TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian fascist invaders.
I am a 73 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2993. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
In the UK, they talk about the new PM Keir Starmer retracting the statement that Ukraine can use Storm Shadow against russia.
"Sir Keir Starmer has humiliated Britain, embarrassed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and handed an undeserved victory to Russia at his first international summit as Prime Minister", writes the retired British Army officer Richard Kemp in the Telegraph.
"It’s one thing to flip-flop on domestic policies but quite another, and far more dangerous, to do a screeching U-turn on a vital strategic subject with the eyes of the world on him.
But that’s precisely what he has achieved on the crucial issue of Storm Shadow missiles.
Only a couple of days ago, the international press hailed a new, more hawkish policy from the Government as Starmer suggested that Kyiv would be permitted to fire British Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russian territory, lifting previous restrictions on their use.
That decision was greeted enthusiastically by Zelensky, who added that he had discussed operational implementation with Starmer.
Inevitably, the Kremlin condemned the move as a dangerous escalation.
A day later, however, Downing Street clarified that Ukraine will not be able to use Storm Shadow to attack into Russia after all.
What’s going on? Pressure from the White House, cold feet in the face of Moscow’s outrage, or bungling by Starmer? Whichever it is, it is shambolic.", he continued.
This is already ongoing - only a week ago I spotted the three P-8 Poseidon’s of the USN at Keflavik and the Spanish F-101 Alvaro de Bazan in Reykjavik harbour and then she popped up nearby as we crossed to Greenland Sea. These waters are heavily patrolled by Russian submarines and it’s an ongoing NATO priority to keep an eye on them.
NATO and Ukraine however - still seems fragile to me.
‘Inevitable membership’ is the goal, but Hungary stands in the way and it’s never going to be an acceptable outcome for Russia - and if there’s to be peace at some point, the only way Russia will accept is if it has no choice.
Even if that sage is reached, it will be a continuous running sore Russia won’t like living with, even more so if it was effectively coerced in some peace deal.
I know what Ukraine and NATO really want is Ukraine inside the warm and protective embrace of the community of freedom, but achieving that goal seems almost impossible right now.
The other issue of course is the Nuclear Deterrent. America’s nuclear umbrella must remain universal. Britain and France can wreak havoc on Russia even with their small arsenals. Each could wipe out greater Moscow and St.Petersburg and more besides - Russia would never be the same but the mentality is based not on destructive capabilities and costs but on numbers of weapons. Russia has 6500, France & UK not even 500 between them and probably no more than 150-200 deployed jointly at any one time. And that would be generous. So is it a convincing enough reason to keep Russia at bay? To prevent nuclear blackmail? We just don’t know. So the US umbrella needs to be believed and real.
And that lead to a quite surprising development. The US is to place conventional long range Tomahawks and eventually hypersonics, in Germany with some haste. Those Tomahawks could be nuclear armed if it became necessary.
So the world is still changing at frightening pace. And just in case you thought China wasn’t deeply involved, its military exercises in Belarus were a clear statement of what they could potentially see themselves doing in the not overly distant future. Small now, China always starts that way. The end goal is not just a message of capability but of intent. Treat it as the threat it was meant to be seen as.
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX
NATO, HUNGARY & THE EU
Victor Orban’s pseudo fascist government is currently holder of the EU presidency, starting from July 1st to the end of December.
Orban has used this to parade in Moscow and Beijing, after a visit to Ukraine which did not by all accounts go well. Let’s call it cordial but pointless. The nations of the EU who hold the rotating presidency - it takes 13 ½ years to get through everyone - find it has had progressively less importance than it used to. It’s one of those things nobody wants to drop but has little real impact on EU affairs, far less than it did many years ago. It’s more like a First Lady role in American terms. You get to state your opinion and your views on pet projects - often promoting things that might get overlooked. Orban has chosen to act as the peacemaker without a peace plan.
He has no power or authority to represent the EU - but likes to puff his chest and look the part of… well what really?
Orban has now called a peace plan conference of EU ministers in Budapest - he has no right to do so on behalf of the EU and the EU isn’t going to stand for it. The outgoing head of Foreign and Security Matters, Joseph Borrell, has decided to call a formal meeting of EU foreign ministers the same day as Orban’s, which as it has legal authority will be attended.
Just to put the brakes even harder on Orban’s peacocking and self promotion - the new head of Foreign Relations and security for the EU is almost certainly the outstanding and formidable Kaja Kallas, who just resigned from her role as Prime Minister of Estonia to take the role. Nobody in Europe could be better suited to take up this portfolio. She will stand up for the Baltic’s, Poland and Ukraine and will maintain a powerful EU position that will unify the 26 who care while isolating further the one that clearly doesn’t.
Orban will meet his match in Ms Kallas.
NATO held its meeting - which was less thrilling than many expected. It represented 75 years of defending Western Values and democracy - despite having in its membership the autocracy of Orban’s Hungary and the somewhat tamed after the last elections, the semi-autocracy of Erdogan’s Turkey. These politicians are however transitory. Eventually they will pass.
The biggest concerns privately were what happens if Trump is re-elected? And that’s where the EU and NATO start to cover the same ground.
There is no question that like it or not, Europe is not going to be and cannot be the USA’s primary concern. Geopolitical instability is making it that the Asia Pacific region and China must be American priorities. By now, goes the theory, the Europeans should be able to fend for themselves. Frankly I concur. American military might has been an umbrella that has allowed Europe to avoid its fair share of the burden. It’s the only thing I agree with Trump on. Even now one third of the NATO membership still hasn’t reached 2.0% of GDP on defence. Yet talk of 2.5% is everywhere.
The UK continues to state that’s its aim is 2.5%, but when its aim will hit the target nobody will say. Yet another massive Strategic Defence Review is underway - expect it to conclude in a year’s time - give it to me and I can do it in one hour.
The idea is to stop this British (and by extension discourage others in Europe) from involvement in Asia. None of us has the military capability to change the outcomes so far from home and therefore there’s no point in trying. There really isn’t.
What we can do between us all is contain Russian air and naval forces in the NATO area and we can defend from any future Russian land attack. Provided we carry on the industrial and resource development toward rearmament.
According to the source of the Cheka-OGPU, a very effective corruption scheme is operating on the territory of New Moscow, in which the DGI (city property department) of Moscow and the Chairman of the Trinity Court of Moscow A.V. Bychkov are involved.
The scheme works as follows: A certain inspector goes around the territories and looks for real estate objects that, in the opinion of the Moscow Department of State Property Inspection, can be classified as unauthorized development. Naturally, taking into account Sobyanin’s bureaucracy, almost any object can fall under such criteria.
As a rule, at stage 1, the owner is invited to come to an agreement and resolve the issue for not much (in fact, not much!) money.
If an agreement cannot be reached, then a lawsuit is filed with the court for the demolition of the unauthorized building. In total, over the past 3 years, the judge, and at the same time the chairman of the Trinity Court, has considered about 170 such cases. A lawsuit means completely different money and completely different risks.
Next comes the consideration of the case. As a rule, the conclusion on the case is written by the same expert organizations: Expert Laboratory LLC, CNPE PetroExpert LLC, etc. Experts appointed by the court work out any tasks in cooperation with the participant in the process that is interested in the court.
The position of the DGI of Moscow, which constantly changes lawyers, is also surprising; it simply does not notice glaring facts (for example, there were cases when one decision was announced in court, but a completely different one was written on paper).
A separate business is interim measures and their cancellation.
In general, one can state that the Trinity Court and Bychkov created a real business scheme with billions in revenue.
Soaring ruZZian economy!!!
@freerussia_report
No better illustration of today's state of russian affairs.
A drunk dressed up as russian hussar shouting "The ruZZians don't give up!".
See the imagery .... the Z-world dressed in old imperial finery, demented and drunk on propaganda, lurching around screaming hate and slashing out at the world. While everyday Russians dodge the sword and continue on their way as if this is normal.
The bottle of vodka is just the final ruZZian touch.
@freerussia_report
Too much Vodka????
Near Volgograd, a participant in the war in Ukraine shot a crowd of children aged 9 to 13.
Near Volgograd, a participant in the war in Ukraine shot a crowd of children, writes the publication "Volgograd Online". One child got hit and is now in the hospital. The shooter was detained, and the case materials were transferred to the military investigation department.
Relatives of the injured boy contacted the editorial office of the publication. According to them, the shooting took place on the evening of July 12 in the village of Ugolsky, Serafimovichsky district:
"At about 21:00, the children were walking around the farm with a music speaker. We passed by the house of a participant in the special military operation, where there was an active contract soldier. There was some kind of party there. People were celebrating something. There was him, his brother - also a participant in the special military operation - and some woman. At some point, the adults went outside, the children became alert and turned off the music. After that, one of the girls in the group heard the sound of the gun being reloaded, and the children ran away."
The group of children aged 9 to 13 ran to the fence of a neighboring house, where the children stopped and turned around. Seeing no one behind them, they walked on. After that, the shots began: "The children fell to the ground, but then got up, turned around and saw two people. The children recognized the one who shot. At the same time, the shots did not stop. At that moment, a 12-year-old boy felt pain in his left leg. The children ran on, but the shots did not stop. The boy stopped, looked at his leg, saw blood, called his mother. She ran in, called an ambulance, the child was taken to the hospital. A perforating bullet wound was found there."
An hour later, the police arrived at the scene. The shooter was detained, his brother, who was with him at the "feast", was taken away. According to relatives, the shooter first denied everything, then confessed.
Don't expect any real sentence. It's totally normal to shoot at kids.
Source
@freerussia_report
"The teleprompter has died. Run for your life".
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/mike-johnson-suffers-surreal-teleprompter-malfunction/57115/
There seems to be some irregularity in the picking of J. D. Vance. Maybe he picked himself.
Donald Trump has a meltdown at least once a day.
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/donald-trump-has-berserk-meltdown-2/57109/
"Show you're on a prosthesis – and you're equal." How wounded soldier makes prostheses - hromadske
Sasha, a 29-year-old soldier, is constantly looking at his phone. He nervously taps his foot and occasionally looks back at the door with hope - he is looking forward to receiving his prosthesis. This will be the first time since his injury that the guy will be able to stand on two legs.
"I even took a second sock, I got used to it after 9 months," he smiles.
Sasha was wounded near Maryinka, Donetsk Oblast, in April 2023. Doctors had to amputate his leg below the knee.
In the small light blue hall of the prosthetic centre, there is no one else but Sasha. In the afternoon, the number of patients here decreases significantly. A little further down the corridor, behind a glass door, 39-year-old Denys is working. He is finishing the last work on the prosthesis and brings it to the boy. He smiles broadly when he sees his new leg.
- "Well, did you wait for it?" Denys asks the boy.
- "Yes," Sasha can't help but smile.
- "Let's go to the rehabilitation room and try it on.
Denys has been working at the prosthetic centre for more than six months. He is a former military man himself. His family is closely connected to the Armed Forces: three of his brothers are serving at the front, and the fourth was killed in the war in March 2024.
Denys's service began in 2015. He was in the ATO until 2019, and then joined the Air Force. On the first day of the full-scale invasion, the man was wounded in the leg by a rocket attack on his military unit. Doctors fought for several days to save his leg, but failed to do so.
After rehabilitation, Denys was offered a job as a prosthetist, and he accepted.
CONTINUES…
The Russians don’t have the flexibility or resource to manage both ends of the salient.
The bombing should have alerted the Ukrainians to what was happening, but the Russian attack seems to have surprised them. Where was the air support so willingly provided in the Liptsy area or the resources when this attack was launched?
Further south at Urazhine, which this time last year the Ukrainians were slowly taking during their failed summer offensive, the Russians have made significant gains, taking back most of it over several weeks.
In other areas small but persistent Russian gains keep eating away at the front lines.
We often laugh at the Russians and their primitive, careless and uncivilised behaviour, their brutality and lack of humanity. We make defensive success of how the Ukrainians have managed to deal with the latest Russian surprise attack - even when it was signalled a week or more in advance and yet nothing was done to disrupt it or seemingly plan for it, let alone react to it in a way that could have stopped it before it got so deeply into the defences it couldn’t be dislodged.
Ukraine has some very good commanders - but they are few and far between. Whoever is mismanaging the New York problem needs replacing - it should never have been allowed to get this far.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian fascist invaders.
I am a 73 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2993. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
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