S. turk develops its own mechanism It has its own right-angle fracture mechanism, like the big one, but on a smaller fractal scale. This area should have another m6 or 7 soon.

Latest Turk M6+ shows its fault zone You can see how much smaller an M6 is to near M8’s. However, the aftershocks are a straight line. If the rift walls are rigid, then we’ll get another one off to the right. Probably in a week or two, and then it should tail off.

Thrust at termination of rift This indicates a very messing ending of the rifting for the large quake. Thrusts give the highest pgv pulses with the most damage. This is a classic ‘10 years of terror’ scenario. I was expecting a large cross-fault like the upper fault to dissipate the end stresses.

M6.4 collapses more buildings This was an absolute certainty that there would be an earthquake here. Accelerometers are the best to tell how close a building is to collapse.


New earthquake where I thought there was a stress imbalance This is thrust in a rift, so I am flabbergasted. If it extends left and right, then it is what I predicted.

Rescue operations end, bulldozers take over It happens with every earthquake, the rubble must be cleared. We can only guess at the total number dead, and it will probably be over 100,000.

West Texas earthquakes get bigger they continue to inject and the earthquakes get bigger. Oklahoma was the same, but they stopped when the price of natgas tanked.

PGV from Turkey My contention with convention is that PGV has all the importance with respect to damage. You can see incredible PGV at quite a distance. The only way you can survive this is a stiff building with deep helical piles. Convention would state the use of flexible structures.

Turkey looks stable Minor aftershocks. They are clearing the rubble, and will rebuild. I hope they invest in real concrete and deep helical piles. You can only build in the flats, and that amplified 10 to 100 times. You need piles and very stiff buildings.

M6 coming for Turkey This is what I was looking for. The geology has forced it up a bit. We need at least an M6 or 7 to close it up for another 300 years.

New earthquakes extending down to the sea There is too much stress at that lower end. It should do something.

Two branches to continental earthquake I’m expecting a third, like New Madrid, but we can live with just two. It’s an amazing pattern, with both mechanisms the same. The whole area has been wrenched apart, and we await the gps and strong ground motions to see the mechanism. Usually, the existing topography will be reinforced. The lows lower and highs higher.

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