比較驚訝中國外交體系對四方對話接觸孟加拉的反應一開始就如此激烈:
"China felt it was the right time to warn Bangladesh against the Quad amid growing pressure on the government to continue the vaccination campaign and Dhaka’s subsequent reliance on Beijing to get vaccines. Taking advantage of the devastating COVID-19 situation in India, China deepened anti-COVID-19 cooperation with Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh, and floated a vaccine storage reserve for South Asia. This new platform aims at providing vaccines to its member nations on a priority basis during emergencies.
Under the leadership of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh has been maintaining a balancing act between global powers. Dhaka is deeply aware that it needs to maintain good relationships with powerful nations such as the United States, India, China, and Japan to ensure its continued development, both economically and infrastructurally."
https://thediplomat.com/2021/05/chinas-warning-to-bangladesh-on-the-quad/
補俄方對南亞局勢的觀察:
"俄羅斯科學院東方研究所印度研究中心主任塔季揚娜·紹米揚在接受衛星通訊社採訪時就此評論道:「中國與斯里蘭卡的關係正在快速發展。在與尼泊爾和孟加拉國的關係中也觀察到了同樣的趨勢。這些國家在過去幾年中一直在努力保護自己免受龐大印度的威脅。他們與中國的接近發生在中印關係最糟糕的時期,當時兩國關係的緊張已經趨於白熱化。現在印中關係出現了緩和,中國同時正在通過與印度鄰國發展關係,建立與該地區所有國家的信任關係來平衡它們之間的關係。」"
補認識尼泊爾與印度的領土糾紛:
"In 2020, when India committed cartographic aggression by publishing a map showing the Kalapani-Lipulekh-Limpiyadhura stretch of land as its territory, the Oli government responded by issuing a map depicting it as a part of Nepal and getting it endorsed by the Nepali Parliament and including it in the constitution.
According to historical documents and evidence of tax collection from locals, this stretch of land in Nepal’s far west belongs to the country. However, in Indian eyes, Oli went too far by formally including it in the constitution. The Nepali move, which came at a time when India was hurting after the violent clash with China at Galwan in Ladakh, ended up stirring Indian suspicions over the Oli government’s intentions."
https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/is-nepal-now-courting-india-and-ignoring-china/
尼泊爾與中國的邊界也出現問題:
"尼泊爾與中國在1960年代初期簽署一系列劃界條約,兩國邊界沿著喜馬拉雅山脈綿延近1400公里,多半位於人跡罕至的偏僻地區。國界上立有一系列柱子作為標記,但柱子之間相隔好幾公里,有時難以判定界線究竟在哪。
之前尼泊爾西端的胡姆拉地區(Humla)傳出中國侵占土地的消息,有些消息還稱中方在尼國境內築起建物,尼泊爾政府決定派遣警方和政府代表組團前往當地。
根據BBC取得的報告,這支團隊發現,中國維安部隊的監控,已使尼泊爾境內拉倫鍾地區(Lalungjong)的宗教活動受到限制。此地因靠近印度教徒和佛教徒的聖地岡仁波齊峰(Mount Kailash),原本常吸引朝聖者前往。
報告結論也提到,中方限制尼泊爾農民放牧活動,而且在同一區域內,中方於一根邊界支柱周圍搭起圍籬,並企圖在尼國境內興建水渠和道路。"
BBC報導有提到出逃藏人過去兩年常在加德滿都抗議:
"China might also be worried about movement in the opposite direction.
The region on the Chinese side of the border is Tibet, from where many people have fled to escape what they see as Beijing's repression.
About 20,000 Tibetan refugees live in Nepal; others have passed through on their way to India and elsewhere.
Over recent years, China has tried to cut off this escape route.
There have been reports of Chinese encroachment into Nepal over the last two years, leading to occasional protests in the Nepalese capital, Kathmandu. The latest demonstration was just last month."
尼泊爾夾在印度與中國之間也不容易:
"The Pokhara airport is one of several Nepalese projects for the Belt and Road Initiative, which the country signed onto in 2017. China has agreed to finance a feasibility study for a cross-border railway that would be part of a so-called Trans-Himalayan connectivity network that may eventually include highways connecting the two countries. Nepal is also seeking Chinese assistance for a power transmission line that would cross the countries’ border.
But Nepal has rejected the designation of the airport as a Belt and Road project, because that label has complicated its diplomatic ties with India — its neighbor and rival to China for influence in the region. India, a major destination for Nepali travelers, has dragged its feet on approving flights to and from the airport."
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/12/business/china-nepal-pokhara-airport.html
"CAMC designed the airport drainage system without taking into account historical rainfall data in locations across Pokhara and the sloping topography near the site, forgoing a standard practice in international construction. Without such considerations, Mr. Gautam said, the airport was at risk of flooding during heavy rains. There was also no paperwork ensuring the quality of Chinese-made building materials or information on the Chinese vendors providing the components, he said, contrary to the stipulations in CAMC’s contract with Nepal.
中工國際設計機場排水系統時沒有考慮博克拉地區的歷史降雨數據,以及施工現場附近的傾斜地形,沒有按照國際建築標準去做。不考慮這些的話,高塔姆說,機場在大雨期間就有被水淹沒的危險。沒有確保中國製造的建築材料的質量的文件,也沒有提供建築部件的中國供應商的信息,他說,這不符合中工國際與尼泊爾簽訂的合同中的規定。"
https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20231020/nepal-pokhara-airport-china/zh-hant/dual/
美中抗衡情勢越篤定, 印太周邊國家需要表態的機率就越高, 保持等距越形費力.
[ So far, Indonesia has been relatively successful in maintaining bilateral relations with the two world powers and maintaining its long-standing principle of a “free and active” foreign policy. Relations are also complementary. According to Collin Koh, a researcher at the Institute for Defense and Strategic Studies in Singapore, Indonesia’s relations with China are overwhelmingly economic, while it “is closer to the U.S. in terms of defense and security.” ]
https://thediplomat.com/2021/07/indonesias-delicate-dance-between-china-and-the-us/
才貼完魏鳳和的南亞出訪資料,馬上就看到美方這廂嘀咕魏鳳和級別低於許其亮的抱怨文(轉頭看南亞諸國幫QQ
[ 一名美國國防官員稱,美方要求奧斯汀與許其亮通話,但“中國軍方一直沒有做出回應”。據第二位官員稱,除了奧斯汀的對話請求出現僵局外,米利將軍自今年1月拜登總統宣誓就職前就沒有與中國對等層級的官員進行過對話。]
[ 報導稱,奧斯汀原本計畫下月參加在新加坡舉行的香格里拉對話,中國國防部長魏鳳和預計也會出席。不過,今年的會議最終因新冠疫情緣故本周宣布取消。美國國防官員說,曾討論讓奧斯汀在新加坡與魏鳳和會面的事宜,但遭到奧斯汀反對。在拜登內閣中排名第四的奧斯汀希望與在中國政治和軍事體系中級別都高於魏鳳和的許其亮通話。這位美國官員說,“我們認為適當的對應方是中央軍事委員會的副主席。”
報導提及,2018年,時任美國國防部長馬蒂斯(Jim Mattis)到訪北京時曾與許其亮會面。但其餘時間裡,與美方軍事高官接觸的一直是魏鳳和,這讓美方越發受挫,因為魏鳳和在中國體制中權力很小,也不是具有決策權的25名中央政治局委員中的一員。]
親中的南華早報也報導了美中溝通管道斷聯現象, 並點出中國底線和美海軍未跨中線.
廢話: 豪強本來就跟潑皮不一樣好嗎!
[ “It’s understandable that the Chinese defence ministry would reject requests from their American counterparts during their fierce competition, with Beijing feeling that its bottom line was challenged by the US,” Shi said, referring to Washington’s efforts to promote a closer relationship with Taiwan and its sanctions against Beijing for alleged human rights violations in Xinjiang. ]
[“Despite their war of words, both the People’s Liberation Army and their American counterparts are quite careful to avoid making any provocative moves to inflame each other,” ]
在維尼帝整肅風險下,PLA沒有搞軍事對話的空間:
"斯卡倫卡說:「(美軍印太司令部司令)阿基里諾(John Aquilino)一直提議與中國軍方東部戰區和南部戰區司令對話,但未獲任何回應。」
「我4年前來印太司令部,在兩位作戰司令手下做事。這兩位沒有一人能與他們的對口官員對話。這樣很危險。」
共軍東部戰區司令員的管轄範圍涵蓋東海與台灣海峽,南部戰區司令則包含南海。"
看來熊帝對解放軍人事的清理告一段落了?
“路透社報導,美國參謀首長聯席會議(Joint Chiefs of Staff)透過聲明表示,布朗(Charles Q. Brown Jr.)將軍透過視訊電話會議與中國人民解放軍的劉振立將軍進行對談。”
沒想到兩年後就見到魏鳳和實現伴君如伴虎這句老話的景況了...
"中共「全軍武器裝備採購訊息網」7月26日發布消息稱,中央軍委會裝備發展部發布「關於徵集全軍裝備採購招標評審專家違規違紀線索的公告」,要徵集自2017年10月以來採購違規違紀問題的線索。追查範圍包括操守缺失、拉幫結派、以專謀私、泄密及監管缺失等。而針對的2017年10月之後進行調查,正是李尚福執掌裝備發展部的時期。
此外,火箭軍首任司令員魏鳳和,在今年3月卸任國防部長後再未露面。他是習近平上台後晉升的首名上將,又由習一手提為國防部長。傳言被查的李玉超等人,以及死亡的火箭軍前副司令員吳國華,都是魏鳳和在火箭軍的舊部。"
QUAD的孟加拉案外案:
「在QUAD峰會結束後沒過兩星期,在印度就「適時」的爆發傳染力強且致死率更高的新型變種病毒,導致外包印度生產疫苗的操作被延遲。而在這個時候,中國又對南亞的孟加拉施壓,宣稱孟加拉只能在中製疫苗及QUAD疫苗中二選一。這搞得孟加拉外長氣到公開說孟加拉是個主權獨立國家,有其自主的外交決策。但與中國不讓台灣取得其他疫苗相比,孟加拉只是必須做出選擇,不能兩種都有,孟加拉受到的待遇自然是好得多。」
IMF出手救烏俄戰爭的南亞池魚孟加拉了:
"Bangladesh’s plight is an example of the far-reaching consequences of global inflation and recession concerns sweeping much of the developing world. Bangladesh economists say the global shocks of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and ensuing inflation have merely served to highlight longstanding structural problems in Bangladesh’s economy, ranging from overspending on infrastructure projects, an inefficient tax regime, an overreliance on garment exports and an inequitable distribution of the industry’s spoils."
@Perfume 所以不要以爲土共都是酒囊飯袋,雖然大部分是,即使是蠢豬只要有錢也有一堆窮哥們跟在後面舔
印象中,魏鳳和當初兩趟南亞之行重點在斯里蘭卡與巴基斯坦,孟加拉只能算是斯里蘭卡的稍帶前菜,並非重點。
"摩門說,四方對話成員中沒有一個曾就加入該組織而與孟加拉接洽過。摩門說,李極明的言論為時過早。
摩門還表示,中國干預孟加拉的國家事務是不尋常的。他說:「我們沒想到中國會這樣做。」
但是李極明10日在孟加拉外交記者協會(DCAB)表示,中國國防部長魏鳳和在最近訪問南亞國家時也傳達了同樣的資訊。"
https://www.rti.org.tw/news/view/id/2099351