@Pat I'm holding a very cautious hope that omicron is less likely to put you in hospital than the previous variants. If that's the case, we want omicron to beat delta.
Yes, if Omicron induces strong immunity to the previous variants and is much less lethal and less virulent, then it would be a benefit to have it spread through the unvaxed population. However, the article said that 15 of the guy's friends all got sick, so it sounds like it's still fairly virulent because previous variants had significant non-symptomatic spread.
We just got to wait to see how bad it is as the numbers come in.
>"So from this it is really difficult to draw any actual conclusions. without more information."
With regard to the virulence of Omicron, no, we don't really know yet.
However, it is likely that it spread beyond the group of 30, because the NYT article said that a Connecticut man tested positive for the Omicron variant after one of his relatives returned from the conference. Since that is Connecticut's first case of Omicron, the man likely caught it from his relative who attended the conference, indicating that it spread beyond those 30 people in that one group.
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There has never been a remotely convincing study to show those numbers hold true in the wild.
Only time I woud expect masks to work are under highly controlled settings, even the data in those settings is severely lacking however.
I've explained my logic before, quite simply, masks encourage you to touch your face more and they tend to be used beyond just a few hours (the limit in a clinical setting) and become vectors themselves as well.
I agree that masks don't work very well at stopping the spread of the virus. That's why we need to wear respirators instead. I've cited the studies here before on that.
But respirators alone aren't 100% because, as you say, some people don't use them correctly. So we need to use the triad -- respirators, vaccines, and testing -- to eliminate the virus. The respirator component of that triad includes intensive public education on the use of them as well as widespread distribution of the devices.
Even respirators I feel somewhat confident drastically **increase** the spread of the virus when used by the general public for the same reasons a mask would.
See this reply for reasons why:
@freemo @Pat
A collection of studies about the effects of face masks&respirators can be found here
https://swprs.org/face-masks-evidence/
Esp. respirators are difficult to wear correctly, they need to fit precisely to protect the wearer. That's why fi health workers get to test several types, get an how-to and are eligible to breaks etc.
The average John Doe buys one, wears it incorrectly (glasses are fogging/over facial hair/gaps) and goes jogging ๐คฆ
@zleap @trinsec
The problem with most mask studies is they arent really designed to test real world effects well. They can show under ideal conditions they block transmission, and they do, but fail to factor in the points i mentioned or to test under real world conditions.
What real world tests we do have tend to rely on correlation and cause post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacies and dont really engage in well designed granger causality tests.
@freemo @Pat
Even if I didn't understand your last paragraph I believe you. But correlations strongly suggest that fi mandatory respirators didn't protect any more than masks (see numbers from Bavaria). Since I read at that time many complains about fogging glasses I think I know why. And since our Stiftung Warentest rated several respirator types as unsatisfactory due to obstructing breathing many wear them incorrectly or under their nose. ๐คท
@zleap @trinsec
bonifartius ๐ผ๐
The issue in my mind is not if masks work when used with the rigour of a surgeon.. they do. My issue is that the general ublic will not and cant be expected to use that rigour. The way the general public is expected to use masks is likely to produce a very different outcome than the ideal, so much so I strongly suspect it causes more harm than good.
@freemo
I agree. Esp since ppl think they are safe wearing a mask and go nearer to other ppl or spend more time indoors than without mask. @bonifartius @Pat @zleap @trinsec
Yes that too.. .From what I can tell the way almost everyone behaves with a mask on seems to significantly increase risks. Since I dont think its possible to train them otherwise (even surgeons need a team to engage in proper mask use) I think the effect of masks is likely harmful overall in any practical sense.
@freemo @blueplanetslittlehelper
that's people being dumb, not masks not working ;) it's the same story for the vaccines, where people act if they are 100% safe.
for me mask are probably still helpful, but i keep distance and know how to use a mask. if driving my car i also have to deal with the ignorance of people. nothing can protect you from that :)
@freemo @bonifartius @blueplanetslittlehelper @zleap
My anecdotal observations are that people always use their masks correctly and never touch their faces.
Never.
And when they wear a respirator it's even less often than that.
@Pat
Lolol i usually see people walking with a mask down by their chin thinking its doing something there somehow lol
@bonifartius @blueplanetslittlehelper @zleap
@freemo @Pat
Outdoors that is common here, too. And if not there are, more often then not, big gapes on both side of the nose, and/or parts of a beard can be seen. And nearly as many, even indoors, only cover their mouth, see https://nasenpimmel.de @bonifartius @zleap
>"Lolol i usually see people walking with a mask down by their chin thinking its doing something there somehow lol"
I guess they want to take it on the chin.
@bonifartius
I never claimed masks cant work or that it isnt people being dumb. My claim is that when people wear masks they increase the transmission of the virus. This relies on the fact that 99.9% of them will be "dumb" even if they know better.
A doctor even, whom knows thry should t take it off to take even a sip of water outside of a clean room, likely will take it off to sip their water, and will almost certainly touch the mask inappropriately when they do simply because their guard is down.
Its about human nature and how people will inevitably behave by having a mask on
@blueplanetslittlehelper @Pat @zleap