@Jack5150 You sure about that?
What sort of flaws? Not that I disagree but its important to understand peer-review is not replication, nor is it an assertion that the study is complete enough to draw conclusions from. That is left to the reader (And thus simply sharing a peer reviewed study is not enough). This doesnt represent a problem with the publisher or peer-review process. This is how it is supposed to be. It is up to the scientist reading it to be educated enough to know what weight to give it.
The study is unrelated to the image I posted, so moot point anyway. I'll find the osurce study when im back.
Huh? I will look when im at my computer but that doesnt look like the study I got the image from (nor does it contain the image). Let me find it again so we can pick it apart, give me a bit as im watching a movie right now and only on my phone.
Except these arent COVID survivors. These are people who showed they didnt have COVID on earlier PCR tests and only contracted covid after being vaccinated.
@Pat I doubt that, but with the delta variant and covid as a whole being such a new disease I'm willing to accept the facts about it may change considerably from what the evidence appears to suggest at the moment.
I can say that infection patterns in highly vaccinated countries seems highly suggestive that the vaccine is ineffective showing the hallmark pattern of first reducing cases significantly and then seeing a surge of cases that follow where an extreme majority is delta varient.
All the evidence, at least for now, strongly suggests the vaccine presents absolutely no attenuation to the spread of the virus. In fact the current data suggests it may increase the spread of the virus slightly.
There isnt enough data to make any hard assertions. But from what I can tell from the recent data this isnt related to the diminishing effectiveness vaccines present over time. That is true too, but that applies to the alpha variants and others.
In the case of delta varriant the vaccine is completely ineffective to reducing transmission even right after the vaccine is administered. No number of boosters will cause it to be effective. It has no effectiveness at reducing viral load of delta at any point.
See the attached image showing viral load of people 14 days after second dose vaccination when they get infected. Viral load is almost identical (in fact a bit higher) than unvaccinated.
It might help. And in the rare case where I will wear a mask around elderly or sick ill certainly try that. But regardless, like I said, as of the past few days I decided to no longer take steps to avoid covid outside of maybe the usual good habits of washing my hands and covering my mouth if i cough.
It isnt the physical presence of something rubbing on me that makes it extremely unpleasant. It is the uncomfortable feeling of highly humid air along with the very noticeable CO2 buildup in the air. I could never even wear the cold-weather face mask intended to keep you warm for the same reason.
Regardless of what you wish to call "eliminate" the fact of the matter is measles never comes back en-mass because we are vaccinated. We have no vaccinations that reduce the spread of delta covid so it isnt comparable. The fact that Austria and Germany "eliminated it" and now its back only proves my point, masks temporarily reduce the infection and without effective vaccines the virus will **always** resurge once mask restrictions are removed.
Dice words however you wish the fact is im not going the rest of my life wearing masks on and off. I intend to behave as COVID isnt going to dominate my life and i wont live in fear. I dont live in fear of the flu, or of cancer, or anything else and I wont live in fear of COVID. I'm ok with the risk, i wont change my life anymore.
@bii Yea, though in this case it wouldnt even be poisonous if you did drink it. Would make you puke though.
@bii perhaps, though that is usually labeled differently. I've seen ingredients on denatured products but never seen it labeled as flavor. But you could be right.
Nothing about what you said is true. You can not completely eliminate a virus from a region using respirators no matter how effective the respirators are. The only way the model works out where respirators would eliminate it from an area is if you have almost everyone wearing 24/7 (including in their own homes, while they sleep, etc), if people never touch their face, and if they do this over the course of years. None of which is practical.
The simple fact is respirators dont (and we have known this for a long time) stop virual outbreaks. They temporarily slow it, but you do not eliminate it with respirators.
The idea "if an outbreak happens they put the respirators back on"... yea thats the problem. All youll see is people wearing respirators for the rest of their lives where maybe every few months you might get a break and restrictation relax for a week or two until the outbreak resurges due to lack of respirators.
Like I said I am not living the rest of my life wearing respirators all the time out of fear of a virus. I was ok with at first, im over it.
I am also perfectly ok not getting invited to parties. I have started hosting my own parties again, and my parties are more fun and dont require masks :)
I have only really looked at the effectiveness of the vaccines available to me WRT delta variant, and none of them are effective to any degree on viral load. If novavax is somehow the exception then id be all for it if it was available.
@Pat I dont agree. I wont wear a resperator for the rest of my life to save thousands of lives. Living in fear to that extent is not a life worth living for me. Especially considering how extremely uncomfortable I find respirators to be.
> Here's a study done on the effect of respirators, without ANY vaccine at all. The conclusion, "...the epidemic could be eliminated in the USA if at least 40% of the population consistently wore respirators in public."
You are missing the point. I never disputed the fact that respirators work **while everyone is wearing them**. I conceded that fact.
What respirators dont do is eliminate the virus completely. If even a single case of the virus remains (and it will no matter how effective respirators are) then as I already said the moment everyone stops wearing respirators the virus goes right back to where it was.
Vaccines are different because you cant just stop being vaccinated. Once herd immunity is reached everyone stays vaccinated so even the rare fewcases of the virus that linger will not spread again for at least a generation.
Long story short respirators even when effective can not and do not solve the problem when there is no effective vaccine availible. As I said all resperators do suppress the problem for as long as they are worn. So its not a solution if you have to keep wearing them for the rest of your life.
@Pat Attached is the data if your curious. As you can see the vaccine significantly reduced viral load int he original COVID as the picture shows. But in the delta variant vaccines have no effect on viral load. In fact, being vaccinated causes a marginal **increase** in viral load against delta.
So yea, the science that has come out in recent weeks now that delta is 98% prevalence shows that the vaccine has absolutely no effect on the spread of the disease.
> I just gave you a viable solution. Along with the vaccines, which do mitigate infection, respirators could stop the pandemic. Stop it. Completely.
This is false. Recent studies, the best studies we have, show vaccine has no effect on the viral load of delta. so current data suggests the vaccines have no effect anymore on the spread.
Second resperators will not and never can stop it completely. It can at best reduce the incidence of the virus temporarily while we wear them and comply. Since vaccines do not slow its spread the second people stop wearing masks if there is even one remaining case then it spreads and starts all over again.
So no despite the effectiveness of respirators they can not and will not solve the problem. They only work for as long as they are worn, so they only solve the problem if we decide to wear respirators for the rest of our life, which I wont do.
You might have a chance of solving it if we had a new vaccine that was effective agaisnt delta **and** people wore respirators. But that is likely to never happen. The first vaccine failed for all the reasons I said it would before a vaccine even existed, and so will any new vaccines that use the same approach.
Despite your optimism what you offer is not a solution, and there is no solution that exists or that is in development.
@Pat Its not holding my head in the sand. Its recognizing there are no solutions on the table, zero. The vaccine doesnt work, you can wear masks till you are blue int he face and covid will immediately spike the second we stop wearing masks. There is no solution now nor is there any solution even on the horizon in development for the next year.
I am recognizing reality, COVID is here to say. The choice is live the rest of our lives in fear, in lock down, and wearing masks everywhere we go out of fear, or accepting its just one more among thousands of diseases that might kill us and get on with our lives. I plan to get on with my life.
> That strategy will never get us back to normal. The country and the economy could never handle the drag of that many deaths and disabilities.
No vaccine on the market right now has any effect on the viral load of delta variant, and thus does nothing to reduce the spread of the virus. Therefore **nothing** will make covid go away right now. You will **never** get back to normal if you are waiting for covid to go away and certainly not if you think wearing masks is going to solve it. The best you could hope for is covid incidence goes down, to some arbitrary level and the moment masks stop getting worn it goes right back to where it is.
COVID isnt going away, if that is the measure for going back to normal then might as well just give up entierly.
That said since the morbidity of delta is so low even when it is spreading rapidly I think your premise is wrong. Society could handle COVID spreading freely just fine. Yes there will be deaths just like with many diseases, but delta is entierly manageable as we have already seen from the chart I have shown.
Jeffrey Phillips Freeman
Innovator & Entrepreneur in Machine Learning, Evolutionary Computing & Big Data. Avid SCUBA diver, Open-source developer, HAM radio operator, astrophotographer, and anything nerdy.
Born and raised in Philadelphia, PA, USA, currently living in Utrecht, Netherlands, USA, and Thailand. Was also living in Israel, but left.
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