TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian fascist invaders.
I am a 73 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2993. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
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Ukrainian parliamentarians and advisers to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have over the last several months pressed Biden officials and lawmakers on Capitol Hill to send the JASSM. That pressure grew when a cohort of Ukrainian parliamentarians visited Washington in July. Their request made its way to national security adviser Jake Sullivan, one of the people said.
Poland, Australia and Finland have the weapon, while Japan and the Netherlands signed agreements to buy the missiles in July with delivery expected in the coming years. Germany, Greece, Romania and Denmark are also in discussions to buy the missile.
Missile maker Lockheed Martin has delivered over 4,100 JASSMs in various configurations to the U.S. Air Force and allies over the years, with a new production line in Alabama churning out around 45 missiles a month to reach a stockpile goal of 7,200 missiles, according to Pentagon data.
The JASSMs would give Ukraine a significant boost in range, as the F-16s donated this summer by European countries are not expected to fly close to Russian lines for fear of being shot down.
The U.S. and allies have already committed to sending Ukraine a variety of air-to-air and air-to-ground munitions for its F-16s, but the JASSM deliveries would give Kyiv the most powerful and longest-range weapon in its air force’s arsenal.
A cadre of pro-Ukraine U.S. lawmakers has been pressing the administration to loosen restrictions on Kyiv’s ability to fire U.S.-supplied weapons into Russian territory. They argue that the U.S. should keep the momentum going after Ukrainian forces crossed the border into Russia on Aug. 6.
“Certainly we are pushing for additional weapon systems to be supplied to the Ukrainians because the Russian aerial reign of terror has reached a different order of magnitude — maybe several orders of magnitude greater than it was, with different kinds of missiles, glide bombs and drones,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), who returned Tuesday night from Kyiv. Blumenthal declined to comment on any specific weapons under discussion.
The Pentagon has been receptive to the suggestion from Congress to supply the missiles because Russia has been successful at jamming some other American-made, precision-guided weapons.
Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. C.Q. Brown didn’t rule out sending the missiles when Ukraine Caucus Co-Chair Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) asked at a hearing in April whether the Defense Department was considering the action. How the F-16s would be armed would be part of DOD’s talks with Ukraine Defense Contact Group allies, Brown said.
“As we bring on the F-16s, it’s not only the airplanes, but the training of the pilots, the training of the maintainers — but also making sure we have the weapons to go with it,” Brown said. “That is the dialogue we’re having not only to get the airplanes but to get them to full capability.”
Biden ‘open’ to sending long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine [no decision made] - Politico
"The Pentagon is already working through fixes to allow Ukraine to launch the weapons from its fighter planes."
The Biden administration is “open” to sending long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine, a move that would give Kyiv’s F-16s greater combat punch as it seeks to gain further momentum in its fight against Russia.
The White House’s willingness to give Ukraine the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile comes as Kyiv’s surprisingly successful ground assault deep inside Russia heads into its second week, embarrassing Vladimir Putin and forcing him to redirect troops from the battlefield in Ukraine.
No final decision has been made on sending the missile, but the administration is working through the complicated details now, according to one Biden administration official. Those issues include reviews of the transfer of sensitive technologies, and ensuring Ukraine’s jets can launch the 2,400-pound missile that carries a 1,000-pound warhead.
The official, along with two other people familiar with internal deliberations, was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive issues.
The Pentagon declined to comment on whether it had approved the transfer of the missile.
“We consider a range of options to meet Ukraine’s security assistance requirements, however we have no information to provide,” said Pentagon spokesperson Jeff Jurgensen.
The debate surrounding the JASSM and the Biden administration’s willingness to explore its transfer makes the missile the latest in a long line of sophisticated weaponry once considered off-limits for transfer to Ukraine.
Some members of Congress and political opponents have accused the Biden administration of moving too slowly to give Kyiv the equipment it needs to win the war. Yet for a conflict that is just 30 months old, the approvals of F-16s, Abrams tanks, cruise missiles, Patriot air defenses and modern infantry carriers have transformed what was a Soviet-era military into one of Europe’s battlefield powerhouses.
The potential move comes in the waning months of President Joe Biden’s tenure, after which the level of U.S. support for Ukraine becomes less clear if former President Donald Trump retakes the White House.
The air-launched missiles would give the Ukrainian air force a capability only a handful of other nations have: launching a cruise missile over 200 miles from a U.S.-made fourth-generation fighter plane.
While talks continue inside the White House and Pentagon, the administration official warned that there is plenty of work to do before any missiles actually make their way to Ukraine, including making sure that Kyiv’s existing Soviet-era planes and its freshly delivered F-16s can launch the missile at targets over 230 miles away.
The Pentagon is already working with Ukraine on those technical issues, two of the people said.
The JASSM, developed by Lockheed Martin and first fielded in the early 2000s, has been used by the U.S. sparingly in combat and has been shared with only a handful of close allies.
Ukraine already possesses both air and ground-launched missiles provided by the U.S., U.K. and France that can reach almost 200 miles from their launch point, but restrictions on the missiles’ use inside Russia are for now staying in place.
The limitations, which stipulate that Ukraine can’t use U.S.-supplied weapons inside Russia unless it’s just over the border and for self-defense only, have frustrated Kyiv, which has repeatedly asked for a freer hand to strike Russian forces inside their country. It may be too late anyway for Ukraine to use its existing missiles to strike Russian aircraft at their bases, as the Russian military moved their fighters beyond the range of those missiles in May, according to the administration official.
As Ukraine pleads for the U.S. to relax its rules, Moscow has used its fighter planes flying safely inside Russia to launch glide bombs at Ukrainian cities, killing civilians.
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If cheerios are so important to you, try walking into a grocery store.
⚔️ Operational information as of 08.00 on 15.08.2024 regarding the Russian invasion
❗️ The main summary:
🔵 In total, 165 combat clashes were recorded during the past day.
🔵 According to detailed information, yesterday the enemy launched five missile strikes against the positions of Ukrainian units and populated areas using five missiles, as well as 58 airstrikes, in particular, dropping 71 anti-aircraft missiles. In addition, he carried out 4365 attacks, of which 135 were from rocket salvo systems.
🔥 Yesterday, the aviation and missile forces and artillery of the Defense Forces carried out nine strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel and anti-aircraft defense of the enemy and the command post, and also hit four artillery systems, an air defense vehicle, an ammunition warehouse and another important object of the occupiers.
🔵 In the Kharkiv direction, four combat clashes took place in the areas of the settlements of Vovchansk and Sotnytskyi Kozachok.
🔵 Nine enemy attacks took place in the Kupyan direction during the day. The defense forces repelled enemy assaults near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, and Berestovo.
🔵 The enemy attacked 15 times in the Lyman direction. He tried to advance near Nevsky, Terni and Makiivka.
🔵 In the Siverskyi direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 25 assaults by Russian invaders near Beilohorivka, Verkhnyokamyansky, Pereizny, Spirny, and Vyimka.
🔵 In the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers attacked five times near Chasovoy Yar and Andriivka.
🔵 In the Toretsk direction, the enemy, with the support of aviation, carried out 24 attacks in the areas of Severnoy, Nelipivka, Zalizny, New York and Toretsk.
🔵 In the Pokrovsky direction, our defenders stopped 58 assault and offensive actions of the aggressor towards the settlements of Vozdvizhenka, Elizavetivka, Grodivka, Orlivka, Mykolaivka, Zhelanne, Skuchne, Yasnobrodivka and Ptyche. The greatest concentration of enemy attacks was near Vozdvizhenka and Grodivka, the enemy actively used assault and bombing aircraft.
🔵 In the Kurakhiv direction, the Defense Forces repelled eight attacks near Krasnohorivka, Kostyantynivka, and Georgiivka.
🔵 In the Vremivsk direction, according to detailed information, the enemy carried out seven assaults on our positions near Vodyanyi and Vugledar.
🔵 In the Orihiv direction, the occupiers tried to knock out units of the Defense Forces from their positions in the areas of Mala Tokmachka and Novodanilivka - in total, they conducted three assaults.
🔵 In the Dnieper direction, Russian invaders attacked our positions seven times. They were repulsed and suffered losses.
Join the Defense Forces!
Together we will win!🇺🇦
StratCom of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in social networks
RUSSIA EXTENDS GASOLINE & DIESEL EXPORT BAN
The Russian government has extended the ban on petroleum and diesel exports, along with aviation fuel.
The later is said to be in chronically short supply. The effect of the shortage is said to be causing shortages at air bases and has curtailed Russian air operations.
With harvest time due, diesel is in very high demand and imports are now essential to maintain supply.
It’s ridiculous that Russia has 44 massive refineries and a shortage of basic fuels. Clearly the Ukrainian drone strikes have had a career impact than anyone in Russia wants to admit. The general public are kept in the dark about the state of refineries - all they see is rising prices and a desperate effort to hide the realities.
The Analyst: MilStratOnX
From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX
BAD DAY FOR RUSSIA
In military history it’s not uncommon for a surprise attack to have an agonising set of rolling failures follow. Shock to the defender who is unprepared leads to a scramble to defend against what may be overwhelming momentum, nothing is where it needs to be, commanders can’t get a grip. Morale plummets and soldiers retreat under pressure when they know they cannot win. Things seem pointless. No matter what command does, it just won’t come together.
The other day I mentioned the need for the Russians to redeploy well away from the operating front. If they are to get any grip they have to concede the one thing have that’s truly plentiful - territory. Only when they are ready should they then engage - that’s how they realised they could stop the Nazi invasion in 1941. Sacrifice whatever they had to and defend what mattered. Then turn the tide at a place of your own choosing. Moscow in 1941, stymied the Nazis. From that point the war was lost even though the invasion carried on as far as Stalingrad, which turned the tide completely. The Nazis last stand that could have possibly led to talks if they had won - and Stalin was willing - happened to be of all places, Kursk. In mid 1943 the biggest tank battle in history resulted in a cascading defeat Germany never recovered from.
I mention this because you would think with this much history behind them and so much devastation that occurred, the Russians would look back and think ‘we know how to do this, we’ve been here before’.
Yet no. They are making catastrophic mistakes - the same mistakes they made in 1941 and in 1914. In 1914 they had open channel radios. No codes. The Germans just listened in, just as the Ukrainians are 110 years later, because they still use open channel radios. It’s mind boggling in its incompetence.
Yesterday a Russian convoy of vehicles and soldiers was headed north away from the advancing Ukrainian forces in a headlong retreat, using a major road. A Russian Mi-28 attack helicopter swooped in and proudly videoed itself decimating the convoy, destroying its vehicles and killing half its conscript troops.
And they posted it on their propaganda channels at the Russian MOD because they didn’t even know what they’d done - declaring the destruction to be Ukrainian forces they’d stopped.
Added to this is the innovation and imagination of Ukrainian forces. Using a simple deception tactic, they used the telephone to call Russian authorities in their path and, posing as Moscow or Kursk officials, ordered widespread evacuations.
This lead to panic and Russians fleeing in their cars - ordered to use both lanes of major roads to escape. This caused traffic mayhem and blocked up the roads the Russians needed to get close to the ‘front’ if it can be called that in such a mobile situation. Added to that the Ukrainians send lightly armoured units well ahead, this sows panic and they engage any forward troops they encounter often before they can deploy. A fire fight ensues and the Ukrainians call in supporting forces of drones and if possible ground and air strikes. The stunned Russians most often turn and run or surrender, having no command and no guidance as to what to do.
The stupidity of the regime goes even further, with TV broadcasting live troop movements on camera in easily identifiable places. The regime wants people to see it’s doing something while completely undermining any sense of operational security. HIMARS strikes are known to have completely destroyed at least one convoy. Images of dead and injured soldiers along with burned out vehicles were then live posted on telegram by escaping civilians.
Yet again the Russians were only too ready to send in Chechen Akhmat units to act as barrier troops to stop Russians retreating. As soon as the Chechens found the Ukrainians they fled and Ukraine captured several.
The Russians are also getting desperate - they’re using Iskander SRBM’s to hit moving targets and missing by a mile, and wondering why. CONTINUES…
CONTINUES..
The northern Ukrainian flank seems to be aiming for a major river line that would act as a stabilising defensive position, behind which they can dig in. Some of the charities that have funded diggers for Ukraine have seen them deployed in the region, suggesting defences are being readied in captured areas.
It’s not all gone the Ukrainians way. At least one advance group was badly mauled by Lancett-3 drones although most of the troops survived they lost their vehicles.
The Ukrainians managed to conduct a pincer movement to capture the remains of the key town of Sudzha - they had taken up to the river but crossed it north and south and captured the Russians by encircling them.
We know too, that Russian forces have seen the Ukrainians 30km deep into the south and west of the front. There remains no word on the Kolomikivka situation which is of concern in the wider scheme of things - it may only have been a distraction attack which is starting to make the Kursk offensive look like a negotiating tactic and nuisance.
I pray this is not the case. The Kursk salient they are occupying cannot expand indefinitely- Ukraine would never be able to defend it. The speed of advance and the constant pressure on the Russians is its greatest strength. As long as that can be sustained- because as soon as it stops the game changes dramatically. So this has to be turned south at some point, it has to start to threaten the northern front and the Kharkiv incursion at the very least and have a deeper purpose, surely? It can’t be as shallow as a simple land grab for negotiations?
Putin is a man mired in the ‘sunk return fallacy’. He has doubled and tripled down on this war he started even though the cost in men, material and treasure is driving his country to its doom.
As the fallacy implies, the effort is still made, the resources still ploughed in, even though it would be wiser, cheaper and easier to stop the whole thing and admit it’s a failure. He cannot, the expense to obtain victory is sinking his ship of state and there’s no getting the investment back. Putting in more will change nothing but he will persist anyway. If Ukraine can’t see that just taking Russian land won’t make him negotiate they too have their own problem.
This offensive has to be more than it looks right now. If it’s not, then I fear for its ultimate survival and value. I still worry this is a lot of short term joy for long term pain.
It could as I said at the start of it, be a massive folly, I prey it is not. We must not get carried away with the delight of seeing Russia humiliated and confused as flags are torn from admin buildings. This must serve a wider purpose and contribute significantly to victory.
Right now it goes well. Long may it continue.
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!
RUSSIAN AIR BASES HAMMERED BY DRONES
Savaslieka air base was pretty much destroyed by a drone attack. These slow moving and quite large drones manage to fly huge distances and clearly have some kind of terminal image recognition system to hit their specified targets so accurately. They are often a seen manoeuvring into position. Mig-31’s are believed to have been destroyed and several damaged. One airfield is believed to have housed Mig-31K variants that carry Kinzhals to altitude. The destruction can be seen in this pre-post video.
The Russians claim they shoot down almost everything but they clearly don’t come close to doing so. The’ve even admitted the Pantsir systems are inadequate and have developed a smaller faster missile to attack drones. However it’s still limited by the system itself which can only sweep upwards 90 degrees and around 45 degrees of centre, let alone its reload time.
They have nothing like the Gepard which has proven to have a new lease of life in the anti drone role, and they certainly have nothing like the awesome Skynex system with its time detonator shells designed to fell multiple incoming.
The airfield destruction is particularly impressive and useful. The Russians are really feeling the consequences of the war in this aspect. Aviation is being steadily pushed back. Even more so as it was confirmed yesterday another Su-34 was downed by anti-air missiles. The Russians must be getting desperate as they used it in a close support role - something they rarely do these days.
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦!
🔥Moment of impact when the Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber crashed in the Cheremkhiv district of the Irkutsk region in russia.
There is not yet any information about the crew's condition.
The circumstances are not yet known.
Updates:
- The plane crashed 100 meters from the federal highway R-255.
- Local residents claim that they saw three parachutes, while there could have been four crew members on the plane. The fate of the crew is unknown.
- The plane crashed at approximately 22:11 local time.
After this, I can't believe any patriotic American would vote for him
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian fascist invaders.
I am a 73 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2993. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
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