歐盟的大象緩緩轉身(?
"這份報告大致上比以往又更貼近了美國對中國的看法，可望為 6 月將舉行的美、歐高峰會先行定調，從報告中亦可看出科技與貿易將會是施壓中國做出改革承諾的重點領域，而歐盟可能採取包括加強審查、違規罰款、剔除在公共採購名單之外等手段做為施壓的工具。"
https://www.pourquoi.tw/2021/05/03/intlnews-euaf-210426-210502-5/
國家資本的補貼始終是美國歐盟對中國不照規矩玩貿易公平競爭的最大詬病:
"The U.S. and nations in Europe and elsewhere also subsidize their own industries, often through tax breaks, export financing and research-and-development funding. What makes China different is the outsize role state-controlled companies play in its economy, and its willingness to support their expansion abroad."
"The U.S. and Europe have long relied on the World Trade Organization and tariffs to penalize China for subsidizing exports with grants, tax breaks and credit from state-owned banks, measures that helped the country grow rapidly. But the WTO rules weren’t written to constrain subsidies that a government gives to its manufacturers overseas.
The result: Chinese-owned factories outside of China usually face lower tariffs than those imposed on factories inside the country—or escape them altogether."
中國A股半導體業有一成沒政府補貼就要虧損了:
"報導指出，A股120家半導體企業中，除了四圖維新外，其餘119家去年獲得中國政府149.11億元補貼，平均每家公司獲得1.24億元補貼；去年上述120家半導體企業合計淨利達570億元，政府補貼佔合計淨利的26.1%。"
"報導說，有16家A股半導體企業若無中國政府補貼則會出現虧損。"
WSJ這篇指出的美方認為中國重點補貼如鋼鐵、汽車零件、太陽能板等產業在關稅調降的可能性恐怕不太樂觀:
"As part of the China review, USTR doesn’t plan a wholesale reduction in tariffs on more than half of Chinese imports which were imposed during the Trump years, according to the people familiar with its planning.
Instead, the USTR has been conducting exercises to see which tariffs are hurting the U.S. economy or could substantially raise the costs of other parts of the Biden agenda, these people said, particularly the president’s plans to invest hundreds of billions of dollars into new U.S. infrastructure."
法律先行鋪軌，以後再照軌前行~
"經貿辦說，此次會議依據先前雙方共同公布的談判架構及內容，雙方團隊首次實體見面，討論議題相當廣泛，主要著重在雙方就各自整體法制面的異同，以及維護對雙方企業有利經營環境的政策作法等交換意見。"
中國現況是否禁得起三零一和美國是否真會動用三零一都令人存疑:
"為重新校准美國對中貿易政策，以捍衛國內勞工、企業、農民及製造業者，強化中產階級，戴琪宣布，她將與中方對口就第一階段貿易協議的落實進行討論，並展開關稅排除流程，確保現行架構符合美國經濟利益。
此外，戴琪指出，在確保北京履行貿易協議的同時，美國會持續對中國以國家為中心、非市場貿易行徑表達關切。美方會動用所有現行工具並依據需求發展新工具，以保衛美國經濟利益不受有害政策與行徑影響。"
財經網美說的一年期中國出口美國半數關稅項目豁免的說法在WSJ找不到相關佐證，莫非中文媒體都是從"將繼續維持半數川政權懲罰性關稅"來推導出"有半數關稅豁免"這個結論嗎? 目前先找到所謂美企申請關稅豁免程序這部分的佐證:
"At the same time, she said, the U.S. will reopen a process for U.S. companies to seek exemptions from tariffs. That exemption process ended after President Biden took office, drawing complaints from manufacturers and others who say they have no cost-effective alternatives to certain Chinese components."
沒想到罐裝食品也會面臨關稅考驗...
"Chinese products would be subject to the highest tariffs of the three countries—a levy of 122.52% of their import value. That rate partly reflects Chinese companies’ refusal to cooperate with the investigation to prove their independence from the Chinese Communist Party, an administration official said."
"At the same time, the officials cleared five other trading partners—the Netherlands, South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey and the U.K.—of dumping allegations, narrowing the scope of the products covered by new tariffs."
"假如荷法德接受美國的請求而參與軍事行動，將會面對各種來自中國的威脅，因為中國必然視封鎖麻六甲海峽為戰爭行為，會對此採取報復行動，例如對歐洲的港口和天然氣設施展開猛烈的網路攻擊，會採取行動報復中國境內的歐洲人。此外中國在吉布地設有陸軍基地，而吉布地扼紅海與亞丁灣出入口，歐洲的船艦要從地中海經蘇彞士運河進入印度洋，勢必由此經過，屆時是否將會遭到中國人民解放軍的砲火攻擊？"
https://www.pourquoi.tw/2021/11/01/intlnews-euaf-211025-211031-2/
美歐針對中國議題與印太議題的第四次會談內容關於台海部分老調重彈，但在確認軍事與經濟合作的結盟項目上有較實質進展:
"They reaffirmed the importance of U.S. and EU efforts on regional connectivity, notably in the framework of the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) and the EU’s Global Gateway. They reviewed opportunities for cooperation and synergies offered by the U.S.-EU shared support to regional cross-border initiatives and committed to build on recent discussions on electricity market integration in South Asia and on port security across the Indo-Pacific. They welcomed the recently signed memorandum of understanding between the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and the European Investment Bank (EIB), which will facilitate strategic investments including in the Indo-Pacific.
They welcomed the success of the first joint U.S.-EU naval exercise, conducted in March 2023. They intend to take new steps to advance practical maritime cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region, including facilitating the EU’s involvement and participation in INDOPACOM’s naval exercises and planning conferences in the region. Given their shared commitment to enhancing maritime domain awareness in the Indo-Pacific, they also intend to establish further technical exchanges in this area, including on ways to ensure maximum complementarity between the U.S. SeaVision and the EU-funded IORIS systems."
終於！⋯
“週四的議案也對「歐盟理事會在採取措施，應對香港民主的壓制上缺乏團結表達深切遺憾」，同時敦促會員國中止與中國的引渡條約，加快擬定計畫，禁止疑似使用新疆強迫勞動的產品進口。
該案也呼籲在歐盟制裁架構下採取「額外的針對性措施」，「妥當因應中國的網路安全威脅、混合攻擊以及軍民融合項目」。”
歐洲議會此次回應中國反制裁的完整文本, 僅摘要掐到實處的一點:
"Underlines the need to set up a system to check whether entities operating on the EU internal market are directly or indirectly involved in human rights abuses in Xinjiang and to introduce trade-related measures such as exclusion from public procurement and other sanctions; insists that the procurement of exploitative technology which is deployed in situations of violations of human rights should be prevented in the EU at all levels and in all EU institutions; "
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2021-0255_EN.html
難得看到DW刊一篇允稱持平的評論，中段還放了八頁橫幅介紹被中國反制裁的對象。
「冻结《欧中投资协议》大大提高了中国今后技术竞争的难度。 中方所需的高科技产品有40%都来自于欧洲。」
「中国最高层跟德国、法国、意大利高层的电话，体现了中方过于热衷于“一把手“的交流，而无视其他政策决定的因素。正是这样，中方才会把决议案看成是欧洲议会几个人的操纵。 」
「北京的“超级别“的报复性制裁，非但没把欧盟吓到，反而帮助欧洲议会统一了政治立场。」
“Wang Yi basically tells us ‘shut up, you shouldn’t talk’.
“The Holocaust should not be used as a diplomatic football for rhetorical gains,”
“The fact of the matter is that it has been precisely because of our wretched history that we have built our democracies and European Union on the basis of adherence to human rights and the rule of law. For us it is an historic obligation.
“If this People’s Republic of China had nothing to hide, they would open up and allow a full independent investigation; no amount of aggressive wolf-warrior diplomacy will obscure the fact that they still have not done so,”
用面子大於肚子的反制裁法擋住香港這扇經濟旋轉門意味著失去更多工作機會與資本的風險。
[ The law could have far-reaching effects if it applies to supply-chain issues—particularly those related to the sensitive region of Xinjiang, where cotton and other industries have faced allegations of forced labor, Mr. Kostrzewa said.
The mainland law mandates that Beijing respond with countermeasures against the entities or people involved in imposing foreign sanctions. Those countermeasures include denying or revoking visas, seizing and freezing assets within China, blocking transactions or cooperation with Chinese entities, along with “other necessary measures” that aren’t specified. The law also allows Chinese companies to file lawsuits in Chinese courts against foreign business partners who cut ties to comply with foreign sanctions. ]
歐洲議會第二彈:
"歐洲議會表示，香港蘋果日報被迫關閉、資產遭凍結、記者被逮捕，是中國當局「瓦解香港自由社會、剝奪當地媒體自由和言論自由」的又一步。決議案呼籲香港政府停止騷擾、恫嚇記者，釋放遭任意監禁者，並且摒棄任何箝制支持民主運動和民主運動者的企圖，力促中國政府廢除香港國安法，也鼓勵歐盟成員國對要為嚴重侵犯香港人權、國際法負有責任的個人、實體實施制裁。
決議呼籲歐盟執委會、歐洲理事會和歐盟國家，拒絕受邀派政府代表、外交官出席二○二二年北京冬奧，除非中國政府在香港、新疆維吾爾族人地區、西藏、內蒙以及中國其他地方的人權狀況，展現「可被驗證的改進」。"
歐盟想戰略自主就得先提高北約的協防能力，減少仰賴美軍的比例，單在這點上能否取得共識就值得懷疑，美國秩序在本世紀要盟友提高付費的傾向正提漸提高，要像以前那樣搭廉價便車已不太容易了~
"法國總統馬克宏（Emmanuel Macron）在美國前總統川普（Donald Trump）時代推動歐盟安全政策「戰略自主」以減少倚賴美國，此次阿富汗淪陷，歐洲再度掀起不能過度仰賴華府的呼聲，但歐洲在防務上仰仗美國大量軍事投資，未來如何走出一條穩定跨大西洋關係但又能符合歐洲利益的道路受到矚目。
在對外謀求「戰略自主」課題之外，阿富汗快速變天讓歐洲更頭痛的問題是如何避免2015年敘利亞難民危機重演，當時梅克爾廣納難民，卻引發融入社會不良、甚至恐怖攻擊等問題讓許多德國人不滿，導致梅克爾領導的政黨支持率下滑。"
歐盟議會第三彈：
“Parliament insists that any change to mainland China-Taiwan cross-strait relations must be neither unilateral nor against the will of Taiwanese citizens. It also issues a stark reminder of the direct connection between European prosperity and Asian security and of the consequences for Europe if a conflict were to expand beyond economic issues.”
歐洲議會官方代表團終於來訪啦~
"The delegation, led by French Member of the European Parliament Raphael Glucksmann, will discuss complex threats including disinformation and cyber attacks with Taiwan officials, the ministry added.
The three-day visit was organised by a European Parliament committee on foreign interference such as disinformation in democratic processes."
希望能實現~
"該決議的第三個部分最為務實，對歐盟提出強化對台經貿關係的具體建議。歐盟應以展開對台貿易談判、簽署自由貿易協定為最終目標。歐盟的汽車產業正面臨車用半導體晶片短缺的問題，而歐盟希望能夠發展本土的半導體製造能力，在 2030 年將產能從 9% 增加到 20%。由於台灣是世界上最先進的半導體製造公司的所在地，布魯塞爾希望吸引台積電投資歐盟，這一點沒有台灣的協助恐怕很難辦到。善學提到，事實上類似的聲音在美國出現多年，且獲得兩黨的支持，卻遲遲沒有進展，也許當前的局勢能夠促使布魯塞爾加快腳步。歐盟的最終目標是跟台灣談判並簽署自由貿易協定。"
https://www.pourquoi.tw/2021/11/08/intlnews-euaf-211101-211107-2/
合縱連橫的連鎖反應:
"過去北約組織認定的頭號威脅是俄羅斯，因此對於美國所主導的印太政策興趣缺缺，特別是中國龐大的市場，更讓歐洲國家不願意在中國問題上表態。但是中國與俄羅斯的聯手，說明了一件事，那就是俄羅斯對歐洲的威脅與中國對亞洲的威脅，是同一件事。中、俄兩國已互為犄角，利用同時出兵恫嚇，制造戰爭危機的方式，來逼迫美國與其盟邦。中國在亞洲的所做所為，正牽動整個世界局勢，歐洲國家已無法置身事外。
換句話說，未來如果中國能在亞洲牽制更多的美軍部隊，讓美國與其盟邦必需花費更大的心力來扼止中國，那俄羅斯就會更有空間來威脅歐洲。這對北約組織來說，並不是正向的發展。在這樣的情況下，未來歐洲國家可能會比較積極加入美國的反中圍堵網。因為削弱中國，就等於是剪除俄羅斯的側翼盟友。過去歐洲各國政府無視於中國勢力擴張的情況，可能會有所改變，最少會受到國內輿論或在野黨的強力批評，而讓執政黨更謹慎行事。"
印度用中國也有買的俄國地對空飛彈在俄中之間埋下猜忌, 很划算~😆
"While the U.S. is ultimately expected to waive sanctions over India’s S-400 purchase, it has urged India not to go ahead with the deal, warning that it could jeopardize future military cooperation with the U.S.
India says it reserves the right to choose its own arms suppliers and needs the S-400 to boost defenses on the border with China, which last year saw one of the bloodiest clashes since a brief border war in 1962."
烏俄開戰以來的全球武器交易新局勢:
"SIPRI最新報告指出，烏克蘭過去並不是國際武器貿易的主要參與者，烏克蘭大部分軍備都是本土製造以及蘇聯時代遺留產物，而在最新報告中，烏克蘭在2018年至2022年的全球軍武進口國中排名第14名，佔全球武器進口量的2％。若只單看2022年，烏克蘭則是在全球軍武進口國中排在第3名，僅次於卡達與印度。
報告中提到，美國依舊是全球最大武器出口國，其次依序為俄羅斯、法國、中國及德國，美國武器出口量較上個統計年度增長14％，佔全球武器出口量的40％；法國在上個統計年度佔全球武器出口量7.1％，但此次卻上升至11％，漲幅達44％。韋斯曼認為，法國武器出口量的變化屬於結構性變化，法國政府非常重視軍工產業，在過去10年內已取得顯著成果。
另外，俄羅斯在全球武器出口量部分從22％降到16％。報告指出，入侵烏克蘭很可能會進一步限制俄羅斯的武器出口，加上俄羅斯將武器優先供應其武裝部隊，各國對俄羅斯的貿易制裁、來自美國與其盟國不買俄製武器的壓力也越來越大。"
如美澳這樣的盟友間武器交易依然備受限制:
"One challenge to further integration between U.S. and allied militaries are U.S. rules, called International Traffic in Arms Regulations, that control the export of defense and military technologies, and which some people in the defense industry say make it difficult for close U.S. allies to get the most advanced U.S. weapons and equipment."
歐洲和平太久的現況:
"根據英國《金融時報》報導，由於炸藥短缺、生產能力無法提高，將阻礙援烏彈藥供應。有德國官員透露，目前的根本問題在於，歐洲國防工業不適合大規模戰爭生產。歐盟官員、製造商均警告，需求增加只會將製造成本持續往上拉高。
斯洛伐克軍工企業MSM集團旗下的西班牙火砲製造商「Fábrica Municiones de Granada」（FMG）自從去年10月以來，砲彈生產線持續全開，FMG總幹事卡羅（Antonio Caro）表示，目前主要問題是原料短缺，歐洲沒有太多生產火藥原料的工廠，現在必須從印度、南韓或其他國家尋找貨源。基礎材料的成本翻了一倍，在某些情況下甚至漲3倍，成本增長、需求激增，最後導致彈藥價格上漲。"
多邊角力的複雜權衡:
"中方推動停戰的舉措，凸顯習近平不再試圖將中國塑造成中立國，而是尋求扮演更顯著的角色。隨著俄國幾乎派出所有地面部隊、戰事卻仍裹足不前，中方也更加重視自身在化解危機上所能發揮的作用。據了解，智庫「蘭德公司」上個月一份題為「如何避免長期戰爭」的政策報告，獲得許多中國外交政策權威重視，其中直接挑明，戰事愈拖延，俄國就愈可能與北大西洋公約組織（NATO）衝突。"
歐盟現在成了想兼得熊掌的中國意圖抓住的魚:
"The prospect of the two great autocratic powers that dominate the Eurasian landmass moving closer together carries risks for Beijing. It would probably force European countries that now are hoping to maintain close commercial ties with China to move more decisively toward Washington, on which they depend for security. If that happened, geopolitical competition between the West (along with Asian democracies such as Japan and South Korea) and the Moscow-Beijing axis would solidify."
狐假虎威的前提是虎夠強大, 一旦虎威不再, 狐狸也無勢可假:
"Beijing’s new public stance is partly intended to counter growing distrust toward China in the Western world and the formation of geopolitical blocs around security and technology, the people said. China is also worried that Russia, a key partner in its increased competition with the West, could be significantly weakened if it were to face further significant setbacks or defeat in Ukraine."
接下來的維尼訪俄之行將會是歐美聯盟觀察重點:
"The Chinese arms trade is shrouded in secrecy, and it is unclear what weapons Russia might receive. China is a world leader in the production of weapons that have been used heavily in the Ukraine war, including long-range artillery systems, precision multiple rocket launchers, antitank and surface-to-surface missiles and small, tactical drones and loitering munitions."
目前看來, 老虎尚未打算賣狐狸面子, 可能在等狐狸頭親自出馬再賞臉吧:
"However, a fiery speech by Mr. Putin on Tuesday illustrated the stiff challenges to any Chinese peace initiative, which has already drawn skepticism from European countries due to the support Beijing has extended to Moscow since the start of the war. Mr. Putin also said Moscow would step back from New Start, the last remaining major nuclear-arms-control treaty between the U.S. and Russia."
對德籍官員發言不意外, 歐盟這尾魚就繼續混吧:
"美國、加拿大在維持「一中政策」之下與台灣洽簽經貿協定，但歐盟仍拒絕，顯然執委會官員更在乎與台灣關係深化會成為歐盟與中國恢復往來的變數。"
看來是歐中各自表述了:
"馬克宏和馮德萊恩另外與習近平舉行三邊會談，以及馮德萊恩、習近平雙邊會談。馮德萊恩會後表示，她警告中國領導人不要提供俄國武器，也提出台灣問題，表示「我們都同意台海穩定具有最高重要性，維持台海穩定、和平與現狀，對我們有非常明確的利益。因此，沒有人應片面以武力改變這個區域的現狀」，「使用或威脅使用武力改變現狀無法令人接受，透過對話解決可能發生的緊張很重要。」新華社報導，習近平表示台灣問題是中國「核心利益中的核心」，不要指望中國會妥協退讓。"
歐盟執委會的戰略立場總算比較清楚了:
"But we must also recognise that China's views on the “global security architecture” are not by default aligned with ours. This is clear when we look at the situation in the Indo-Pacific. China's assertive posture in Taiwan, the South and East China Seas affects not only our partners, such as the Philippines, but our own global interests. Our own supply chains and trade routes are at stake. And we have to be very frank on this, as a foundation for a constructive relationship."
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_23_5851
2023算是歐盟對中關係的轉折點吧?
"她說明去風險化戰略的三個支柱，一是防護歐盟的經濟利益，因此她開啟對中國電動車出口到歐洲的反傾銷調查；二是與中國對話、闡明雙方歧異，因此12月的高峰會她將以貿易公平為核心主題；三是分散布局到其他夥伴國家，因此歐盟的「全球門戶」（Global Gateway）計畫將使經濟夥伴關係的建立更具地緣政治性。
馮德萊恩「導正中國」另一重點則針對中國的外交和軍事姿態。她說中國正尋求一個以中國為中心且階級化的全球秩序，貶低國際規則，與歐盟的利益和價值相左。"
歐盟的轉向慢吞吞來到表態:
"報導說，該戰略草案闡明歐盟與相關國家合作的政策，以應對與不斷強化其霸權活動的中國升高緊張。該草案說，「台海危機加劇，明確顯示與夥伴國家共同合作的必要性，以遏阻現狀遭破壞，才能符合各方利益」。這是歐盟首度在公開的戰略文件中，明確表達將與夥伴國家合作，以因應台海爆發緊急事件。該文件說，「歐盟必須為緊張急遽上升的局面做好準備」。
這份草案由歐盟對外事務部（EEAS）在十二、十三日於瑞典斯德哥爾摩的歐盟外長會議中，向成員國分發。歐盟將在六月高峰會中採納該修正版戰略，做為廿七個成員國各自中國政策的基礎。"
台灣半導體業還是放生歐盟吧!
"俄烏戰爭爆發，中國沒有譴責俄羅斯，甚至宣稱雙方關係無上限，有 70% 以上的歐洲人也認為俄羅斯與中國是緊密夥伴關係。然而，歐洲人卻將俄羅斯與中國分開來看，相較有 49% 將近 5 成的人認為俄羅斯是風險，但只有 21% 認為中國是風險，風險利益參半為 35%，甚至有 28% 認為歐洲與中國的關係是「利益高於風險」。"
"根據歐盟統計局的數據，在 2022 年，中國是歐盟貨品的第三大出口國（9%）、第一大進口國（20.8%）；而在歐盟會員國中，荷蘭進口最多中國貨品、德國對中國出口最多。"
"中國損失的還不只此。歐洲議會決議中言明：「與區域其他夥伴，包括台灣，的貿易或投資協議的考慮，不受投資協定審查被凍結的影響。」這改變了歐盟原來的政策：原本歐盟與香港和台灣開啟談判之可能性，必須「建立在與中國雙邊投資協定的文本基礎上」。這也預示了歐盟可能更進一步將對台與對中政策全面脫鉤。"
"這其中也顯示了中國的許多誤判。一是過度放大其市場的吸引力，迷信歐洲人終究會回頭跟中國做生意；第二，過度依恃與領導階層的交往，忽視民意機關歐洲議會在對外政策與條約審議上的影響力；第三，從未認清新疆人權侵害的國際觀感。"
歐盟大象的氣候暖化政策隨著疫情穩定後逐漸浮上檯面成為政治重點:
"The package of legislation, drafted by the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, ranks among the most ambitious plans yet by a major economic power to cut emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases such as methane that the majority of scientists say are causing the earth to warm. It calls for a massive shift by companies and households to cleaner technologies such as wind turbines, solar power and electric vehicles—including a requirement for the share of renewable sources in Europe’s energy mix to rise to 40% in 2030 from 20% currently. The plan aims to limit pollution across the European economy, including electricity generation, automobiles, housing, shipping and agriculture."
http://europechinese.blogspot.com/2021/05/blog-post_20.html
// 最新議案只是表態，正式說出了政治現實，對投資協定沒有影響，因為協定可以獲確認的機會本身就低至接近零。//
//跟去年的議案一樣，最新對中議案的最大影響是影響歐中關係氣氛，當其中一方的議會出一篇措施如此嚴厲的決議，這個雙邊關係很難向好。中方難免會對歐採取更強硬的立場，這造成一個歐中關係不斷變差的漩渦。
另一個影響，我之前也說過：歐洲議會議員跟歐盟執委會官員，以及跟在自己國家的黨友、包括成員國執政黨成員，是有溝通的，這份議案中的立場及建議措施不是憑空想像的，有些可能是歐委會及部份成員國政府官員不方便宣之於口的想法，有些更已在推動，例如加強審查中資在歐的投資，又或者不滿有成員國（即匈牙利）在對中關係上阻撓。
這意味，當一些障礙清除後，議案中的行動建議可以突然迅速落實；而議案中列出對中不滿的事宜，也很可能是日後歐盟對中政策文件的draft，新文件會以這份清單作為基礎來撰寫。//
@Perfume 這些加速大師真給力
@Perfume 這三點誤判都是長期獨裁養成的思維方式
歐盟這份對中報告猶在咬文嚼字呢:
"The multi-faceted approach ... should remain as the preferred way for the EU to deal with China. At the same time, further, robust efforts are needed on the implementation of existing actions and to address a number of new challenges."
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-china-biden-economy-climate-europe/