Does anyone else constantly wish for access to actuarial tables for everything?
What are my chances of getting Lyme disease if I go hiking 6x / month in the summer in CT? How dangerous is a motorcycle vs. bike vs. car?
I need a http://microcovid.org, but for everything.
If anyone's curious how I landed on this: I signed up to do it because while the incidence of Lyme disease is fairly low in absolute terms, the rate of severe adverse effects from phase 2 trials is also very low.
But it turns out the trial is closing on Monday, so I'd need to get the first shot then, and they want 2 weeks between getting the Lyme vaccine and getting the COVID vaccine — and I'm scheduled to get the first COVID vaccine shot on Monday.
I could put off the COVID vaccine for 2 weeks, but I believe that would have practical downsides for me, and I don't think that the practical benefits of getting the Lyme vaccine aren't high enough to overwhelm that.
🇳🇱
@pganssle Yea I have thought about this often too.
@pganssle THIS RESONATES WITH ME
@brainwane Time to try and get WMF on board in building some sort of open risk analysis database, as I also suggested here: https://twitter.com/pganssle/status/1380531656344399876?s=20
I feel like it would have to be a major undertaking and I can't think of anyone other than WMF/Wikipedia who has actually managed to scale something while maintaining a sense of collaboration and openness.
@pganssle
I vaguely remember seeing something like this ages ago, a page calculating or at least presenting data about micromorts. I doubt it would be as comprehensive as you would hope, but I wasn't able to find it again anyway, so that's a moot point.
@pganssle Interesting post but definitely NO in my case! (See Bergman's The Seventh Seal)
What brought this up today is that I'm thinking of signing up for this Lyme disease vaccine trial: https://clinicaltrials.chasemr.com/adults-lyme-disease-vaccine-clinical-trial-0-1
#Connecticut is one of the worst states for Lyme infection, but baseline prevalence is still 0.035%.
I'm finding it very difficult to calculate the expected utility of participating in a vaccine trial for Lyme, given that I plan to do a good amount of hiking in CT in the summer, but I'm also good about wearing long pants and using tick spray.