l'empathie mécanique @dpwiz@qoto.org

@reidrac@social.sdf.org Please go on. Let the game become its best version.

(Unless this block you from having something even better!)

@amiloradovsky i think using lognormal makes sense given it represents the long tail of "ways this can go wrong" while yielding to central limit nicely.

I just thought that ELI5 of it can be something like "estimating order of magnitude". Something like "weeks" is anywhere from 7 days to a month.

@amiloradovsky those "hours" numbers, are lower/upper bound? Mean/median? Anyway, there's a missing variance information. And usually that's what screws your deadlines. Sufficiently high average numbers aren't actionable.

@amiloradovsky a cli version would be nice indeed

@amiloradovsky squiggle is just a bunch of js, should work offline.

You don't need to have a statistics insight, just combine those intervals and get the risk profile: given X amount of resources I will fuck that up in Y% of cases.

@xameer lazy eval is basically GC for execution.

If you like your memory and cars on manual, you'll hate it there.

@amiloradovsky It is easy enough to run guesstimates:

https://www.squiggle-language.com/playground#code=eNptkdtqwzAQRH9lMBRaGtILbSmFPPU3DGEdbWwRWRukdYwp%2FfeulPTy0EdbO2dmdj8ax3uagr6L4%2BatubtD2%2BjAUMoH%2BAymvKzQTQqvmGUKDh3jxGnBQMlBBT3XRz5xxJ6ycmqbNhrpRxFFDXhgBM4ZOlDEEwaZUsa1xLDg%2BQqUGDJp8JzyTZVTdP8gRrHBinj9RlBPPq5QSQ%2BQPR7va%2F6M4A91WGtIsdhdkDka%2F5hYddnmyWgbS2M9XtHGatw2sw%2FhbEdwtEASdJZSi7ad122tvjGFyR5efmQjLbac2VQhMbkFzpcK6%2FP%2B9qXEqlTa1UoX%2Fjz4wOvCNle37aeyo40VMfbT%2FYVdTjKylVY%2FcnnZyXgMrOZWopqrS74coFtwouQp7vh8gzWv8X3QbNM61M%2FZO86KRLG3QRWlYKZ%2Ft3KLP11v8RvuEinKjCBygG23EI%2BcdhzVymQ7Rf2VfD9oG5vPL9Af05U%3D

But, as they say in docs, you gonna need a bit of training to get overconfidence under control.
The good news here, is the `x to y` model is less underconfidence-sensitive so you can set "protect thy ass" upper ranges and still get an realistic, actionable estimate.

@amiloradovsky lognormal from percentile intervals for the rescue!

https://www.squiggle-language.com/docs/Guides/DistributionCreation#to

@fortune Privacy is the beginning of anarchy.

@joris state machines are hard

@amiloradovsky I *did* care about my company mission despite not being a shareholder or something. But the payment was also quite good.
And it helped me to pull through some difficult times.

The problem starts where the payment is substituted by the mission.

Like in ads, where they sell you happiness or some other stupid cliche, but you're buying some stupid stuff or service of theirs.
I'd fucking sue for false advertising if I could.

@dragonsidedd @anarchopunk_girl I don't find this particular design inherently evil. Hub-and-spokes design is helpful in a hospital triage rooms, leveraging staff and allowing safety for more patients.

@Scmbradley @cwebber automate away the money

@iximeow @whitequark this is so broken / it's so useful

@hackernews@die-partei.social ...in mice^W response to users' requests

@amiloradovsky Something like GNU Taler? https://taler.net/en/faq.html

My retirement plan is entering postsingularity before running out of funds

@acegikmo something-something wedge product?..

@glassbottommeg @mike all y'all!