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"A Bayesian analysis showed that participants had high expectations and performed descriptively better irrespective of the AI description when a sham-AI was present. Using cognitive modeling, we could trace this advantage back to participants gathering more information."

Agnes Mercedes Kloft, Robin Welsch, Thomas Kosch, and Steeven Villa. 2024. "AI enhances our performance, I have no doubt this one will do the same": The Placebo effect is robust to negative descriptions of AI. In Proceedings of the CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems (CHI '24). Association for Computing Machinery, New York, NY, USA, Article 299, 1–24. doi.org/10.1145/3613904.364263

@science @technology

attribution: Madhav-Malhotra-003, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons. Page URL: commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fil

"I analyze Machiavelli's frequent references to hope throughout his corpus to offer an explanation of what he means by ‘hope,” examine the relation between hope and fear, and identify the benefits, dangers, and limits of these two foundational and complementary passions."

Mitchell, C.E. (2024) ‘Beyond the Politics of Fear: Machiavelli on Hope’, The Review of Politics, pp. 1–23. doi: doi.org/10.1017/S0034670524000.

@politicalscience

attribution: Peace Palace Library, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons. Page URL: commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fil

AI deception: A survey of examples, risks, and potential solutions

"Large language models and other AI systems have already learned, from their training, the ability to deceive via techniques such as manipulation, sycophancy, and cheating the safety test. AI’s increasing capabilities at deception pose serious risks, ranging from short-term risks, such as fraud and election tampering, to long-term risks, such as losing control of AI systems."

DOI: doi.org/10.1016/j.patter.2024.

@science

"Byzantine diagrams are originated by Byzantine scholars in the early modern period to use as tools for teaching and studying Aristotelian logic. This paper presents pioneering work on employing Byzantine diagrams for checking syllogistic validity through reduction."

Bhattacharjee, R. (2024) ‘Direct Reduction of Syllogisms with Byzantine Diagrams’, History and Philosophy of Logic, pp. 1–22. doi: doi.org/10.1080/01445340.2024..

@earlymodern @philosophy

"We outline some of the indirect ways in which generative AI and social media undermine the optimism, focus, creativity, and veracity required to address the climate crisis."

Hamish van der Ven, Diego Corry, Rawie Elnur, Viola Jasmine Provost, Muh Syukron; Generative AI and Social Media May Exacerbate the Climate Crisis. Global Environmental Politics 2024; doi: doi.org/10.1162/glep_a_00747

@climatecrisis @climatechange

"The ultimate goal, I suggest, was a translatio imperii; the establishment of an imperial monarchy in the west that could rival the Habsburg empire, and which in time, perhaps, might even come to imitate the universal glory of the Roman imperium. Not the American Atlantic seaboard, but rather the continent of Europe, with its arms, its learning, and its treasure, was the goal of Bacon’s early imperial vision."

Serjeantson, R. (2024) ‘Francis Bacon, colonisation, and the limits of Atlanticism’, History of European Ideas, pp. 1–14. doi: doi.org/10.1080/01916599.2024..

@histodon @histodons @earlymodern

attribution: Yale Center for British Art, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons. Page URL: commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fil

"...our data suggested that the Japanese population could be best modeled by admixtures of three ancestral components (hereafter K1 to K3). K1 to K3 were the highest in Okinawa, Northeast, and West, respectively (Fig. 1D and table S4). K1 (Okinawa) component maintains a relatively stable fraction of around 12% in Hondo subgroups, except for South (which is a region adjacent to Okinawa), with a higher proportion of 22%. K2 (Northeast) and K3 (West) components showed a cline from West to East."

Xiaoxi Liu et al., Decoding triancestral origins, archaic introgression, and natural selection in the Japanese population by whole-genome sequencing. Sci. Adv. 10, eadi8419 (2024). DOI: doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adi8419

@science

"Infant mortality rates have plummeted over the last 50 years.

Globally, they’ve fallen by over two-thirds, from around 10% in 1974 to less than 3% today.

The study’s researchers estimate that 40% of this decline is due to vaccines."

Hannah Ritchie (2024) - “Vaccines have saved 150 million children over the last 50 years” Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'ourworldindata.org/vaccines-ch' [Online Resource]

@science

🇬🇧 🇪🇺 "Our results show that individuals who lacked wealth are less likely to support leaving the EU, explaining why so many Brexit voters were wealthy, in terms of their property wealth."

Green, J. and Pahontu, R.L. (2024) ‘Mind the Gap: Why Wealthy Voters Support Brexit’, British Journal of Political Science, pp. 1–21. doi: doi.org/10.1017/S0007123423000.

@politicalscience

attribution: TeroVesalainen, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons. Page URL: commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fil

"Even though it was hoped that machines might overcome human bias, this assumption often fails due to a problematic or theoretically implausible selection of variables that are fed into the model and because of small size, low representativeness, and presence of bias in the training data [5.]."

Suchotzki, K. and Gamer, M. (2024) 'Detecting deception with artificial intelligence: promises and perils,' Trends in Cognitive Sciences [Preprint]. doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2024.04.

@science @psychology

attribution: Madhav-Malhotra-003, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons. Page URL: commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fil

"While ChatGPT-4 correlates closely with established risk stratification tools regarding mean scores, its inconsistency when presented with identical patient data on separate occasions raises concerns about its reliability."

Heston TF, Lewis LM (2024) ChatGPT provides inconsistent risk-stratification of patients with atraumatic chest pain. PLOS ONE 19(4): e0301854. doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0

@science

"Incense spheres discovered in Tang hoards, which are the earliest artefacts found to date, reveal multicultural origins upon close examination. Persian and Sogdian silversmith elements, Buddhist ideas and Syriac Christian liturgical practices, may all have left their traces on the making of the object."

Fang, F. X. (2024). Scent, Art and Astronomy: New Light on Tang Incense Spheres and Their Global Connections. The Medieval History Journal, 0(0). doi.org/10.1177/09719458231226

@histodon @histodons @medievodons

"We specifically study how a severe climate disaster, Hurricane Ian, shaped public opinion in the Republican-dominated American South. Our study focuses on attitudes in four Southern swing states, where climate-skeptic and anti-migrant politics intersect and where voters are cross-pressured by climate change and migration."

ARIAS, S.B. and BLAIR, C.W. (2024) ‘In the Eye of the Storm: Hurricanes, Climate Migration, and Climate Attitudes’, American Political Science Review, pp. 1–21. doi: doi.org/10.1017/S0003055424000

@politicalscience

"In most work in the history of science, the approach is to show how a particular event or outcome was the result of various social and intellectual influences. Bayesian history of science, on the other hand, focuses on the lines of evidence relevant to the historical development to see if the direction taken by an individual or group of scientists was consistent or inconsistent with the evidence at hand."

Henry Small; Bayesian history of science: The case of Watson and Crick and the structure of DNA. Quantitative Science Studies 2023; 4 (1): 209–228. doi: doi.org/10.1162/qss_a_00233

@science

"Our purpose is to demonstrate that the tropes usually today associated with the Corn and Poor Laws – pauperism, a clash between merchant, manufacturing and landlord interests, population and impoverishment – are absent from discussion during this period."

Lanot (Umeå), G. and Tribe (Tartu), K. (2024) ‘Before political economy: debate over grain markets, dearth and pauperism in England, 1794–96’, History of European Ideas, pp. 1–31. doi: doi.org/10.1080/01916599.2024..

@econhistory @economics

"We present a set of large pedigrees, reconstructed using ancient DNA, spanning nine generations and comprising around 300 individuals. We uncover a strict patrilineal kinship system, in which patrilocality and female exogamy were the norm and multiple reproductive partnering and levirate unions were common. The absence of consanguinity indicates that this society maintained a detailed memory of ancestry over generations."

Gnecchi-Ruscone, G.A., Rácz, Z., Samu, L. et al. Network of large pedigrees reveals social practices of Avar communities. Nature (2024). doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-073

@science @histodon @histodons

"Our study has practical implications. We show that narcissistic executives are attracted to each other and the consequences that this may have. Given the limited malleability of a personality trait such as narcissism, the primary practical implication is thus related to executive selection. This means that our research holds advice for boards that are tasked with hiring CEOs, as well as appointing TMT members."

Junge, S., Graf-Vlachy, L., Hagen, M., & Schlichte, F. (2024). Narcissism at the CEO–TMT Interface: Measuring Executive Narcissism and Testing Its Effects on TMT Composition. Journal of Management, 0(0). doi.org/10.1177/01492063241226

Climate crisis - How oil companies hushed up research results | DW Documentary

"In the 1970s, oil conglomerates commissioned research into climate change. It predicted the global warming that we’re facing today. But US oil companies hushed up these findings rather than accepting responsibility."

youtu.be/QYYxEvP4jBM

@climatechange

"All tested LLMs performed poorly on medical code querying, often generating codes conveying imprecise or fabricated information. LLMs are not appropriate for use on medical coding tasks without additional research."

Soroush, A. et al. (2024) 'Large language models are poor medical coders — benchmarking of medical code querying,' NEJM AI [Preprint]. doi.org/10.1056/aidbp2300040. @science

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