TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org

✈️ 2 F-16s are likely to be used as decoys

If you look closely at the photos of the planes that were on the ground during the awarding of Air Force soldiers by Zelensky, you can see that they are F-16 ADF planes. This version can be distinguished by the characteristic IFF "own-foreign" antennas, namely the protruding part. In photo 3: the top picture is an F-16 ADF near Zelenskyi, the bottom picture is an F-16AM in which the pilot is sitting.

▫️F-16 fighters were modernized by the ADF at the end of the Cold War as air defense aircraft, but after the collapse of the USSR they were mothballed, and some were sold to Jordan and Thailand.

It is likely that these 2 planes were recently loaded into a Ukrainian An-124-100M in the USA. It is unlikely that the planes were restored after so many years of storage under the open sky, and judging by the fact that there are no inscriptions on them near the cockpit, and they were also covered with camouflage nets - we are likely talking about defunct planes that will be used as decoys for missiles.

https://open.substack.com/pub/robertreich/p/another-black-monday?r=70k1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

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The more you put against a weaker force - the bigger the number you have, the inevitable result will be that you will overcome the defence. They had done this but suddenly changed tack.
They diverted forces south to attack Krasnohirivka - that failed. New York was bogged down, and by taking these forces out of the central front and loosing them in the mire of battle where they could not succeed - the basic numbers game - they weakened their principle battle force expanding the salient. In essence they stopped their own advance, by becoming distracted by objectives they failed to provide with enough force to take. They ‘self-attrited’ and wasted irreplaceable resources against increasingly strong Ukrainian defences fortified by new aid.
In simple terms I think their commander got cold feet. Rather than double down on the main offensive - because he came close to a significant breakthrough, he got distracted by easier targets and a widening of his responsibility area. For whatever reason the Russian command expanded the Central Group of Forces operational area, but without giving them enough to sustain the main operation. Dilution results inevitably, in weakening.
This has now created a wider problem for the Central Group command. They managed a breakthrough in the north of the Avdivka front along a key rail line almost by accident and advanced suddenly, threatening to overwhelm the Ukrainians on the east bank of the Vovcha River and a sizeable reservoir by coming in behind them and forcing their retreat westward. This would allow the centre of the Central Group salient to advance.
However the Ukrainians have had time to ready defences and are better supplied and organised. A giant pincer attack from the north of the salient and the south of it seems almost beyond what the Russians can manage with sufficient force to succeed against defenders far better equipped and prepared than they were. The Russians would have to coordinate their attack in a way they have shown little capability to do - but as a result of stultifying command practices and poor comms equipment.
It seems unlikely the Ukrainians will sit and let themselves get surrounded, they’re far to active to do so.
In short the Russians may make small gains, but the power and pace of their offensives from Pokorovsk (which was largely opportunistic and not well organised), to the south at Krasnohorivka, finally seems to be slowing down dramatically and weakening.
It isn’t over but it’s almost done.
Ukraine has made some damaging mistakes, but not at any point have their soldiers turned away from battle or failed to defend out of lack of courage or fear.
It’s been a hard summer and a hot one. Conditions have been harsh, the heat brutal. Land has been lost but lives have been saved. The road ahead is long.
Victory is coming - I remain sure of it.

‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!

From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic)

AVDIVKA FRONT: BREAKING MOMENTUM
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The Avdivka front developed originally from the collapse of the long held fortified area of the town of Avdivka. Unable to imagine that Avdivka would fall, most defences were built there to defend it over the course of ten years. Ukraine simply didn’t think it could be taken.
Originally of course that was entirely reasonable as a thought, but it was a devastating assumption - and the one thing I cannot abide is assumption. Only fools assume everything stays the same.
The war went from near static to Russian full on invasion and eventually Russia overcame Avdivka through brute force on their side and the peak of weapons shortages due to the block on American aid that could have prevented it, possibly on the Ukrainian. Over time and looking back on how Avdivka was taken, I’m less certain that aid would have stopped its loss.
The collapse of the Avdivka salient led progressively to the situation on what has become known as the Avdivka or Central Front.
The semi-perpetual Ukrainian retreat has been a combination of saving lives at the cost of lost land, and a lack of prepared defences in a very rural area in which to anchor any resistance.
The scale of Russian manpower utilisation has been extraordinarily high. Their losses have been dramatic and intense, a willingness to lose whatever it took to gain as much land as possible - death of thousands means nothing to them.
Western aid undoubtedly contributed to slowing things down. Lack of Ukrainian manpower after two years of bumbling about and ideological hand wringing over mobilisation, is the real cause. Ukraine didn’t and doesn’t have enough men in the field and it has itself to blame. If there is one policy issue that Zelensky and his government screwed up on big time, failure to properly mobilise - and still not doing it to their fullest ability - has been the most egregious mistake.
Ukraine has had no choice but to ‘bend like a reed’ as Tsun Zhu would describe it.
Eventually as you bend, the enemy front expands and his manpower advantage thins out and becomes weak in places, strong in others, eventually his reserve are drawn in, attrited down and the frontal attack starts to fade out.
And that’s exactly what seems to be happening now.
The Russians had transformed the Avdivka command to what they term a Central Manoeuvre Force, giving it unprecedented resources and decision making power to exploit the capture of the city and the weak Ukrainian defences beyond.
They knew they had an opportunity here to make major inroads into Ukraine and they set about doing it.
The Ukrainian forces themselves gave the Russians what they sought - the failed rotation at Ochertyne was a disaster. This literally led to an undefended section of front line.
As an analyst you have to give the credit to the Russians for seeing it, analysing it was not a trap and exploiting it at lightning pace. Let it be a lesson to everyone that by this stage in the war the Russians have become far more adept at seeing and understanding their opportunities, far more rapidly and effectively than we would like to give them credit for. It’s how they go about that exploitation that becomes so destructive to their own forces.
Yet we have to put this all into perspective. Over three months and at the cost of tens of thousands of Russian lives - the estimate is around 80,000- they advanced just 12km (7.8 miles).
As the advance became slower, they diverted the 27th Motorised brigade from the central part of the front to the north and used it to make a dash for the village of New York, which again took Ukraine by surprise and was again, caused by operational failure during a rotation. Rather than cut off this spike attack from the base they chose to contain the spearhead, which they have barely managed to do - again short on manpower not willpower.
At this point the Russians seemed to have lost the key strategic concept that they had made work so well.
It’s very simple because in the end it’s all about simple maths.
CONTINUES…

❗️Statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine regarding the decision of the Republic of Mali to sever diplomatic ties with Ukraine

The decision of the Transitional Government of the Republic of Mali to sever diplomatic relations with Ukraine is short-sighted and hasty, given that Ukraine, as a victim of unprovoked full-scale armed aggression by the Russian Federation, is making every effort, with the support of the world community, to restore justice and respect for international law, which is designed to protect all countries of the world, in particular African countries , from encroachments on their sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity.

▪️Ukraine unconditionally adheres to the norms of international law, the inviolability of sovereignty and territorial integrity of other countries and resolutely rejects the accusations of the Transitional Government of Mali of alleged "Ukraine's support of international terrorism".

▪️We remind you that in the 20th century Ukraine, being one of the founders of the United Nations, actively supported the right of African peoples to independence and decolonization, including the Republic of Mali.

▪️On the contrary, the Russian Federation, continuing its unprovoked full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine, destroys the architecture of international security, violates the Goals and Principles of the UN Charter, which in particular guarantee the right of African countries to a free future.
Ukraine is known in Africa as an important contributor to ensuring regional security. Its contingent of "blue helmets" made a significant contribution to the implementation of a number of peacekeeping operations under the auspices of the UN, in particular from 2019 to 2022 — as part of the UN Missions in Mali.

▪️It is unfortunate that the Transitional Government of the Republic of Mali decided to break diplomatic relations with Ukraine without conducting a thorough study of the facts and circumstances of the incident in the north of Mali, as well as without providing any evidence of Ukraine's involvement in the said event.
At the same time, it is ignored that military structures under the control of the Kremlin, in particular "Wagner", use terrorist methods and are directly involved in numerous war crimes, killings of civilians and cruel treatment of prisoners of war both in Ukraine and in African countries.

▪️Ukraine reserves the right to take all necessary measures of political and diplomatic response in response to the unfriendly actions of the Transitional Government of the Republic of Mali.

"I set fire and left with peace of mind" - sailor "Goga" burned down a Russian ship and joined the side of Ukraine.

"Goga" is a former serviceman of the Russian Baltic Fleet. Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, he opposed the war, for which he was deprived of access to weapons, rearranged to put on watch and prepared to be sent to the "special military operation".

The sailor managed to escape from the Russian Federation with the help of the GUR and the Freedom of Russia Legion, but before that, he burned down the ship he was serving on.

"I called the commander of the combat unit, and they were at sea right then. I said, "You came from the sea, you are tired. Have a rest, and I'll be on duty." And I stayed alone on the ship for 24 hours. That's it. I set fire and left the ship," "Goga" said.

🇪🇺🇭🇺 A group of 67 MEPs wants to throw Hungary out of the Schengen common border agreement in Europe because of Budapest's decision to ease the visa regime for citizens of Russia and Belarus.

"If the Hungarian government refuses to change its policy, the EU representatives must introduce new control measures at the Hungarian borders," the deputies say in a letter to European Commission President von der Leyen.

Earlier, the leader of the European Parliament's largest party, the European People's Party, Manfred Weber, said that Hungary's recent decision to ease visa restrictions for Russian tourists is an open door for spies, and the EU should take urgent countermeasures.

After all, the issuance of European visas will allow Russians and Belarusians who have not passed the check to travel freely throughout most of the EU and causes "serious concerns about national security," he says.

🟠 Maduro: "It's a plot by Zionists, Fascists and Satanists to overthrow me."

On the video: The Zionists, Fascists and Satanists.

🟠 UN investigation:
Nine UNRWA employees were involved in the October 7 massacre, they will be fired.

... Fired ! ... Is it a joke ?! ... So they can go home ? ...

🔴 Joint IDF and ISA announcement:

During the strike on Hamas command and control centers in Gaza City; the IDF and ISA eliminated the terrorist Jaber Aziz, Commander of Hamas' Al-Furqan Battalion

Yesterday (Sunday), based on IDF and ISA intelligence, the IDF struck Hamas terrorists who operated in a Hamas command and control center that was embedded within the "Hassan Salame" and "Nasser" schools in Gaza City.
According to IDF and ISA intelligence, during the strike in the area of the "Hassan Salame" school, the terrorist Jaber Aziz, Commander of Hamas' Al-Furqan Battalion was eliminated along with additional terrorists.

Aziz has been the Commander of Hamas' Al-Furqan Battalion since 2020. He was previously the Deputy Commander of the Al-Furqan Battalion, Deputy Commander of the Zaytun Battalion, and the Commander of the Zaytun Battalion.

Aziz took a significant part in the planning of the October 7th massacre and led the preparations and training of the Al-Furqan Battalion. He also participated in the infiltration into communities near the Gaza Strip on October 7th.

Throughout the war, he was responsible for directing and promoting numerous terror attacks against the IDF and the State of Israel. Aziz was a key operative in the war management of Hamas' Gaza Brigade. His elimination significantly degrades the capabilities of the Hamas terrorist organization.

A gem

⚫ Saudi Arabia has reportedly told Iranian Officials, that it will not allow Iran to use Saudi Airspace to launch an Attack on Israel, and that any Missiles, Drones, or Aircraft that enter its Airspace will be seen as a Violation of Saudi Sovereignty, stating that, “We are Defending ourselves, not Israel.”

🟠 The US has deployed nuclear bombers to the Middle East in preparation for the upcoming war with Iran.

The US wants to deter Iran from using nuclear weapons, which it recently announced it has.

Unconfirmed reports indicate six to seven active warheads already deployed on missiles!

Pretty amusing

https://open.substack.com/pub/jefftiedrich/p/judge-chutkan-gets-back-to-work?r=70k1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

⚫ “Arabs should sexually harass Israeli women by any and all means necessary.”

Yes, this is a real quote from a woman being interviewed in the Arab press. Oh, not just any women. A lawyer. An Egyptian lawyer.

Just when you thought they couldn’t get any more grotesque.

🟠 The US has deployed nuclear bombers to the Middle East in preparation for the upcoming war with Iran.

The US wants to deter Iran from using nuclear weapons, which it recently announced it has.

Unconfirmed reports indicate six to seven active warheads already deployed on missiles!

It should be noted that Israel can answer a nuclear attack with over 100 nukes

The war is about to start. Iran has said they will be targeting civilians which is a war crime. Israel has warned that they will target nuclear facilities if Iran targets civilians

https://t.me/Israel_Middle_East_Insight/30532

Kiev Independent
https://mailchi.mp/kyivindependent/welcome-to-the-ukraine-daily-newsletter-17587502?e=7763f0b74a

I don't know about the rest of you, but the ups and downs of the stock market are not going to affect my vote. I have zero dollars in the stock market.