@Pat I'm holding a very cautious hope that omicron is less likely to put you in hospital than the previous variants. If that's the case, we want omicron to beat delta.
Yes, if Omicron induces strong immunity to the previous variants and is much less lethal and less virulent, then it would be a benefit to have it spread through the unvaxed population. However, the article said that 15 of the guy's friends all got sick, so it sounds like it's still fairly virulent because previous variants had significant non-symptomatic spread.
We just got to wait to see how bad it is as the numbers come in.
>"So from this it is really difficult to draw any actual conclusions. without more information."
With regard to the virulence of Omicron, no, we don't really know yet.
However, it is likely that it spread beyond the group of 30, because the NYT article said that a Connecticut man tested positive for the Omicron variant after one of his relatives returned from the conference. Since that is Connecticut's first case of Omicron, the man likely caught it from his relative who attended the conference, indicating that it spread beyond those 30 people in that one group.
๐ณ๐ฑ
There has never been a remotely convincing study to show those numbers hold true in the wild.
Only time I woud expect masks to work are under highly controlled settings, even the data in those settings is severely lacking however.
I've explained my logic before, quite simply, masks encourage you to touch your face more and they tend to be used beyond just a few hours (the limit in a clinical setting) and become vectors themselves as well.
I agree that masks don't work very well at stopping the spread of the virus. That's why we need to wear respirators instead. I've cited the studies here before on that.
But respirators alone aren't 100% because, as you say, some people don't use them correctly. So we need to use the triad -- respirators, vaccines, and testing -- to eliminate the virus. The respirator component of that triad includes intensive public education on the use of them as well as widespread distribution of the devices.
Even respirators I feel somewhat confident drastically **increase** the spread of the virus when used by the general public for the same reasons a mask would.
See this reply for reasons why:
The problem with most mask studies is they arent really designed to test real world effects well. They can show under ideal conditions they block transmission, and they do, but fail to factor in the points i mentioned or to test under real world conditions.
What real world tests we do have tend to rely on correlation and cause post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacies and dont really engage in well designed granger causality tests.
@freemo @Pat
Even if I didn't understand your last paragraph I believe you. But correlations strongly suggest that fi mandatory respirators didn't protect any more than masks (see numbers from Bavaria). Since I read at that time many complains about fogging glasses I think I know why. And since our Stiftung Warentest rated several respirator types as unsatisfactory due to obstructing breathing many wear them incorrectly or under their nose. ๐คท
@zleap @trinsec
bonifartius ๐ผ๐
The issue in my mind is not if masks work when used with the rigour of a surgeon.. they do. My issue is that the general ublic will not and cant be expected to use that rigour. The way the general public is expected to use masks is likely to produce a very different outcome than the ideal, so much so I strongly suspect it causes more harm than good.
@freemo
mpg tested for badly fitted masks:
> If both the infected and the non-infected person wear well-fitting FFP2 masks, the maximum risk of infection after 20 minutes is hardly more than one per thousand, even at the shortest distance. If their masks fit poorly, the probability of infection increases to about four percent. If both wear well-fitting medical masks, the virus is likely to be transmitted within 20 minutes with a maximum probability of ten percent. The study also confirms the intuitive assumption that for effective protection against infection, in particular the infected person should wear a mask that filters as well as possible and fits tightly to the face.
so, still only 4% in that study. from what i understand, the deflection of the cone of air exhaled already helps.
that people have to still use their brains is a given, as is that no measure helps 100%
@freemo
I agree. Esp since ppl think they are safe wearing a mask and go nearer to other ppl or spend more time indoors than without mask. @bonifartius @Pat @zleap @trinsec
Yes that too.. .From what I can tell the way almost everyone behaves with a mask on seems to significantly increase risks. Since I dont think its possible to train them otherwise (even surgeons need a team to engage in proper mask use) I think the effect of masks is likely harmful overall in any practical sense.
@freemo @blueplanetslittlehelper
that's people being dumb, not masks not working ;) it's the same story for the vaccines, where people act if they are 100% safe.
for me mask are probably still helpful, but i keep distance and know how to use a mask. if driving my car i also have to deal with the ignorance of people. nothing can protect you from that :)
@bonifartius
I never claimed masks cant work or that it isnt people being dumb. My claim is that when people wear masks they increase the transmission of the virus. This relies on the fact that 99.9% of them will be "dumb" even if they know better.
A doctor even, whom knows thry should t take it off to take even a sip of water outside of a clean room, likely will take it off to sip their water, and will almost certainly touch the mask inappropriately when they do simply because their guard is down.
Its about human nature and how people will inevitably behave by having a mask on
@freemo @bonifartius @blueplanetslittlehelper @zleap
My anecdotal observations are that people always use their masks correctly and never touch their faces.
Never.
And when they wear a respirator it's even less often than that.
@Pat
Lolol i usually see people walking with a mask down by their chin thinking its doing something there somehow lol
@bonifartius @blueplanetslittlehelper @zleap
@freemo @Pat
Outdoors that is common here, too. And if not there are, more often then not, big gapes on both side of the nose, and/or parts of a beard can be seen. And nearly as many, even indoors, only cover their mouth, see https://nasenpimmel.de @bonifartius @zleap
>"Lolol i usually see people walking with a mask down by their chin thinking its doing something there somehow lol"
I guess they want to take it on the chin.
@bonifartius
"Three metres are not enough to ensure protection. Even at that distance, it takes less than five minutes for an unvaccinated person standing in the breath of a person with Covid-19 to become infected with almost 100 percent certainty."
๐ฏ certainty? Really? How do they fit this with the SAR of 38% in unvaccinated household members in the UK? I don't wear a mask at home. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00648-4/fulltext
@freemo @Pat @zleap @trinsec
@blueplanetslittlehelper
"almost 100%" ;)
my guess is that most people don't get sick because cross immunity from othet viruses. i've had the flu two times in the past, now not for years, even if it also is a different strain now. there are tests for this for covid now, but they are expensive and nobody pays them. would be rather interesting.
@freemo @blueplanetslittlehelper @zleap @trinsec
Saying something doesn't work when it isn't even used properly isn't an argument at all. That's like saying that the vaccine doesn't work because they missed your arm and squirted all over your clothes instead.
FYI, this what a respirator looks like:
It sure is an argumet when you can virtually garuntee that 99.9% of the population will use it in a way that spreads disease. You cant expect people to use it with the same rigour as a surgeon and to expect it invites disaster
In fact the only reason a surgeon can use a mask effectively at all is thanks to a team of people there ready to scratch their nose for them and give them water without the need to touch their own mask.
>"That's not true. The name respirator includes N95 masks, too, without valve, the only type that is/was common and sometimes mandatory in Germany. They are no "cloth masks" and no surgical masks and should protect better, if they fit and are worn correctly. With they don't for most ppl, which is dangerous."
I understand that many people colloquially refer to respirators as "N95 masks", but they're not masks, they're respirators. They are completely different things.
I posted pics of two different types of respirators. There are other types also. The white one is known as a "filtering facepiece respirator" and the one the cop is wearing is known as "elastomeric respirator".
A mask just covers your nose and mouth. A respirator fits with an airtight seal. A mask is typically make of cloth fabric, while a respirator is made from a melt-blown material that uses electrostatic filtering to capture the smallest particles.
They are completely different.
Also, N95 is the lowest rating for respirators. They go up to N100 (99.97% efficiency).
@Pat
I think there is no denying that under ideal conditions a respirator will effectively filter viruses. I myself dont dispute that part. I just feel that benefit is completely negates and even increases transmission when people actually use them in the wild due to the level of rigor it takes doe them to be effective.
Anyone who sips a drink effectively is turning something that reduces transmission into something that increases it.
@blueplanetslittlehelper @zleap @trinsec
@freemo @blueplanetslittlehelper @zleap @trinsec
The preliminary data on omicron is that it has a very high R0, like the measles. For a virus that is transmitted nearly 100% via the air, touching your face is not an issue, it's breathing contaminated air.
The only way to not breathe contaminated air is to not be around where other people are (or have been) or to wear something that filters the air or has self-contained air.
Touch is virtually irrelevant with such a highly contagious, airborne virus.
@Pat
I addressed why a virus that under normal conditions is primarily airborn might still be an issue in the case of a mask. Largely because its half life on surfaces in the wild doesnt apply when talk about damp/humid environments like a face mask where it would easily survive (unlike natural surfaces)
@blueplanetslittlehelper @zleap @trinsec
>"Outdoors that is common here, too. And if not there are, more often then not, big gapes on both side of the nose, and/or parts of a beard can be seen. And nearly as many, even indoors, only cover their mouth, see "
What type of training do people get in wearing those respirators there?
@Pat @freemo
No training. They buy mostly the cheapest FFP2 they can find (online or in shops) and put it on their face. There is a little fitting instruction on the package, that's all. Maybe you could ask in the pharmacy, but try different types or put those back that don't fit you is not possible.
But when you have to wear some at work, that is a different matter entirely. @zleap @trinsec
@blueplanetslittlehelper @freemo @zleap @trinsec
People need to be trained on wearing them or else you'll have the situation like you have there. Just a 5-10 minute video is enough, and then maybe reminders on television and social media. But they need some kind of instruction on how to wear them and how to do a seal check.
I disagree, even with full training I dont think people will use masks effectively. The human nature to fidget, take sips of water, etc will override any train. For masks to be effective the discipline for most people is simply to great. Even surgeons have entire teams of people helping them to make it managable.
@freemo @blueplanetslittlehelper @zleap @trinsec
We have decades of experience with respirators in industry. They've been doing it for awhile.
If people can learn how to drive cars, use computers, cook, and do the thousands of other things that people do, certain they can learn how to use a respirator. Especially when their life depends on it.
Policymakers shouldn't tell people what they think they are capable of, they should tell people the straight facts. The truth. If the policymakers think that people are to stupid, then they should say, "This is what should be done, but we think people won't be able to do it."
Then let people figure it out from there. The way they are doing it now, they are giving false information because they think, "You can't handle the truth."
The result is that people are mislead, and then when they find out the truth they no longer believe the policymakers anymore, which is much worse because then the policymakers can no longer provide any credible guidance.
Using resperators in a noninfectious setting or even just professional settings in general, isnt really comparable. You have entire facilities and teams setup to support that process. If you need a sip of water you have clean rooms and decontamination arches you can pass through etc.
You simply cant replicate the rigor of a hazmat environment in the general public on a day to day basis for hours on end.
I doubt most people can effectively use a mask for 2 days let alone 2 weeks
@freemo @Zerglingman @blueplanetslittlehelper @trinsec @zleap
Two weeks -- it's better than nothing.
@Pat @freemo ???
"N95 is the lowest rating for respirators"
That means that the here used FFP2/KN95/N95 masks ( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/N95_respirator ) which are made of "melt-blown material with an airtight seal", just like the white one but without the valve, IS a respirator, and I didn't stated anything different.
@zleap @trinsec
@Pat @freemo
That's not true. The name respirator includes N95 masks, too, without valve, the only type that is/was common and sometimes mandatory in Germany. They are no "cloth masks" and no surgical masks and should protect better, if they fit and are worn correctly. With they don't for most ppl, which is dangerous. @zleap @trinsec
@freemo @Pat
A collection of studies about the effects of face masks&respirators can be found here
https://swprs.org/face-masks-evidence/
Esp. respirators are difficult to wear correctly, they need to fit precisely to protect the wearer. That's why fi health workers get to test several types, get an how-to and are eligible to breaks etc.
The average John Doe buys one, wears it incorrectly (glasses are fogging/over facial hair/gaps) and goes jogging ๐คฆ
@zleap @trinsec