Harold Asmis @hasmis@qoto.org

#physics #weather **California** Just to admit I was wrong, the big storms in the Pacific are still forming, but the path is now to Alaska. This brings Toronto a lot of NW clippers, very cold. However, the rain all bypasses callie, and they can be dry again. The mechanism is that the Arctic cold air well seems to have emptied again, and cold air through the Bering Str. isn't pushing down the storms.
The Europe cold air streams seem to be done, but that might just bring in the 60 below Siberian stuff.

#physics #weather **A bit more on the blog** I am giving up on the California report, and maybe, Europe.

https://ontario-geofish.blogspot.com/2023/01/calicanes-have-convection-to.html

#physics Longer paper on our sad state of 'creative destruction'.

https://ontario-geofish.blogspot.com/2023/01/incremental-improvement.html

#physics **Poop Cabbage** Physics tells us that the root membranes are effectively 'Reverse Osmosis Filters' Nothing gets by them. At our cottage (summer hut) we have a compost toilet and all the compost goes to growing 'Poop Potatoes'. I have this huge thermal compost bin in the back and it's hot even in the winter. I put all the dog poop in it. However, I also put in Miraclegro for the nitrogen. The physics error in the article is that there is not enough natural fixed nitrogen in the world to feed us.

#physics #weather **Pacific storm hits Alaska** These are very fast, and impossible to track, part time. Some new ones have formed.

#physics #weather **Calicanes are in stealth mode** On the standard satellite shot, these look like atmospheric rivers, not Atlantic hurricanes. That's because they are 'cold-driven' and do not exist in the standard vocabulary. I am amazed.

#physics #weather **Polar vortex in the news again** If we put this in terms of a SciMeth hypothesis then: The Polar Vortex, as defined only in the stratosphere, can drive weather on the surface. Again, this is ridiculous and breaks all the laws of physics. However, it makes good press. The stratosphere is effectively vacuum, and the air particles have very high velocity, but almost no energy. Like the sparks coming off a fireworks sparkler. 1000 degrees, but it won't burn you.

#physics #weather **North America cold blob becomes fully supported** Over in NA, we have missed the fun of 50 below intense air streams. Now we have one. I look first at mimic to see the speed of the front, then I look at the winds to see if it is backed up by laminar air flow. Finally, a look a the temperature. This duck has all three. But it is up against powerful heat flows from the Gulf and the west coast. Can it survive to freeze everybody? Stay tuned, or walk outside. :)

#physics #weather **Large storms continue to form and swim over to California** Looking at this mess only once a day, I now have no idea as to the sequence or who's who. This one looks to have a clear shot, right to Callie, and, as well, a new baby is born in the far west. A storm's energy is determined by the difference in temperature between the cold and hot streams. These storms are formed by intense cold entering the ambient warmth.

#physics #weather **North America finally gets the cold drip** The Arctic is a giant chocolate fountain pouring out its spouts. NA has missed it so far and the price of natgas was low. Now we have wide, slow cold air blob descending. Natgas price is zooming. We'll more things tomorrow.

#physics #weather **Physics of thermal windows #2** Since Europe is freezing, and the 20 below stuff is keeping away the 60 below stuff, we go on.
The overwhelming benefit of installing new windows is the sealing of air influx. This is noticed immediately with better humidity control. All else is gravy on the cake.
My 30 year old windows are fogging. Turns out that because of all the heat stress, the best glass sandwiches exchange air at 1% per year. All that 'argon fill' is useless. The new glass has 'selective reflection' which is good. But there is no difference between an air-vented sandwich, and a fancy sealed one.
The 'dirty trick' of the glass element is that it is packed with desiccant, the same as what your camera was packed with. That absorbs the water that sneaks in. After 30 years, this becomes a soggy mess and the windows fog, and all those minerals coat the inside glass. Blah!
-- tbc

#physics #weather **Somebody has responded** Yeah, I can go on for another day! I was thinking of stopping this stuff.

_Hi.I found your blog via Mastodon. And I find it fascinating. But of course, I don't learn any geophysic background. And I'm in Europe. Would you care to provide a little more explanation about why El Nino is not in the forecast? And why it won't change before 6 months? And why 20 years (this is a very loooong forecast, isn't?)
Thanks for sharing your expertise!

Blogger Harold Asmis said...
I have more background on the sidebar -- my geophysics pages. In a tiktok nutshell, we have had a big temperature cycles in the far and near past. There was a lot of ink spilled on why the current warm rise was not a cycle, but the physics hypothesis goes with the 'continuity hypothesis' of geology, and says it is just another cycle.
This is against the 'carbon thermal blanket hypothesis' which physics says is proven false. The hypothesis of cycles has the mechanism of ocean currents changing. They stay the same for a long time and then suddenly change, in a chaotic manner. However, when they are in the process of changing, you see little signs in the ocean currents. Right now, we have a very strong cold current feeding the Pacific Belt. Formerly, this has been a short rebound of El Nino, and the past ones can be seen in the old current maps.
El Nino is a reverse of the main westerly current on the Pacific belt. It has a huge effect on the current, and this is the primary force. For historic times, it was going off every 7 years or so, and then a rebound La Nina. But we are not in Kansas any more, and there have been major changes. I am looking for a sign of reversal. It has the mechanism of 'building up' heat around Indonesia. There is no sign of it, so I am going with previous cycles and say 20 years, at minimum. There is a chance we have gone to a major 'Little Ice Age' cycle and that is 300 years._

**That is way too long for the tiktok generation. They can stick to fantasy.**

#physics #weather **Simple momentum locks Pacific Cold Phase**

https://ontario-geofish.blogspot.com/2023/01/state-of-oceans-jan-17-2023.html

Not looking good for Australia, but they don't seem to be here, which is good for them.

#physics #weather **Europe a hunkahunka burning cold** The good news is that the 60 below stuff is being held off, but it still wants to come to the party.

#physics #weather **New Calicane has formed** I've lost track of everything, but a new storm has been born, and Calicane #2 has gathered strength and is moving down. The mimic shows that the main warm feed of #2 is being pushed down by cold.

#physics #weather **Two baby storms merging to one** This is all happening very fast - 'I was a twin in the womb, and ate the other one."

#physics **On the physics of thermal windows** Now that California and the UK must join us Canadians, we need to discuss new windows for the masses. Our old single-pane windows rattle in their frames, and leak like a sieve.
The greatest benefit you can have is by sealing your house. In winter, a leaky house has 20% humidity that kills you. An over-sealed house has 60% which causes the windows to rain, and produces black mold. You want a time in the winter with 40%, to kill all the little orgasmisms. (sic).
The glass sandwich has about a total effect of 5%, yet it is the big selling point. You want casement windows that seal like a fridge. You don't need triple pane unless you live by the train.
--tbc.

#physics #weather **UK gets the full blast** This is what I was talking about when I said they would get what they had last time. That's the 'full stream' pouring over them. Very nice winter pictures. Of course, this is 'extreme weather' predicted by 'clange'. I hope all their 'warm weather dancing' is keeping them warm. :)

#physics #weather **Washpost turns on forecasters**
“You have no idea come Dec. 1 what your winter is going to look like because our seasonal forecasts are so bad,” said Jeffrey Mount, a senior fellow with the Public Policy Institute of California’s Water Policy Center, in an interview. “They are just not reliable enough to make definitive water supply decisions.”
This is funny. And, of course, the guard turns to climate change, and 'they saw it coming all the time'.

#physics #weather **California storms run aground - two new storms form** Last night, I was haunted by the image of 3 perfect storms. Now, they have mucked up a bit.