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Weather, genetics, access to water, food, nutrition, physical fitness of the population, age distributions, insularity, there are hundreds if not thousands of factors.
More over it is the factors we dont know.. there is a raeson experts in tthe field do it the way they do and reject the analysis approach you did.. just because you cant think of the hidden confounding variables doesnt mean they arent there.
The quality studies on the effectiveness of respirators show that they are more effective than the vaccine. And unless you have evidence for transmission via some quantum nonlocality mechinism, isolation prevents spread of the disease. Those techniques are proven effective. China used them, we didn't. And the results show it.
@Pat I never made any claim in this thread that respirators **arent** effective... or even that japan didnt make good choices... all im saying is the evidence you presented to back this up is invalid.. perhaps good evidence would support your conclusion though.
You're right, I'm not a statistician. What set me off on all this is an interview that Dr. Jha did on ABC's This Week (he's the guy currently heading the US response to the pandemic). So, in this interview, the guy running the group that is responsible for more than a million dead Americans, says that China (who's death rate <1% of the US rate) is doing it wrong. These people are evil, absolute evil.
There may be some validity to that depending on how you look at it. But I'd have to do more research to say.
Generally when you use masks excessively for any disease the number of cases go down but the mortality rate goes up, particularly over the long term. In fact if you wear respirators too much or are excessive about wiping germs you have a much higher chance of autoimmune disorders too.
So it is reasonable to think china may have fewer overall cases, but more people are dying either directly of COVID or of developed auto immune diseases.
I know off hand the morality rate of covid in China is twice that of the USA, without a proper study I cant say what the real death toll is, but there is enough to suggest there may be some validity here, MAYBE... need to see a proper study.
Yup, tons of things we can speculate... The real problem is all the factors we cant forsee... For all we know there is a food they eat that protects against covid, who knows.... most of what we do in the world of statistics is to proctect us against the things we arent aware of.
@freemo
And you have a valid point about demographics having a significant impact on death rate. For example, in many African countries, they had a huge AIDS epidemic recently that took out a lot of people and therefore have a much younger demographic, and therefore did much better with COVID-19.
@admitsWrongIfProven