Anyone with a background:

I have a record of several hundred events. Each event occurred at a particular univariate condition x and had a binary outcome y. I don't get to choose x; there are about a hundred values that occurred exactly once, up to a maximum number of fourteen repetitions at one value of x (to measurement precision). The samples are roughly clustered around a central value of x, not uniformly distributed.

Is there a recommended way to estimate the local probability of y as a function of x (that is, if I measure the conditions as x=X, how likely is it that y will occur)? Simply averaging all samples at x=X doesn't give a usable curve, because all the single-sample values swing it wildly to zero or one, regardless of what any neighbouring samples have done. Currently what I'm doing is summing the averages over all samples where x<=X and the average over all samples where x>=X, then subtracting the average over all x. It looks more or less like the smooth curve predicted by theory but I'm pretty sure this counts as "misuse of statistics".

I'm especially interested in identifying regions (intervals on x) where I can say the observed probability differs from the prediction of theory by a statistically significant amount. I think coming up with a formula for a confidence interval would be the way to go, but feel free to point me in another direction.

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github.com/cselab/aphros/wiki/
Gallery of interactive fluid simulations. They are configured with plain text, run in the browser, and can be easily shared

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Definitely mastodon is less panic than twitter

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Another example of the problem of steaming audio pitch being shifted to an extremely low frequency from a completely different web source than my previous post. (I actually found several streaming sites that did this.)

Solution: The user agent in my browser had been changed to identify it as Win 7, Chrome. My browser is actually FireFox, Linux. (I had changed it in an attempt to get a misbehaving website to work and forgot to change it back.) The sites probably assumed I was using a different player or they used an incorrect audio codec.


(posted as plain text toot with attached image)

video controls:
<video width="560" height="315" controls> <source src="video.qoto.org/videos/embed/bf" type="video/mp4">
<source src="video.qoto.org/videos/embed/bf" type="video/ogg">
</video>

iframe embed:
<iframe width="560" height="315" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-scripts" src="video.qoto.org/videos/embed/bf" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

naked video url:
video.qoto.org/videos/watch/bf

I see that now has 14,000 users! Thanks to everyone who's decided to become a part of our community :-)

Which of these is the past tense of the verb "shine", as you would use it in your variety of English? If you would use different forms for the past tense and the past participle, spoken and written communication, or formal and informal contexts, please leave a comment.

Is there a trick to code blocks (the ``` ... ``` environment) in the flavour of we use here on ? Line breaks keep disappearing in mine.

Here’s a tool I put together this evening.

The Problem
Sometimes I’m on a call and need to unmute my mic quickly. There’s a keystroke for this (by default Alt-A), but this only works if Zoom has focus. It’s not uncommon for me to have switched to the PDF or email we’re discussing, so I have to dig up Zoom before I can unmute and chime in, often missing the conversational opportunity.

The Solution
I wrote a script that:

  1. checks if any audio streams are going into Zoom, otherwise quits
  2. finds the numerical ID of the audio stream going into Zoom
  3. toggles the mute flag on said audio stream

I bound it to the keystroke Control-Alt-A in my desktop environment, so I can easily toggle the mute no matter what application has focus.

The Dependencies
This is written in for systems using and depends on its control tool pactl being installed.

The Code

#!/bin/bash
PASOPS=$(pactl list source-outputs)
if echo "$PASOPS" | grep -q 'ZOOM VoiceEngine' ; then
	SOPID=$(echo "$PASOPS" | head -n $(($(echo "$PASOPS" | grep -n -e 'application.name = "ZOOM VoiceEngine"' | cut -f1 -d:) - 1)) - | grep -o -e 'Source Output #[0-9]\+' | grep -o -e '[0-9]\+' | tail -n 1);
	pactl set-source-output-mute $SOPID toggle; fi

Tip for anyone composing in :

If you want to use MIDI input but get errors about an "invalid running status" when you attach a physical MIDI instrument, your instrument or interface may be generating SysEx messages that Frescobaldi can't understand. To work around this, you can use an app like - in VMPK's "Connections" menu, set the input to your MIDI hardware; and in Frescobaldi's "Preferences" dialogue, set the input to VMPK. This makes your instrument change the internal state of VMPK's keyboard, and VMPK then generates appropriate MIDI events reflecting those changes. Since it's tolerant of SysEx messages in its input but won't generate them in its output, this effectively filters the stream to make it safe for Frescobaldi to consume.

As a bonus, you can see the keys light up on the VMPK interface to reflect the notes currently sounding, which may be more intuitive than reading the source Frescobaldi generates. If you also set something like as the output in the "Connections" menu, you'll be able to hear what you're playing, too.

Lots of celebratory gunfire mixed in with the fireworks this year. I'm sandwiched between office buildings to the east and a pretty expensive residential area to the west, so I wouldn't have expected that much shooting around here. But I'd guess I've heard upwards of a hundred rounds fired just now, maybe two hundred.

Working around Twitter in 2020, a play in two acts.

Summer 2020
My browser: Hi, ! I’m .
Twitter: We don’t like you, so we’re going to pop up a modal warning on every page you request to force you into retirement.
My browser: That’s okay, I can suppress the warning with .

This week
My browser: Hi, Twitter! I’m Pale Moon.
Twitter: Seriously, how are you still here? Every page is now an error page advertising browsers we like.
My browser: Wait, that’s it? I can’t just suppress the warning to show the webpage behind it?
Twitter: No. And if you pretend to be a supported browser, we’ll serve you content that you can’t display correctly and it’ll look stupid.
My browser: The hell? You’re just a microblogging service. Your roots are in SMS messages, for crying out loud. Why on earth can you not make do with normal ?
Twitter: This is 2020; who would want a normal HTML webpage anyway?
My browser: Hmm, who would want normal HTML, you say?
puts on false moustache
Hi, Twitter! I’m Googlebot!

Friends, today was the anniversary of the Polytechnique attack. Please take a moment to consider the obstacles still faced by women and minority STEM students in many parts of the world, and, if you can, lend your support as they confront those obstacles.

@freemo I'm pleased to say that my IRL friend @Peyman_majidi has just joined QOTO. I recommended he check out our instance on the basis of his engineering background and interest in data science.

@Peyman_majidi I hope you have great conversations here - in particular with @freemo, the administrator of the site as well as a data scientist himself. Welcome!

Every day @users posts some reports similar to this one - here are some annotations to help you understand why they have the shape they do.

tagging @freemo since he's mentioned in the image

@dragfyre Just want to bring to your attention that the IRC bots (SubWatch and BahaiFYIBot) seem to have disappeared from the channel. If you're already aware of this, please disregard.

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The story of the first girls' schools in #Iran, which began operating at the turn of the 20th century at the behest of #Bahai spiritual leader 'Abdu'l-Baha.

"...the higher access for #women's #education observed in today's Iran is the result of that #development effort made more than a century ago."

youtube.com/watch?v=Buow34lQiE

@dragfyre Hey bahaibot on reddit is all of a sudden posting a lot of biographies to the history subreddit. Looks like it's been going off pretty close to every ten minutes for the last hour. I have a guess you might run that bot too - is this the intended behaviour?

Hey @freemo the web interface looks to have changed recently. The "read more" link used to expand a long status in-place; now it just loads it in the rightmost column. Any way to bring back the old behaviour? If I want to load a status in the rightmost column, I'll click the body text itself. If it matters, I'm using the material theme.

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