Harold Asmis @hasmis@qoto.org

#physics #weather **Calicanes now beyond Cat 4 hurricanes** Probably Cat 7. Take these hurricanes and throw them off the coast of Florida. What do you see? No hurricane planes available, they can't be given a 'Magnitude'. **They don't exist,** according to the dogma. They are just 'lazy rivers'. **La La.** And endless more are going to be formed. This is the 'ice cycle' coming to bite you. :)

#physics #weather **UK gets the big freeze** I was expecting a narrow jet down the length, but it has curved around and hit with a full broadside. The Arctic headpond (blob of cold air) is still spilling down the spill gates.
-note: with all dams there are spill gates and channels to lead flood water safely away. It is bad to overflow the dam.
--note2 - all spills are still powerful

#physics ##weather **Calicanes fill the whole Pacific** In our last episode, we were left wondering if new 'things' that cannot be named, were still being produced at the chocolate (storm) factory. It's nuanced. Looks like a new baby could form if only the big sisters got out of the way, and visited Ellen.

#physics #weather **Arctic spill hits Scotland** Within hours, the high-intensity cold air stream has pushed back the weak plume, and is starting on the UK. I was looking at these things only once a day, but everything is happening so fast right now.

#physics #weather **Formation of a storm**
Called typhoons in the Pacific, hurricanes in the Atlantic, or 'Big Ass Flooding" in California'. To get a storm, you need curl, then a cold and hot feed. On the Atlantic belt, the traditional hurricane gets its curl from 'tropical waves' which are like breaking waves from the sea. Right now, the California storms get their curl from a narrow spill of cold air slamming into a churning hot air mass. There are more to come to California, all caused by intense cold. It can only be made worse by earthquakes which can be triggered by high water tables. Although this has happened many times before (never rains but it pours), this is the first time that satellites are watching.

#physics #weather **Europe to soon freeze** That's only if the pattern of last time repeats .. most likely. The narrow, intense streams of cold air are 'spills' from the Arctic headpond of 50 below air. The spills are defined by topography. If the warm air from the tropical plume is pushed back, then UK gets the same freeze as last time. The cold air will drift over Europe. However, things change, just yesterday there was a perfect storm factory in the North Atlantic, but all the other spills have destroyed it. In about a week or so, the headpond will have drained, and start to build up again, just like those tip buckets at the splash pool.

#physics #weather **Explanation of terms that I make up** There are no common terms in a world run by influencers without physics, so I am guilty of making terms up. I don't know who else would do that...
**Cold air blob** Since 2016, the equatorial ocean belts have lost their ability to be the heat engines of the world. This has resulted in world temperatures plunging, as we go to a new ice age. However, we've got a while to go with many new phenomena. The 'cold air blob' or 'air glacier' appeared a few years ago on the MIMIC plots. This was the first 'Texas Freeze'. It is defined by a huge lobate front of clear, cold air. It descends like a glacier.
**Arctic Spill** The Arctic is a full object in physics terms. It has mass, density, and an ability to smash things. The Jet stream doesn't have any of that. This just started last year. I envision the Arctic air as being a full headpond, held in by surrounding elevation. The spills are narrow, intense outpourings of cold air, visible on the global wind charts. This year, 'Texas Freeze 2' was a spill. When all spillways are opened, the Arctic air drains in a week, and Europe has warm air again. But the headpond keeps filling.
**Intense Zones** I just made this up. Without ocean breezes (plumes) we have 'northern desert weather'. That means zones being solar furnaces. These stories keep everything going.
**Ocean plumes** Violent convection throughout the whole atmosphere stops any concept of 'greenhousing'. It ain't a greenhouse without glass. These plumes cast off from the equatorial belts and give us all our rain and heat.

#physics #weather **Big day for headlines**
The chart shows ocean temperatures. Warm water always floats to the top (unless freezing). I couldn't figure out the article.

#physics #weather **El Nino promised for this year** The influencers have written a huge article without a speck of physics. I want a long summer at the cottage this year, not a short, super-hot one.

#physics #weather **Storm factories go nuts** We now have a full Arctic spill at all points. This should last a week or two before the whole place is drained. Europe will soon get the spills, and the new baby storm in the Pacific has a rare clockwise spin.

#physics #weather **US national December plots down** NOAA has a great game to make the results not so bad. For the past few years, they have said '3rd warmest' then '4th', etc. If it got beyond 10, then they would say 'top third'. This month, it isn't even 'top half', maybe 'top 3/4'. We have to see what they say. Note that the main plot is just past Decembers because of seasonal effect.

#physics #weather **Arctic spill storm factory now starting in Atlantic** The bbc and other media keep insisting all this is just a lazy atmospheric river. Those are the pure ocean plumes without cold. They can drift forever, but when they hit mountains, they can produce rain. That's why the plumes are called 'precipitable water'.
But what we have in the Pacific are huge storms, near hurricanes, with a full feed of hot and cold. Now we are getting those hitting Europe. The storm drags in the cold feed, so the NW side is a blizzard.

#physics #weather **Pacific Storm Factory** Well, I find this fascinating, and have never seen it before. Yesterday, that storm near Japan was a baby, and now it's huge, fed by the Siberian spill. The big middle storm is now being fed by the Bering St. spill. There is no mention of the role of cold air in any of the news about these storms.

#physics #weather **All eyes on California**
My kids and grandson live on ground zero, so I am interested. The weather forecasters who can't physics themselves out of a paper bag, give a date of Jan 18 for it to end. But the power rating of the Siberian Spill looks to be increasing. Nobody is measuring it. An atmospheric plume is a benign thing unless cold air hits it. All those plumes are hooking with cold air, and forecasters can only see the pretty swirls. :) I have no estimate for it to end, perhaps the end of the month, but there's no physics to indicate that the Arctic headpoind is drawing down. Those other spills to Europe are weak.

#physics #weather **Ozone Follies**
I have no idea what the UN is talking about. I get a general impression that the ozone hole is getting bigger as things get colder. The chart is quite erratic.

#physics #weather *Large blob on the move** They finally fixed mimic again, so I can see. It is important to note the speed of the lobate blob. It's not like a spill, which is defined by the narrow laminar flow, but it was the big thing last year. At this speed, ENA will get it in a week.

#physics #weather **Europe lives in a plume paradise** They are surrounded by extreme cold, but nothing touches them. I am amazed.

#physics #weather **Give cold its due** The Siberian spill is still huge -- M9. You can see the clear blob incorporated into the ocean plume. Without the cold, these plumes can just drift forever, but the cold makes it rain.

#physics #weather **All's quiet on the cold front** It's the same as yesterday.

#physics #weather **Numerical Problem**

https://www.wired.com/story/friederike-otto-world-weather-attribution/

She says 10 times, the met says 160. Even the physics approach predicts more big heatwaves. As the oceans shut down, the plumes become too weak to clear 'solar furnace' heat waves. Super-hot, but short summers, like the 70's