Harold Asmis @hasmis@qoto.org

3 month physics forecast
#weather #climate
Weak Pacific plumes are allowing a constant pumping of Arctic air down NorAm. In Europe, the new cold air blob continues it's relentless march as the Atlantic plumes run out of steam.

NOAA global temp plots
#weather #climate
With the Pacific cold phase firmly entrenched, we have the 1 to 5 year physics forecast as cold for the world. It is fortunate that the temperatures look flat. Looking at past cold cycles, I continue to expect that it will be dropping more.

#weather #snow #Toronto
End of my broccoli. It was producing until now.

Disorganized clippers hit North America. A cold blob heads for Europe.
#weather
Pacific plumes hitting straight north usually give clippers, which are layered cold/hot streams from the NW. Now, we just have 'clipper swirled ice cream' Europe may be at the end of their happiness as a blob is forming, but it has to fight the Atlantic plumes.

#mondog Just got the Christmas decors out with last year's dog hair all over it.

Europe is warm
#weather #climate
There are no cold air blobs coming directly down on Europe. They are coming down the Atlantic, and colliding with warm plumes from the Gulf area. This looks to be a stable pattern for a month, as the Pacific plumes are just dumping on North America. The Pacific plumes generally scoop out the Arctic air like ice cream.

Physics Weather
#weather #climate
The big blob of cold air, pushed by Pacific plumes has come to the end of its run, stopping just short of freezing the big rocket. The Pacific plumes continue to push straight North, so we can expect more of these 'air glaciers'.

#gardening
Started the pumps for the microgreens. Put in a bleach tablet for now, to help the lines. They clog up and I use a very narrow and long brush.

NASA's race against time. A cold front, gift of 'La Nina Forever'.

#weather
You can see that the Pacific plumes have hit NorAm very high, and so, we are getting clippers, which are a combination of cold and snow.

#Toronto #gardening #wine
Snow is coming and I'm setting up my microgreens. All the wine cases are in the basement. We expect a brutal winter.

Out of band forecast. I used to do a lot of computer modelling. It really is a hypothesis against future behaviour. Although I have never seen this plot published, it is an approximate line of the forecast vs. the plotted temperatures.

More explanation for me on the tumble thing. It's hit the far left now.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/08/week-in-patriarchy-nipples-tumblr-social-media

Geotechnical - Our local creek is experiencing uncontrolled erosion. Partly a fault of cutting through the last caprock.

Drone delivery. There's a big river between them that is nasty to cross.

The warm Gulf air is being pushed back by cold air. No warmth for us.

Facebook employees show up for work.

https://www.theverge.com/2018/12/6/18128267/facebook-morale-uk-parliament-emails-privacy-competition

Seal rinses with netypot. :)

Pertaining to ocean surface temps, here's a small spot over 30c. Most of the ocean has open convection and an ability to spin out plumes of warm air. This place is in the S.Pac. is rather confined.

This is hilarious.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/07/instacrammed-the-big-fib-at-the-heart-of-new-zealand-picture-perfect-peaks