Paul Ganssle @pganssle@qoto.org

If anyone's curious how I landed on this: I signed up to do it because while the incidence of Lyme disease is fairly low in absolute terms, the rate of severe adverse effects from phase 2 trials is also very low.

But it turns out the trial is closing on Monday, so I'd need to get the first shot then, and they want 2 weeks between getting the Lyme vaccine and getting the COVID vaccine — and I'm scheduled to get the first COVID vaccine shot on Monday.

I could put off the COVID vaccine for 2 weeks, but I believe that would have practical downsides for me, and I don't think that the practical benefits of getting the Lyme vaccine aren't high enough to overwhelm that.

Anyone else seen this and might be able to find it?

Like @timorl says, might not be as comprehensive as I had hoped, but anything in this vein would be a good start.

What brought this up today is that I'm thinking of signing up for this Lyme disease vaccine trial: https://clinicaltrials.chasemr.com/adults-lyme-disease-vaccine-clinical-trial-0-1

#Connecticut is one of the worst states for Lyme infection, but baseline prevalence is still 0.035%.

I'm finding it very difficult to calculate the expected utility of participating in a vaccine trial for Lyme, given that I plan to do a good amount of hiking in CT in the summer, but I'm also good about wearing long pants and using tick spray.

Does anyone else constantly wish for access to actuarial tables for everything?

What are my chances of getting Lyme disease if I go hiking 6x / month in the summer in CT? How dangerous is a motorcycle vs. bike vs. car?

I need a http://microcovid.org, but for everything.

I've heard here and there about a bird disease going around and that people should take down their feeders, but I can't find any good up-to-date resources about what parts of the country (US) are affected.

Anyone know if there is a good website that will tell me whether or not I should take down my feeders, and when I should put them back up?

#birds #birding #wildlife

Interesting, Metaculus was overly pessimistic about the timeline for the COVID-19 vaccine, but not absurdly so considering that predictions closed on May 2020:

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3860/when-will-a-vaccine-targeted-at-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-be-administered-to-at-least-10m-people/

How many people 11 months ago would have put even 25% probability of widespread vaccination by March 2021?

Also a good way to introduce them to being skeptical of the motives of supernatural beings.

How to explain the Easter bunny to your children if you don't want them eating so much candy:

"Yes, we know he comes every year to leave us candy. What we don't know is what he takes in return..."

I bought a 3-pack of Chapstick a few months ago and I just finished using up the last one *without* losing or putting any of them through the dryer.

I'm mildly afraid to tell anyone, since those who know me will assume that this is an obvious lie meant as a distress beacon.

Not a bird, but when I was chasing down the Pileated Woodpecker, I came across this very sleepy squirrel and had to take a photo.

This was right around noon, so I'm guessing he had a big lunch...

I also found this male and female Eastern Bluebird pair hanging around by a nest near the river.

I have no idea if it's accurate, but in my head they are a breeding pair guarding or establishing a nesting location (though maybe they tried it out in college and it didn't work out, so now they're "just friends").

#birding #birds

I also got my first picture of a Pileated Woodpecker just the other day — then I saw two more directly in my back yard this morning!

They are surprisingly big...

#birding #birds #photography

The robins are also out in full force, running around everyone's yards, pecking away.

#birding #birds #photography

The goldfinches in my area seem to be right behind them. Here's a picture of a goldfinch 11 days ago, and another goldfinch yesterday: he's molting!

#birding #photography #birds

Looks like the birds got the message that it's spring! It seems these red-winged blackbirds are back and in full breeding plumage.

#birding

On the plus side, if he keeps it up, maybe I'll eventually get those ripped jaw muscles the ladies go wild for.

Is it possible to shatter a night guard into tiny pieces using only your jaw strength? Apparently my sleeping mind thinks it is, and finds that a desirable outcome for some reason, because I wake up every morning feeling like I've been single-handedly trying to eat a locomotive...

Whenever I drain the bath lately, my son has been saying, "I wish I could go down the drain." I was confused as to why he would want this, but then I realized, he's mimicking Daniel Tiger — apparently he saw this, but missed that Daniel was *afraid* of going down the drain.😅