. Many of these were D-30 sixty + year old systems of towed artillery that have either been dragged out of stores and refurbished or supplied by N.Korea. These are lower calibre, shorter ranged towed and manned pieces that are far from cutting edge. It’s a 122mm piece that first entered service in 1960 and was designed around 1957.
This is now Russia’s main artillery because the Ukrainians have reduced the modern SPG and heavy artillery to such low levels by concentrating so heavily on Russian artillery for over a year now.
In terms of air defence systems Russia has now been observed to have removed all of the equipment in 11 of 17 of its recognised strategic air defence sites around the country, to get them to the front. Replacing these systems is virtually impossible.
And if that wasn’t sufficient, the British intelligence estimate based on satellites and official and open source information- shows Russia lost 70,000 men just in May-June.
That’s simply staggering in modern war and approaching WW1 levels of death rates.
Again, Russia is not sustaining this war with what it needs to win it, its domestic production simply isn’t able to meet demand so every day the Ukrainians attrition war against Russia slowly you would think, pays off.
And it does in that Russia kills far fewer Ukrainians than it loses of its own badly resourced and trained soldiers.
Yet that cannot be said of land regained.
Like it or not Ukraine is still, over all, losing more ground than it retakes and the Russians still keep advancing bit by tiny bit in various spots along the front.
This has to be stopped. And it needs to be reversed. Because until it is, peace can never be achieved on terms Ukraine can live with. Somewhere along the line Russia’s unsustainable war must cost it dearly - and right now that’s just not happening.
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX
SUSTAINABLE OPERATIONS? NOT EVEN CLOSE FOR RUSSIA
According to British intelligence and open source information, Russia has over the course of the past 12 months , produced just under 750 BMP-3 (IFV), while having lost around 780 of them over the same time frame.
However the BMP-1, 2 and MT-LB are now largely exhausted and completely irreplaceable. So allowing for the rough 1 loss to 1 new vehicle - which is quite an impressive rate, is still nowhere near enough to make up for stockpiled and now exhausted supplies of every other type.
Clearly they simply don’t have the production to meet the requirements the army has - in fact they cannot possibly reach the numbers required to make any inroads into the losses overall.
Then you have the artillery problem. Yesterday alone Ukraine took out 62 Russian artillery pieces. Many of these were D-30 sixty + year old systems of towed artillery that have either been dragged out of stores and refurbished or supplied by N.Korea. These are lower calibre, shorter ranged towed and manned pieces that are far from cutting edge. It’s a 122mm piece that first entered service in 1960 and was designed around 1957.
This is now Russia’s main artillery because the Ukrainians have reduced the modern SPG and heavy artillery to such low levels by concentrating so heavily on Russian artillery for over a year now.
In terms of air defence systems Russia has now been observed to have removed all of the equipment in 11 of 17 of its recognised strategic air defence sites around the country, to get them to the front. Replacing these systems is virtually impossible.
And if that wasn’t sufficient, the British intelligence estimate based on satellites and official and open source information- shows Russia lost 70,000 men just in May-June.
That’s simply staggering in modern war and approaching WW1 levels of death rates.
Again, Russia is not sustaining this war with what it needs to win it, its domestic production simply isn’t able to meet demand so every day the Ukrainians attrition war against Russia slowly you would think, pays off.
And it does in that Russia kills far fewer Ukrainians than it loses of its own badly resourced and trained soldiers.
Yet that cannot be said of land regained.
Like it or not Ukraine is still, over all, losing more ground than it retakes and the Russians still keep advancing bit by tiny bit in various spots along the front.
This has to be stopped. And it needs to be reversed. Because until it is, peace can never be achieved on terms Ukraine can live with. Somewhere along the line Russia’s unsustainable war must cost it dearly - and right now that’s just not happening.
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
27 ships. Good job Ukraine
Ukraine-Russia war – live: Last Russian naval patrol ship leaves Crimea in big win for Kyiv’s drone campaign
Kyiv has destroyed or damaged 27 Russian naval vessels since the invasion began
Ukraine-Russia war – live: Last Russian naval patrol ship leaves Crimea in big win for Kyiv’s drone campaign
Kyiv has destroyed or damaged 27 Russian naval vessels since the invasion began.
Ukraine says Vladimir Putin has withdrawn the last Russian naval patrol ship from its base in Crimea- a victory for Kyiv’s sustained campaign against Moscow’s naval infrastructure on the occupied peninsula.
Ukraine has deployed aerial and naval drones as well as missiles in a concerted effort to push Russian naval forces out of Sevastopol, and much of Putin’s Black Sea Fleet has now been pulled back to the Russian port city of Novorossiysk.
“The last patrol ship of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation is bolting from our Crimea just now. Remember this day,” Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said.
Kyiv has destroyed or damaged 27 Russian naval vessels over the course of the war, Ukraine’s navy chief Vice-Admiral Oleksiy Neizhpapa said.
In May, Ukraine said it had destroyed the last Russian warship armed with cruise missiles that was stationed in Crimea.
The development comes as Volodymyr Zelensky said he was “not afraid” to work with Donald Trump if the Republican candidate comes to power and wins the US presidential elections.
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 72 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
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