TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org

Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 20, 2024 (A few highlights regarding US aid)

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• Because the aid passed in the House of Representatives of the US must also pass the Senate and be signed by President Joe Biden, weapons and ammo from this aid package will probably take several weeks to find their way to the frontlines. The frontline will, therefore, remain in a precarious state. Prompt arrival of aid from the Americans should allow Ukraine to blunt the overall Russian offensive efforts.

• Ukraine will likely be in a significantly improved operation position by June 2024 and Russian military command will most likely reconsider several aspects of their anticipated 2024 offensive in the Kharkiv region.

• The anticipated resumption of US military aid to Kyiv is a significant turning point in this war, but the Kremlin, the collective West, and Ukraine still have many difficult decisions to make. All of which will help determine the nature and outcome of the fighting.

Because the aid passed in the House of Representatives of the US must also pass the Senate and be signed by President Joe Biden, weapons and ammo from this aid package will probably take several weeks to find their way to the frontlines. The frontline will, therefore, remain in a precarious state. Prompt arrival of aid from the Americans should allow Ukraine to blunt the overall Russian offensive efforts.

The US Senate will reportedly vote on the bill sometime in the coming week. Pentagon Spokesperson Brigadier General Patrick Ryder stated on April 19 that the Pentagon’s robust logistics system will allow the United States to move security assistance within a matter of “days” and that he believes that the United States will be able to “rush the security assistance in volumes” that the United States believes Ukraine will need to be successful.

US Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Celeste Wallander reportedly told US lawmakers that the Pentagon would begin moving ammunition, artillery shells, and air defense assets quickly once Congress approves the aid.

US media reported that US officials stated that the US Department of Defense (DoD) has been assembling the first tranche of resumed US security assistance for Ukraine ahead of the vote in the US House of Representatives but noted that the Biden administration has yet to make a final decision on how large the first tranche of aid will be or what it will include.

US officials reportedly stated that the United States will be able to “almost immediately” send certain munitions to Ukraine from US storage facilities in Europe, particularly critically needed 155mm artillery shells and air defense missiles.

The US officials noted that other security assistance will likely take weeks to arrive in Ukraine depending on where it is currently stored.

Ukraine has systematically improved its military logistics operations in recent months, but this new system has not yet accommodated a sudden and large influx of materiel, and no system would be able to immediately distribute large quantities of material throughout the frontline.

Ukrainian forces will therefore likely continue to face ongoing shortages of artillery ammunition and air defense interceptors in the coming weeks and the corresponding constraints that these shortages are placing on Ukraine’s ability to conduct effective defensive operations.

Ukrainian artillery shortages are letting Russian mechanized forces make marginal tactical gains, and Ukraine’s degraded air defense capabilities are permitting Russian aviation to heavily degrade Ukrainian defenses along the front with glide bomb strikes.

Russian forces could continue to leverage these operational advantages in the coming weeks to make further tactical gains and destabilize the Ukrainian defensive line in hopes of achieving operationally significant advances.

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Russia is hysterical over US aid to Ukraine and asset confiscation

Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the US aid to Ukraine approved by the House of Representatives will "make more dead Ukrainians" and enrich the United States, and threatened that the US will have to answer for the confiscation of frozen Russian assets.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called the support of Ukraine "direct sponsorship of terrorist activities.

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⚡️The police detained two suspects in the attack on the police officers - they face life imprisonment.

🔹Two servicemen involved in the shooting of police officers in the Vinnytsia region were detained in the village of Lipetske, Podilsky District, Odesa Region.

🔹Currently, the detainees are being investigated. A notification of suspicion is prepared for them and the question of choosing preventive measures is decided.

🔹The detainees are two military men, a father and a son, aged 52 and 26. They are natives of Vinnytsia region. The policeman, who died in the line of duty, managed to injure them.

🔹 The attack on police officers took place on April 20 around two in the morning. The patrolmen stopped the car to check the documents of the two men, but they started shooting. One patrolman was killed, another was wounded.

Photo: National Police

Elon Musk expressed concern about the lack of an exit strategy from the war in Ukraine

"What worries me the most is that there is no exit strategy, just an eternal war in which children die in the trenches from artillery or machine guns and snipers, in minefields," Musk said on the social network X.

- Exit strategy? That is easy: Russia is free to leave Ukraine at any time! Who else could possibly exit??

Mykhailo Podolyak, Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, emphasized the strategy: The withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory.

Podolyak, further commenting on Musk's post, said that after such posts by global influencers, "one has to wonder once again about the lack of basic logic in the modern world."

From "The Analyst":

HOW WILL AID GET TO UKRAINE?

The $60.8 billion in aid is a little more complex than it sounds. It isn’t all aid to Ukraine in strict terms. $20 billion is to replace what the US Army has taken and already donated. However that can when it comes to items like ammunition for artillery, tanks and bullets for guns, quickly be sent to Ukraine if deemed necessary, under presidential draw down authority.
The remaining $40 billion includes aid for some humanitarian purposes, troop training and payment - just as important as physical aid.
Around $35 billion is available for drawdown of existing military equipment, including M2 Bradley (which has proven to be a pain in Russia’s side), more M-1’s, more M777 artillery, more Palladins, and as many anti-aircraft missiles as the US can supply.
One of the upsides in the delay of providing aid is that there’s already a stock of missiles ready to go. One thing we do know is that ATACMS is now a legal requirement in the bill and more will flow. That could prove to be very significant.
In terms of logistics the US just announced it is sending more advisors to its Embassy in Kyiv to coordinate the secure delivery of new equipment.
Physical transfer can be very quick when it comes to ammunition. For example, the McAlester Army Ammunition Plant in Oklahoma sprawls across 45,000 acres (70 square miles) connected by rail and has a mission to surge as many as 435 shipping containers — each able to carry 15 tons (30,000 pounds) worth of munitions — if ordered by the president in a day.
Much of this will be moved by sea but a great deal will be ferried in by air using the vast military cargo fleet and contracted civilian air freight where needed.
That means ammo can be in Ukrainian hands on the front inside 24-36 hours if it’s necessary.
Allowing for the Senate to pass the bill Tuesday, the President will sign it within an hour and after that, it’s entirely down to how fast aid gets there. My understanding is priorities have been long established and there’s a preferred order for what gets delivered first and what comes later. It just needs the Senate to pass it and a presidential signature.
Finally the tide will start to turn.

Thank you to every American who made this happen.

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!

Ignorant horse, can you tell me why then the Russians destroyed 1000+ churches in Ukraine, including those of the Moscow Patriarchate?

I answer, because they don't care, they simply pursue their goal which is not connected to religion. And even if 100 churches line up in their path, they’ll bomb them and move on

As the Cheka-OGPU learned, Z-security forces detained... and released Armenian citizen A.K. Tokhyan, suspected of participation in an organized criminal community in France and wanted by the Interpol NCB.

In March, he was detained in Vnukovo by employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. The crimes charged against Tokhyan by French law enforcement officers correspond to Part 2 of Art. 210 of the Criminal Code of the ruZZian Fakeration.

In court, the prosecutor filed a motion to postpone the hearing to provide additional evidence to substantiate the request for detention; a motion was also filed to extend the time of detention of the suspect by 72 hours. The petitions were granted, but at the specified time Tokhyan was not brought to court to select a preventive measure.

As a result, the court, at the request of the prosecutor, simply terminated the proceedings, since “the failure of the specified person to appear in court is a circumstance that prevents the consideration of the investigator’s petition on the merits, and entails the termination of the proceedings on this petition.”

Funny that, isn't it? Failure to appear in court results in termination of proceedings. That's a new one, I think.

@freerussia_report

Several Z-schools celebrated the anniversary of the formation of SMERSH (Yes, they were real, not only in James Bond Films, Stalin invented the name SMERSH.) -

A number of Russian schools held lessons dedicated to the anniversary of the formation of the SMERSH structure, known for extrajudicial killings during the Second World War, the Agency noted. In Novosibirsk, children with disabilities were taken through a “dense forest” and “several checkpoints” to a closed military unit with Yars missile systems. There they were shown an operation to “neutralize mock terrorists and the weapons of SMERSH fighters,” the local TV channel GTRK said. Then the children were taken to an weapons exhibition of the “legendary SMERSH detachment - the counterintelligence elite.”

At Samara school No. 49, 7th-graders were sent on an excursion to the museum in memory of SMERSH fighter Konstantin Stychkov, and at Altai school No. 4, for the “significant date,” schoolchildren were given a “Lesson in Courage.”

@freerussia_report

Eerie renaissance - again and again

"...the Ministry of Public Education and Propaganda is responsible for all tasks of spiritual influence on the nation, for agitation in favor of the state, for influencing the domestic and foreign public."
(From Hitler's decree on the creation of the Ministry of Public Enlightenment and Propaganda)

"We do not seek the truth, but the effect."
(Joseph Goebbels, Reich Minister of Public Enlightenment and Propaganda)

“Someone will call this propaganda. But this is propaganda of the interests of your country, even if it is an aggressive imposition. Objective information does not exist.”
(Olga Skabeeva, leading propagandist in Putin's Copycat Reich)

The Ministry of Public Enlightenment and Propaganda exercised control over virtually every form of expression—radio, theatre, cinema, the fine arts, the press, churches, and schools.
The control of the schools began in March 1933 with the issuing of the first educational decree, which held that “German culture must be treated thoroughly.”

@freerussia_report

Prigozhin’s empire is suffering financial collapse. His companies are losing government contracts. - MO

Companies of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s empire are rapidly losing money after the murder of 'Putin's chef', as follows from their financial statements for 2023.

Almost all Prigozhin companies went into minus. His main brainchild, Concord Management and Consulting LLC, lost 54 million rubles (parent of the Concord company, which includes public catering enterprises, construction companies and the media). The Concord companies also went into red, losing almost 60 million.

The total loss of the companies of his son Pavel, exceeded 1 billion rubles. He owns 4 firms, the 3 for construction of apartments and residential complexes in the Lakhta area alone sum loss of 1.1 billion rubles.

The companies that fed the army are losing too. In 2022 their total profit was 4.7 billion, end of 2023 it fell to 1.4 billion. In 2024, they risk going bankrupt: the Ministry of Defeat refused their services.

A well-earned end. US militant kidnapped as a spy and killed by his dear brothers.

"Russell Bentley, aka Texas, a real American, really from Texas, died in Donetsk. He fought there for ours. He collaborated with our Sputnik," wrote chief propagandists tits-up Simonyan of course without mentioning that he was abducted by Z-soldiers, who accused him for espionage, and obviously killed him. His wife Lyudmila was informed that a DNA test confirmed a match with Russell.

According to the report of Important Stories, the deputy head of the National Guard in the so-called "DPR", Alexander Khodakovsky, called first for the guilty military to be punished for the murder of Bentley, ""We are very careful to protect our army from any discredit. So thoroughly, even to the point of sterility, completely forgetting such a concept as constructive criticism, which is supposed to make the world a better place. <... > It seems to me that our efforts on ourselves, and sometimes our bargaining with our conscience, should be rewarded with exemplary punishment for those who killed Russell Bentley. The military department must show that it is able not only to remind of responsibility for discrediting, but also to put things in order in its economy," but then deleted his post. On orders, I assume...Nonetheless the repost was preserved on the channel of the Vostok battalion.

@freerussia_report

The video was over 100 MB. No way to bring it here.

"Successful" Assault by the Russians, Donetsk region. The enemy deployed T-72B and T-62MV tanks - United24

The Ukrainian unit "Shadow" shared footage of another "successful" Russian assault on Novomykhailivka in the Donetsk region. The enemy deployed T-72B and T-62MV tanks to storm the settlement. They were accompanied by infantry on MT-LB armored personnel carriers. The vehicles were modified by adding open landing compartments.

Advancing behind the tanks, the APCs moved towards the Ukrainian positions but they encountered resistance as Ukrainian military units opened heavy artillery fire on the enemy convoy. The Russian occupiers quickly changed the course when the shelling intensified, resulting in some MT-LB armored personnel carriers colliding with each other while retreating. Ukrainian forces targeted the Russian tanks and APCs throughout the skirmish, compelling the Russian infantry to withdraw from the battlefield rapidly.

However, some occupiers tried to dig holes under the damaged armored vehicles and take up positions there.

DANGEROUS DEVELOPMENTS IN KHARKIV

I have often said how ridiculous and short term, attacking Russia over the lengthy uncontested land border in Kharkiv oblast has been. I don’t care what the excuse is, it’s been a bad strategy and done without consistency. These border incursions by supposedly free Russian forces, were inevitably going to draw a Russian reaction. The very reason Ukraine did it was the very reason they should not have, not when you are dealing with an autocratic regime.
If you embarrass or humiliate an autocrat enough, a response inevitably comes. They cannot ignore what amounts to little more than an embarrassing military distraction. It simply can’t go unanswered. You might get away with it once. Twice is pushing it. Three times and you’re going to regret it.
That time has come. Fed up with the incursions the Russians have significantly strengthened the border and begun a long range artillery and missile offensive against Kharkiv. It’s become clear to the Ukrainians they have to strengthen their defences and post more troops into the area - right at the time they can afford to do this least. They don’t have the men or artillery to reinforce this sector.
The Russians however have started to ramp up a dramatic increase in their forces.
Extensive networks of Muron-M surveillance towers have appeared. EW systems and counter battery radar, troop concentrations and all the signs of a potential attack being prepared are everywhere.
So much so, that yesterday the panicked Ukrainians decided to take the initiative with an extensive drone and artillery raid against logistics and intelligence gathering areas over the border. What they destroyed - multiple trucks, intel gathering equipment and preparations for stockpiles and assembly areas in one small sector of the front, should be enough to worry anyone.
Now let’s be clear that it could be just a ploy by the Russians to draw off Ukrainian forces, but I don’t think so.
In the last couple of days Russian recon drones have been active and Lancet FPV attack drones successfully hit Ukrainian Russian built Orugan MLRS preparing to defend Kharkiv. The intensity of their operation is growing.
The Russians see a window of opportunity and they’re going to do something before the long delayed US aid starts to arrive. Their window is short. They don’t have to commit vast resources to attack Kharkiv, just enough to engage substantial Ukrainian forces that Ukraine can ill afford to transfer from other areas. That weakens the areas they really want to take such as Chasiv Yar and it gives them a greater chance of breaking the front around Kupiansk- a long held objective.
These stupid raids over the Russian border achieved nothing but draw attention to both sides having a weak spot when only one has the resources to actually exploit it for real gain. The Russians won’t take or try to take Kharkiv, but they are vicious and destructive. If you think the signalling for this attack hasn’t been there you’d be mistaken. For weeks Russian propaganda has been talking of levelling Kharkiv, erasing it from the surface of the earth both as punishment for resisting and as a cultural and educational centre of a people they don’t consider even exist. Solovyev has been talking repeatedly about it and it’s often discussed on other shows. Nothing like that gets talked about unless the government wants it talked about. This type of signalling - to reinforce a decision that’s already been made, is how Russian propaganda works. They prepare their own people - many of whom will have strong links with a city often considered the most Russian in Ukraine, to accept what they plan to do. Destruction is their aim. Destruction and distraction. Sadly it’s looking more and more likely that what was a dead zone and an almost mutually unspoken agreement to leave this front alone, has been broken. Ukraine has itself to blame and that’s the hardest part of all. They should never have allowed those raids to draw attention to an area they were just as incapable of defending as the Russians were. I pray I am wrong here, I really do. But all the indicators for weeks suggest otherwise. I suspect this may even have been part of the briefing given to House leadership that convinced them to rush the aid package through.
Even if the Russians are creating an elaborate ruse, Ukraine has no choice but to upgrade its defences and draw off valuable manpower and material because they can’t be sure.
Such is war.

Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦!

@EveryUkraineWarVideo Subscribe

Trump trys and so does Fox. They are both outmatched by the State of New York and City of Manhattan.
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/the-big-trump-trial-jury-scare/55611/

Russian reactions to tge votes in US Congress:

◾️Peskov:

- on seizing Russian assets: "If it's really about confiscating our assets, the USA will answer for that. Moscow will take measures in accordance with our interests, no time limits."
- on aid to Ukraine: "the decision will make the USA even richer and will make Ukraine still poorer, more Ukrainians will die."

◾️ Medvedev wished civil war on the United States:
"It was the voting of joyful US bastards:
a) to continue the civil war of the separated people of our once united country;
b) to increase the number of victims of this war as much as possible.

We will, of course, win, despite the $61 billion of bloody dollars that will mostly go down the throat of their insatiable military production complex. Power and Truth are with us.

But considering the rusophobic decision that took place I can't help but wish the USA with all sincerity to dive into a new civil war themselves as quickly as possible. Which, I hope, will be very different from the war between North and South in the 19th century and will be waged using aircraft, tanks, artillery, MLRS, all types of missiles and other weapons. And which will finally lead to the inglorious collapse of the vile evil empire of the 21st century - the United States of America."

@EveryUkraineWarVideo SubscribeRussian reactions to tge votes in US Congress:

◾️Peskov:

- on seizing Russian assets: "If it's really about confiscating our assets, the USA will answer for that. Moscow will take measures in accordance with our interests, no time limits."
- on aid to Ukraine: "the decision will make the USA even richer and will make Ukraine still poorer, more Ukrainians will die."

◾️ Medvedev wished civil war on the United States:
"It was the voting of joyful US bastards:
a) to continue the civil war of the separated people of our once united country;
b) to increase the number of victims of this war as much as possible.

We will, of course, win, despite the $61 billion of bloody dollars that will mostly go down the throat of their insatiable military production complex. Power and Truth are with us.

But considering the rusophobic decision that took place I can't help but wish the USA with all sincerity to dive into a new civil war themselves as quickly as possible. Which, I hope, will be very different from the war between North and South in the 19th century and will be waged using aircraft, tanks, artillery, MLRS, all types of missiles and other weapons. And which will finally lead to the inglorious collapse of the vile evil empire of the 21st century - the United States of America."

@EveryUkraineWarVideo Subscribe

Soldiers are also up at first light
https://t.me/Ukraine_Report/21433

Soldiers are busy at night
https://t.me/Ukraine_Report/21434

https://t.me/Ukraine_Report/21435

Joyce Vance
https://open.substack.com/pub/joycevance/p/courted?r=70k1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

The week in stupid
https://open.substack.com/pub/jefftiedrich/p/this-week-in-stupid-april-20-edition?r=70k1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email