I have a record of several hundred events. Each event occurred at a particular univariate condition x and had a binary outcome y. I don't get to choose x; there are about a hundred values that occurred exactly once, up to a maximum number of fourteen repetitions at one value of x (to measurement precision). The samples are roughly clustered around a central value of x, not uniformly distributed.
Is there a recommended way to estimate the local probability of y as a function of x (that is, if I measure the conditions as x=X, how likely is it that y will occur)? Simply averaging all samples at x=X doesn't give a usable curve, because all the single-sample values swing it wildly to zero or one, regardless of what any neighbouring samples have done. Currently what I'm doing is summing the averages over all samples where x<=X and the average over all samples where x>=X, then subtracting the average over all x. It looks more or less like the smooth curve predicted by theory but I'm pretty sure this counts as "misuse of statistics".
I'm especially interested in identifying regions (intervals on x) where I can say the observed probability differs from the prediction of theory by a statistically significant amount. I think coming up with a formula for a confidence interval would be the way to go, but feel free to point me in another direction.
Gallery of interactive fluid simulations. They are configured with plain text, run in the browser, and can be easily shared
#CFD #WebAssembly #fluiddynamics
Another example of the problem of steaming audio pitch being shifted to an extremely low frequency from a completely different web source than my previous post. (I actually found several streaming sites that did this.)
Solution: The user agent in my browser had been changed to identify it as Win 7, Chrome. My browser is actually FireFox, Linux. (I had changed it in an attempt to get a misbehaving website to work and forgot to change it back.) The sites probably assumed I was using a different player or they used an incorrect audio codec.
(posted as plain text toot with attached image)
<video width="560" height="315" controls> <source src="https://video.qoto.org/videos/embed/bfaebe57-4be7-4113-872b-09e9c4dc3c07" type="video/mp4">
<source src="https://video.qoto.org/videos/embed/bfaebe57-4be7-4113-872b-09e9c4dc3c07" type="video/ogg">
<iframe width="560" height="315" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-scripts" src="https://video.qoto.org/videos/embed/bfaebe57-4be7-4113-872b-09e9c4dc3c07" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
I see that #QOTO now has 14,000 users! Thanks to everyone who's decided to become a part of our community :-)
Here’s a tool I put together this evening.
Sometimes I’m on a #Zoom call and need to unmute my mic quickly. There’s a keystroke for this (by default Alt-A), but this only works if Zoom has focus. It’s not uncommon for me to have switched to the PDF or email we’re discussing, so I have to dig up Zoom before I can unmute and chime in, often missing the conversational opportunity.
I wrote a script that:
I bound it to the keystroke Control-Alt-A in my desktop environment, so I can easily toggle the mute no matter what application has focus.
PASOPS=$(pactl list source-outputs)
if echo "$PASOPS" | grep -q 'ZOOM VoiceEngine' ; then
SOPID=$(echo "$PASOPS" | head -n $(($(echo "$PASOPS" | grep -n -e 'application.name = "ZOOM VoiceEngine"' | cut -f1 -d:) - 1)) - | grep -o -e 'Source Output #[0-9]\+' | grep -o -e '[0-9]\+' | tail -n 1);
pactl set-source-output-mute $SOPID toggle; fi
Tip for anyone composing in #Frescobaldi:
If you want to use MIDI input but get errors about an "invalid running status" when you attach a physical MIDI instrument, your instrument or interface may be generating SysEx messages that Frescobaldi can't understand. To work around this, you can use an app like #VMPK - in VMPK's "Connections" menu, set the input to your MIDI hardware; and in Frescobaldi's "Preferences" dialogue, set the input to VMPK. This makes your instrument change the internal state of VMPK's keyboard, and VMPK then generates appropriate MIDI events reflecting those changes. Since it's tolerant of SysEx messages in its input but won't generate them in its output, this effectively filters the stream to make it safe for Frescobaldi to consume.
As a bonus, you can see the keys light up on the VMPK interface to reflect the notes currently sounding, which may be more intuitive than reading the #Lilypond source Frescobaldi generates. If you also set something like #FluidSynth as the output in the "Connections" menu, you'll be able to hear what you're playing, too.
Lots of celebratory gunfire mixed in with the fireworks this year. I'm sandwiched between office buildings to the east and a pretty expensive residential area to the west, so I wouldn't have expected that much shooting around here. But I'd guess I've heard upwards of a hundred rounds fired just now, maybe two hundred.
Working around Twitter in 2020, a play in two acts.
My browser: Hi, #Twitter! I’m #PaleMoon.
Twitter: We don’t like you, so we’re going to pop up a modal warning on every page you request to force you into retirement.
My browser: That’s okay, I can suppress the warning with #uBlockOrigin.
My browser: Hi, Twitter! I’m Pale Moon.
Twitter: Seriously, how are you still here? Every page is now an error page advertising browsers we like.
My browser: Wait, that’s it? I can’t just suppress the warning to show the webpage behind it?
Twitter: No. And if you pretend to be a supported browser, we’ll serve you content that you can’t display correctly and it’ll look stupid.
My browser: The hell? You’re just a microblogging service. Your roots are in SMS messages, for crying out loud. Why on earth can you not make do with normal #HTML?
Twitter: This is 2020; who would want a normal HTML webpage anyway?
My browser: Hmm, who would want normal HTML, you say?
puts on false moustache
Hi, Twitter! I’m Googlebot!
@dragfyre Just want to bring to your attention that the IRC bots (SubWatch and BahaiFYIBot) seem to have disappeared from the channel. If you're already aware of this, please disregard.
@dragfyre Hey bahaibot on reddit is all of a sudden posting a lot of biographies to the history subreddit. Looks like it's been going off pretty close to every ten minutes for the last hour. I have a guess you might run that bot too - is this the intended behaviour?
Hey @freemo the web interface looks to have changed recently. The "read more" link used to expand a long status in-place; now it just loads it in the rightmost column. Any way to bring back the old behaviour? If I want to load a status in the rightmost column, I'll click the body text itself. If it matters, I'm using the material theme.
QOTO: Question Others to Teach Ourselves. A STEM-oriented instance.
An inclusive free speech instance.
All cultures and opinions welcome.
Explicit hate speech and harassment strictly forbidden.
We federate with all servers: we don't block any servers.