derioredio @derioredio@qoto.org

I've been seeing some discussion online on whether the 9/11 attacks or the Jan 6th insurrection was 'worse' (whatever that means) for the US. I suppose it's inevitable since we now have plenty of adults that didn't experience 9/11 first-hand, similar to how I only know about the Kennedy assassination from learning about it, and they only knew about what it was like to experience the attack at Pearl Harbor from their parents, etc. Here's my attempt at a comparison of the two:

I don't necessarily agree or disagree that the Jan. 6th insurrection was worse than 9/11, it's a complex question. 9/11 was absolutely a huge emotional shock to the nation. It was unexpected and out of the blue (even though it wasn't even the first time Islamic terrorists had [attacked the Twin Towers](https://www.history.com/news/world-trade-center-bombing-1993-facts)), and shook the nation to its core. But in terms of raw statistics, the initial initial human cost boils down to just under 3K lives (plus ~340 more for first responders, etc. that have later died of cancer and other complications).

Economic costs were relatively small on a national scale: the buildings in Manhattan, airlines companies taking a huge blow, and a dip on the economy that recovered quickly. The Lehman shock in 2008 was orders of magnitude bigger than that.

But the costs due to US's response? Absolutely mind-blowing. The 20 year war on terror - which is the US's direct response to the 9/11 attacks - cost [8 *trillion* USD and 900K deaths](https://www.brown.edu/news/2021-09-01/costsofwar). Talk about disproportionate response! And the overall outcome can hardly be considered to be a success either: the Middle East is more unstable and more radicalized than before 9/11.

Despite all this though, the US was *never* under any serious threat in terms of its existence. The 9/11 attacks were terrorism in it's purest sense: their goal was to frighten us and make us terrified, and goad the US into an extreme and costly response. In terms of a cost/benefit ratio, the attacks at 9/11 were arguably *the* most successful military action in human history. Don't take my word for it, take it from [Osama bin Laden himself](https://www.pastemagazine.com/politics/september-11th/911-accomplished-every-goal-that-osama-bin-laden-w) in 2004:

> All that we have mentioned has made it easy for us to provoke and bait this administration. All that we have to do is to send two mujahidin to the furthest point east to raise a piece of cloth on which is written al-Qaida, in order to make the generals race there to cause America to suffer human, economic, and political losses without their achieving for it anything of note other than some benefits for their private companies.

> This is in addition to our having experience in using guerrilla warfare and the war of attrition to fight tyrannical superpowers, as we, alongside the mujahidin, bled Russia for 10 years, until it went bankrupt and was forced to withdraw in defeat.

I don't think Osama bin Laden and the Mujahidin can claim sole responsibility for the USSR's failure in Afghanistan (lots of global politics and economics involved there), but they were phenomenally successful in keeping them, and later the US, bogged down indefinitely in the Middle East until they tuck their tail between their legs and go back home. Disappointing, yes, and a huge economic cost, but for the US it was not at all a direct existential threat.

Derek Bassett, [9/12/2024 12:44 PM]
Jan 6th has some similarities and differences. Again the initial cost in terms of actual human lives or economic damage is very small: about 10 people dead, which is 300 times less than 9/11. The direct economic cost is really just the cost to repair the damage to the capital building, which is below rounding error on the national economy scale. Make no mistake though: it was an attempt to overthrow the US constitution and government. Fortunately for us it was poorly planned and executed. But it's intention was clear: if the mob had gotten to Nancy Pelosi or Mike Pence, they almost certainly would have been lynched. Trump and his cronies very clearly were trying to undermine the election in order to keep him in power. Their failure to do so is partly because the mob was poorly organized and not well-armed, but most significantly is because the Joint Chiefs of Staff [made absolutely sure](https://www.csis.org/analysis/joint-chiefs-january-6-2021-riot-washington) that the military did not get involved, esp. on the side of Trump. After all, it's hard to have a military coup when the military refuses to get involved.

If it had succeeded though, it would have essentially ended democracy in the United States. *That* is an existential threat. But it's hard to compare the two directly because 9/11 was well-planned, near perfectly executed, and an unmitigated success, while 1/6 was poorly planned, poorly executed, and a failure. But the *goals* of the 1/6 insurrection were much more dangerous for the US than the attacks at 9/11 were.

I did some basic analysis of how much stress/strain and stretching a figure skater's brain undergoes when they are spinning very rapidly, based on some video analysis and some simple solid mechanics.

https://www.moroha.net/blog/archives/950

Continuing my coverage of Kouhaku, watching the next day recorded. Onto the final stretch now...

43rd Act: 関ジャニ∞, which I also have to copy/paste and won't even bother trying to pronounce. They're one of the older Johnny's groups at this point, performing on Kouhaku for the 11th time. One of the members always wears sunglasses, he had a brain tumor a few years ago and one of the complications from the surgery affected the optic nerve and made him extremely sensitive to light, hence the ubiquitous sunglasses. Their concerts are very family friendly, and have a section for young families, nursing mothers with young children and babies, etc. Pretty unique, especially for a Johnny's group.

44th Act: 星野 源 Hoshino Gen, singing his song 喜劇 Kigeki, which is the ending song to the awesome hit anime Spy Family (highly reccomend!). He's been in every Kouhaku since 2015, so definitely maintaining a high popularity. It's a pretty mellow song, very relaxing.

45th Act: 氷川きよし Hikawa Kiyoshi. Since leaving Enka and having a sex change (sexual dysphoria), she's singing a heavy metal style that's reminiscent of X Japan. This specific song is one of the theme songs to the new Dragon Ball series. Still a great singer with great stage presence.

46th Act: 松任谷由実 Matsutoya Yumi. Singing a duet with herself from when she was younger. For her younger self they are projecting an uncanny valley CG image of her, which is kind of weird. Both of them have her signature hat that she always wears. All of her music is a very simple light pop style, lyrics are also very simple. On the other hand it's pretty easy for me to understand, which usually I have a lot of difficulty understanding the Japanese in pop music.

47th Act: KinKi Kids, a Johnny's duo who at this point are probably the longest running group out Johnny's Jimusho at 25 years after their debut. They're singing a medley of songs by Yamashita Tetsuro, a long time songwriter in the industry. Their singing is passable, which is pretty good for Johnny's group. When I think of Yamashita Tetsuro, I always think of his song Christmas Eve: https://youtu.be/wYQFvur_wns

48th Act: Old school rock group Anzen Chitai, now performing 40 years after their debut. Their drummer passed away this year, and are now performing in his memory. This is also their first time on Kouhaku in 37 years, though the singer Tamaki Kouji has been on numerous times as a solo artist. Tamaki's voice is still fabulous, with his easily recognizable singing style/signature. They're performing their debut song I Love You, which is a great feel-good song.

49th Act: Ishikawa Sayuri, singing - of course - her famous song Amagigoe 天城越え. It's a really powerful song, but she's only performed this song or her other famous ballad Tsugaru Kaikyo 津軽海峡 since 2006! She's performing with a live orchestra, and it's a really impressive song and performance, and always give me goosebumps! I just kind of feel sorry for, maybe she'd like to perform something else for a change...

50th Act: 桑田佳祐 Kuwata Keisuke, the main head of Southern All-Stars, wrote a song that he performed with some other old-school rockers: 佐野元春, 世良公則, Char, and 野口五郎. It's a fun two songs, and the old guys there on stage really look like they're having a great time performing together. Fun fact, the bassist in the back is the oldest son of Downtown's Hamada Masatoshi. Also the woman playing keyboard in the back is Kuwata's wife, they've been married for decades without ever even the hint of scandal.

51st Act: MISIA performing for her 7th time at Kouhaku. I wonder if she was live at Disney World and had to hurry over by helicopter or something, or if the earlier song was pre-recorded? Everyone on her song is wearing a weird rabbit costume, since 2023 is the year of the rabbit. It's kind of distracting, kind of like how I'm used to seeing a lot of unneeded and distracting dancing during an Enka song, though there didn't seem to be too much of that this year. MISIA is super-talented, but her style really isn't my thing for some reason.

52nd and final act: Of course it would be none other than Fukuyama Masaharu 福山雅治, who surprisingly is on location at NHK hall, normally he's doing a live concert at another location that they pipe in via satellite. Last year him and MISIA were the last two acts as well. He's singing one of his major hits Sakurazaka, a kind of slow ballad. Everyone in Japan knows this song from the reality TV show 未来日記 in 2000, where a Japanese and Korean fell in love and the show followed their ups and downs.

With that we have the voting for red (women) or white (men) teams. Votes come from three groups: the TV audience who votes with their remote control (or online via their website) , the studio audience who vote with an electronic device in person, and the celebrity judges in the front row. The results from the three groups are weighted equally.

As the countdown goes down to midnight, they sing 蛍の光, the Japanese version of Aud Lang Syne.

The votes are tallied, White wins this year.

And... it's all over for this year. お疲れさまでした。おめでとうございます、そして今年もよろしくお願いします！

#Kouhaku #紅白歌合戦

Continuing watching of Kouhaku in the 2nd act.

24th Act: the theme song from this year's One Piece film. Not an anime I've ever really enjoyed, so I don't really think much of it. Instead of showing the actual artist that sang the song though, they have a CG version of the One Piece character that sang the song in the film, some character imaginatively named Uta. I feel sorry for the actual artist that sang it.

Interlude: showing highlights from the Japanese team at the World Cup. Evidently the team coach is one of the 'judges' this year. He's now on stage with the team captain, all the hosts are talking about how awesome the World Cup was this year.

25th Act: King Gnu, appearing for their 2nd time. I recognize this group, though I don't remember anything particular about them. They're an actual band (i.e. they write and perform their own original music) with a modern style that's somewhat hip-hop inspired, but generally lyrical with punk influence as well. Evidently their song was the theme for the 2022 World Cup Japanese team. <shrug> Overall it's a good upbeat song that gets your blood pumping, so it works for a sports theme song in that regard. In the performance they're doing a lot on the state with pyrotechnics, etc.

26th Act: sigh... they're doing the Kendama world record *again*. It was tiring the 2nd (3rd?) time they did it, and now they're doing it yet again. The song is of course Miyama Hiroshi, a kind of bland Enka singer, who will be the final kendama to break the record. While Miyama sings in the foreground the line of people doing the kendama are shown in a corner inset. I kinda feel sorry for the steadicam guy that has to follow everyone through the entire song. They of course made it, so now the record of continuous people doing kendama without a mistake is 127 people, for whatever that means.

27th Act: TWICE, another Kpop girls group. I always complain about how the Johnny's groups are the same and that Akimoto Yasushi's girls groups are the same, but to be honest, the Kpop girls groups might be the most homogeneous. Esp. since they've almost all certainly had cosmetic surgery to fit the very strict beauty standard they all really look the same. As is typical for Kpop it's a really good dance tune that sounds like it should be in a nightclub.

28th Act: A Disney song medley. Started out by two of the hosts singing When You Wish Upon a Star in Japanese. After that is Sakurai with a lot of the Johnny's boys singing some weird Jamboree Mickey song that's a remix of the Mickey Mouse Club theme song. Following that is MISIA, who usually only shows up at the end of Kouhaku (note: she does show up at the end as well for her own song), singing a song that I don't recognize. This part appears to be at Tokyo Disneyland in a bunch of boats, probably at the sea portion of Tokyo Disneyland Resort. If this is live, MISIA will need to hurry to make it to the NHK hall for her own song at the end.

29th Act: Vaundy, a new act, performing at Kouhaku for the first time. Evidently he's still in college from what they said. He's pretty talented, has a really good voice. NHK still refuses to do any kind of pitch correction technology at the Kouhaku concert, so the people that can really sing really stand out, and this guy is great. Of course it also makes the Johnny's groups stand out as well, since they almost always can't sing. In living memory I don't think anyone was as bad as SMAP, but it's still noti, ceable compared to people that can really sing like this guy. Noticeable that the camera never really shows his face, he's always turning to the side or away from it, looking down so you can only see his hair, etc. From what we can see he's definitely not classically handsome and maybe a bit chubby (wearing very baggy clothes, etc.) I'm curious if he's self-conscious, or if the producers are hesitant to show someone that's not really really pretty.

30th Act: Vaundy again, now performing with some female artists that have also preformed solo: milet, Aimer, and 幾田りら. They all have really good voices and it's great to hear them sing together. Aimer was the singer for the Kimetsu no Yaiba, and she's a really versatile singer, singing this song that's a very different style and range for her.

31st Act: Comedy group ダチョウ倶楽部, joined by comedian 有吉弘行. Evidently one of their members died this year when he committed suicide, so he's joining them. Dachou Club is a pseudo- boy band, where they're all middle-aged and were formed to appeal to older women, they started out performing live at onsens, etc. and sing older songs from that generation. I have to admit that they can sing really well. After their nitial song, the comedians come on state and sing with them. Also evidently Ariyoshi was on Kouhaku about 25 years ago or something, so he has some history of being a singer and not just a comedian that has a lot of comedy shows with Matsuko Deluxe. Ariyoshi's initial debut on TV was when he hitchiked across Eurasia in one year, that was also about 25 years or so ago.

32nd Act: a band called 'back number' (no caps) singing the theme song to this year's morning drama, 舞い上がれ！The two stars of the drama are briefly on stage to introduce themselves, and since it's an NHK drama of course they NHK are going to promote it. The main actress on the drama is someone that I recognize from 10+ years ago when she did a kid's cooking show that my girls enjoyed watching, https://youtu.be/HYbjh1d-GQo. They are a 'special act', so after singing the drama theme song, the band then gets to sing one of their own songs. They're pretty talented, but nothing about their music particularly stands out to me.

33rd Act: Another Akimoto gir's group, Nogizaka 46. Evidently it's the last performance of one of the girls who is 'graduating' (i.e. getting too old) from the group. They're all pretty interchangeable as far as I can tell, so whatever. Like all these groups, they can't particularly dance or sing exceptionally well, but they are all really cute and do everything in unison. At least this isn't one of their normal live shows, where the audience is 90% guys over 30 which make the whole thing really creepy.

34th Act: 工藤静香 Kudou Shizuka, an old-school Idol from the 80s, performing at Kouhaku for the first time in 25 years. Evidently she's Kimutaku's wife? I had no idea. She's singing a medley of her 35 year career. Her music definitely sounds like 80s JPop. There is a live flute player on her 2nd song, she's very good. I'm just glad they decided not to have a bunch of distracting and useless dancers in the background for her songs. Back in the 90's she had a bit of a scandal when she was riding in the car with Yoshiki from X Japan and they were in a car accident in LA and had to call the police. Their relationship was not public up to that point. Then shortly afterwards she married Kimutaku, which evidently was a できちゃった婚.

35th Act: King & Prince, yet another Johnny's act. Their style is trying to emulate a hip hop style, but still unavoidably Johnny's. Pretty yawn-worthy imho, I'm relegated to looking up the next act while I have to listen to theirs.

36th Act: Official髭男dism, which I have to copy/paste the name because I can definitely not remember it, and can never remember how to pronounce it. They're quite talented, but I have to admit that their style really isn't my thing. This is their 3rd time on Kouhaku, starting in 2019. One thing I'll give them is that they have a very memorable band name, so they have good brand recognition.

37th Act: あいみょん, a solo singer/songwriter. Realy cute and really talented, with a really relaxing folksong style.

38th Act: 加山雄三 Kayama Yuzou, an old singer. Evidently he's suffering from Alheimer's and this will be his retirement and last performance. In his short introduction, I actually couldn't understand anything he was saying without subtitles at the bottom. Overall though, his voice is still pretty clear. Pretty darn good for his age. To misquote Yoda, "When 85 years old you become, look as good you will not". It became a bit more noticeable when he walked around the stage during his song, he's not able to walk very well.

39th Act: Superfly, performing for the 6th time. She is really talented with a really powerful voice. One can't help but notice that her teeth are crooked, though I think they may be better than in the past, she may be using Invisalign or something. Her smile is a lot cuter than what I remember in the past.

40th Act: Fujii Kaze. Evidently he's pretty popular overseas, my own daughter really likes their music. He starts out playing the piano, and they are *really* good, like classically trained professional pianist good. Then a transition to the main song, which is a very unique and kind of strange modern style, which ends with them (him? not sure since they seem to have an androgynous look and dress) seeming to die on the stage floor. Pretty unique act overall, but undeniable talent.

41st act: 篠原涼子 Shinohara Ryoko, she was a muse for Komuro Tetsuya, who is playing the piano for her. I vaguely remember this song, and especially remember that she can't sing very well. That certainly hasn't changed at all. After her debut as a singer she transitioned to acting and has been working steadily as an actress in Japan since then, though I'm not plugged into the Japanese geinou-kai enough to know much about her. Komuro has really aged though, he really looks old.

42nd act: Long time mainstay Yuzu, performing for their 13th time, singing their hit from 25 years ago, Natsuiro. I remember this song from when I was younger, which basically serves to make me feel old. On the other hand it probably has the same effect on the Yuzu duo as well.

Continuing on another toot.

#Kouhaku #紅白歌合戦

Edit on 1th act, that was Hinatazaka 46 that sang Kitsune. But they're all completely replaceable and exactly the same.

11th Act: JO1, a boy band I've never heard of, 1st time on Kouhaku. Don't think they're Johnny's, they have a markedly different style that looks very Kpop inspired. Since they're song was written by a Korean, my guess is they're managed by a Kpop production company.

Interlude: short interview with ice skater Hanyu Yuzuru.

12th Act: milet, a female artist. It's her 3rd time on Kouhaku, but I don't remember her particularly. She's singing a really powerful ballad, with a very strong voice, I wouldn't be surprised if she comes from a stage musical background. For some reason they show a bunch of clips of Hanyu Yuzuru skating in the background.

13th Act: NiziU, a Japanese girl group, but obviously heavily inspired by Kpop. Evidently formed in 2020 as part of a reality TV show, they were the final winners. Pretty forgettable imho.

14th Act: Suzuki Masayuki 鈴木雅之. singing a soul/funk style song. I don't know much about him, but he's been active since the 80s.

15th Act: BE:FIRST, some boy band group I've never heard of, first time on Kouhaku. They're not Johnny's, they were also formed as part of a reality TV show. Pretty forgettable, not really my thing.

Interlude: a few comedians doing some kendama and other stuff. I *really* hope they're not trying to break the kendama world record again...

16th Act: Sekai No Owari, on Kouhaku for their 6th time. A pretty interesting style, with really fast lyrics and dancing, but not idol boy-band or girl-band style. I really dig this song, pretty cool.

Interlude: introducing the characters for NHK's morning drama. It's their own show, so they can pimp it out as much as they like.

17th Act: Miura Daichi 三浦大知, singing the theme song for the NHK morning drama. Again, it's NHK so of course they're going to promote their own TV show.

18th Act: IVE, a Kpop girl group. To me all these groups look and sound exactly the same. Of course they can dance quite well as required by their manager/handlers.

19th Act: Snow Man, another Johnny's group. I don't know what it is about Johnny's groups, but they're very easily identifiable. They can't really sing that well, but most of their song is in the spoken verse, style, so it doesn't really matter.

20th Act: Perfume, a regular at Kouhaku (15th time!), singing a medley of their songs. I have to admit I have a soft spot for them.

21st Act: Two of the people from X Japan with two other rockers: YOSHIKI, HYDE, SUGIZO, and MIYAVI. Performing a song written by Yoshiki called THE LAST ROCKSTARS. Yoshiki is of course there with his signature transparent piano. Overall, the song is kind of overwrought and all over the place, not really my thing.

22nd Act: Aimer, singing the theme song for Kimetsu no Yaiba. As an anime song artist, she's super-talented.

23rd Act: Sakamoto Fuyumi 坂本冬美, an Enka singer doing a song originally by Misora Hibari. They still like to do a tribute to her at Kouhaku every once in a while. Of course Sakamoto Fuyumi's singing is absolutely incredible as befits an Enka singer.

Interlude: an advertisement for the NHK produced historical drama, aka Taiga drama. The main actor for the drama is on stage chatting with one of the hosts.

Then they have to advertise next years Taiga Drama, who happens to star one of the ARASHI members.

This is a very long interlude, so it must be the intermission between the 1st half and 2nd half.

Continuing when I finish watching the 2nd half.

#Kouhaku #紅白歌合戦

We may not have to endure all of ARASHI hosting *again*, but we still have to endure Sakurai from ARASHI.

This year's theme is 'Love and Peace'. We tried to watch it with the Japan internet TV service we subscribe too, but it was *way* too laggy with everyone trying to use it at the same time.

Thanksfully, bittorrent to the rescue! It's already up on nyaa.si and I was able to download it in <10 minutes.

First Up: boy bad SixTONES. Never heard of them before, but the fact they're all pretty and can't sing means they're from Johnny's.

I guess with the retirement/demise of SMAP and ARASHI, Johnny's is just throwing everything against the wall and seeing what sticks. And since Johnny's always puts really heavy pressure on the NHK execs to include a lot of their acts, we get no-talent acts like these guys.

Second Act: Tendo Yoshimi 天童よしみ. An Enka mainstay, like all the Enka artists she can actually sing. She's a long time Kouhaku act, she's performed every year as long as I can remember.

Third Act: 緑黄色社会, which I've never heard of, apparently it's their first time on Kouhaku. Pretty good up-beat music, and they're really talented.

Fourth Act: Go Hiromi, another long-time mainstay. He's singing a medley of a few of his big hits, including a duet with the Hostess, and of course his cover of Living the Vida Loca, which always throws me for a loop. Backup dancers included a bunch of こぎやる, which was a bit weird to see.

Interlude: introduction of a few of the judges:
* Another ARASHI member
* Kuroyanagi, who they seem to have propped up out of her coffin for the show

Fifth Act: なにわ男子, another boy band, they are almost certainly Johnny's. ... After watching them though, I'm not sure since they can at least sing half OK. But the style of the music is absolutely Johnny's, so they must have been able to form a group of guys that can actually sing for a change.

Interlude: the host of some NHK show where this guy asks people puzzles and stuff chats with the hosts and asks a quiz.

Sixth Act: Mizumoto Kaori, an Enka singer. Her singing is fabulous, but since NHK won't let someone just stand there and sing, they have some dancers in the background doing a weird dance that doesn't seem to have anything to do with the song.

Interlude: answering the quiz question to kill some time while they change the state.

7th Act: LE SSERAFIM, a KPop act. I don't know anything about them. As befitting Kpop, it sounds like basic dance club music with a super heavy bass. And the girls can of course dance really well.

8th Act: Saucy Dog, an actual musical group (i.e. they write and perform their own music). First time on Kouhaku. Nice song, they have a folk music feel to their music, really cool.

9th Act: Nogizaka 46 (one of Akimoto Yasushi's cookie-cutter cute girl acts) dancing to What Does the Fox Say of all things. Then 山内惠介 comes out and actually sings one of his Enka songs as a mashup with the Fox song. It's really *really* weird.

10th Act: Now Nogizaka 46 continues with they're own song, Kitsune. It's completely forgettable and sounds like all the songs from Akimoto's girl groups.

Ending this post and continuing in another one before it gets way too long.

#Kouhaku #紅白歌合戦

Since we don't have the Gaki no Tsukai New Year's Eve special any more (Hamada and Matsumoto et al decided it was too violent), there's really nothing else to watch in Japan on New Year's Eve anyway.

Sitting down with Mrs. derioredio to watch the Japanese New Years Eve TV show, the NHK #kouhaku #紅白歌合戦, timeshifted back 15+ hours. I will be tooting my thoughts and impressions of the overwrought NHK production as I watch.