進入網路世紀, 中國特有體驗也從糧票升級到房票了...
"綜合中華網財經等媒體報導，武漢市房管局28日發布「關於加強購房資格管理工作的通知（徵求意見稿）」意見的公告，徵求意見時間至8月6日。這項通知被業界戲稱「武漢進入憑票買房的時代」。"
一邊緊控買方市場一邊賣方破產上升的恐怖房市氣球遊戲...
"亞洲旅宿大數據研究院統計發現，中國近三年聲請破產的房企呈現上升趨勢，二○一九年有三七七家房企宣告破產，二○二○年有四七○家，今年才過七個月，宣告破產房企已達二四九家。
該研究院首席分析師高松元表示，聲請破產的絕大多數為地方型小房企，二四九家中，廣東省數量最多、達四十六家，其次為江蘇的廿一家、浙江二十家；按過去經驗，下半年破產房企會更多，進入八月第一天，就有雲南新立邦房地產開發公司、天津松江興業房地產開發公司、天津松江恆泰房地產開發公司三業者聲請破產。
儘管宣告破產大部分是中小型房企，但Ａ股五十家已披露半年業績預報的上市房企中，也有近半預告虧損。"
https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/paper/1464751?utm_medium=R&utm_campaign=SHARE&utm_source=FACEBOOK
"在此之前，中國監管機關目標，主要是包括萬達、安邦、復星和海航等在海外大肆併購的集團，然而，沒想到恆大才是金融體系最薄弱的一環，而且很可能傷害到中國在疫情後的經濟復甦。壓力爆發的關鍵在2020年12月，文件顯示，恆大集團主要境內子公司恆大地產有2057億人民幣的未償還商業票據，成為中國應付票據存續規模最高的房企。"
這些外資要當恆大的接盤俠也不錯啦，親中外韭死一個是一個~^^
[ The widening regulatory crackdown that sparked a big selloff last month in the shares of internet-technology and education companies has also weighed on Chinese credit markets, pushing down prices of even investment-grade bonds. The moves show China is getting more serious about reining in companies whose business practices are seen at odds with national priorities. Investors are now actively looking for sectors that might be next in the crosshairs.
“A lot of the tension is focused on the property sector, and it’s really been driven by [China’s] policy,” ]
外媒很關注恆大欸~
"路透報導，港交所公告，中國恒大利潤主要構成為：房地產開發業務虧損約為人民幣40億元，恒大汽車虧損約為人民幣48億元，出售持有恆騰網絡部分股份及持有其其餘股份按市價估值之盈利合計約人民幣185億元。...
...目前正深陷財務風暴的中國恒大集團，近期傳出將賣房籌錢。彭博引述消息表示，恒大有意出售其位於香港灣仔的集團總部大樓中國恒大中心，喊價約20億美元，以紓緩財困。據稱有兩家公司正與恒大談判，尚未作出任何決定。"
不准唱空政策出檯後，恆大就坦率說準備要違約了:
"恆大股價也因財務暴雷，今年已下跌71%。
《彭博》報導，恆大正出售上市電動汽車和物業管理部門的股權與資產，並積極尋求新投資者，挹注資金。恆大坦承，部分房地產開發應付款項逾期，導致部分項目停工，目前公司正在與供應商和建築承包商談判以恢復工作，會盡最大的努力按計劃完工。"
前幾天被接連調降評等的新聞或許是傳聞肇因之一？
「9月6日星期一，評級機構穆迪又調降了恆大及其子公司的評級，理由是：“在違約的情況下，恆大債權人獲得賠償的前景不佳”。周二，國際第三大評級機構惠譽緊隨其他評級機構的腳步，也給恆大降了級。自2021年年初以來，恆大股價的下跌幅度超過了75%，恆大的股價及其債券的價值因而跌到了它2015年時的水平，尤其是那些應該在2023年償還的債券。」
骨牌效應。
"惠譽表示，恆大5720億人民幣的貸款為銀行等金融機構持有，但銀行或許對恆大的供應商有間接曝險，這些供應商的商品和服務欠款6670億元人民幣。
惠譽說：「對恆大或其他脆弱開發商曝險較大的小型銀行，可能面臨不良貸款大幅增加，這取決於涉及恆大的信貸事件如何發展。」"
房地產與家庭財富的高度重疊讓整個泡沫破滅的地產業成了燙手山芋。
"Currently, more than three-quarters of household wealth in China is tied up in real estate, and Beijing has a strong incentive to make sure that such wealth doesn’t go down in an exploding bubble. A collapse of Evergrande could be detrimental to property values, which would deal a blow to consumer wealth and in turn lead to a slowdown in consumption and investment, in addition to other consequences. Because the CCP has focused its attention on de-risking the property sector and other developers have done good jobs of reducing their debt burdens so far, it should reduce the effect of an Evergrande collapse. Nonetheless, the firm is so big that this ripple effect is possible."
https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/is-chinas-evergrande-group-too-big-to-fail/
看到這些數字才對影響規模有些具體概念...
"恆大員工達20萬人，在中國數百座城市中有數千個開發項目，間接影響380萬人就業，恆大破產不僅衝擊數百萬購房者，以及大量供應商、建築商的利益，還將重創就業市場，尤其恆大負債涉及超過128家銀行與121家非銀行機構，恆大倒閉也將重創中國金融市場和金融系統的穩定。"
這麼大的危機事件, 即使沒有一整套完整解決方案, 好歹也要表個態吧? 但北京當局到目前為止都是作壁上觀, 好像在等最大尋租利益出現, 比外資更像外人.
“we think it is imperative for the government to provide clear communication on the plan regarding Evergrande and to shore up confidence among home buyers, suppliers and contractors, banks and other nonbank financial institutions,”
今天傳出以海航模式處理的最新傳聞:
"《Asia Markets》報導，中國政府消息人士透露，中國政府正在介入恆大債務危機，恆大有可能被分成三個實體，最終決定或將在幾天內宣布。
報導指出，房地產巨頭有可能轉變為國有企業；根據消息人士透露，這項協議的用意在於保護購買恆大房產的一般民眾，以及恆大財富的投資人，最重要的是防止恆大破產對中國經濟的衝擊，這項重組計畫與恆大5年期債券利息到期日有關。"
不曉得匯豐踩得有多深...
"對於這波中國地產股崩跌，凱爾巴斯在推特上用「banking crisis」是一語雙關，除了銀行因為放款給地產公司而慘遭倒帳的危機之外，從他標記匯豐銀行就暗示著，這些銀行還可能涉嫌非法貸款、超貸給這些地產公司，恐面臨司法上的調查和整肅，是另一種的「banking crisis」。"
【恆大們出列！一天暴跌87％不能再高了 華爾街大佬點名香港這家銀行涉超貸】
出處：信傳媒( https://www.cmmedia.com.tw/home/articles/29912 )
對匯豐執行長的空虛發言只想翻白眼：
「據報導，匯豐資產管理部門、貝萊德、瑞銀等公司一直是恆大債券的最大持有者。根據《彭博》彙編數據，匯豐約持有2億美元的恆大美元債券。」
WSJ這篇新加坡出的稿被不救派認為是證明:
[ The officials characterized the actions being ordered as “getting ready for the possible storm,” saying that local-level government agencies and state-owned enterprises have been instructed to step in to handle the aftermath only at the last minute should Evergrande fail to manage its affairs in an orderly fashion. ]
汪浩簡單點出恆大債務危機之所以是系統性風險而非單一企業或產業問題的成因：
「中國房地產是中國經濟支柱產業，穩增長必備：拉動GDP三成，貢獻財政四成，創造信用五成，是中國經濟內循環的核心動力。房地產的問題，絕不只是來自房地產，而是中國經濟增長模式、貨幣發行模式、信用創造模式、財政運行模式、國家和社會治理模式等種種問題的集中表現。 隨著人口懸崖和債務大爆發，房地產不斷的金融化，成為債務密集度畸高的行業。從拿地到開發，基本上都是依靠債務－－房企開發貸+居民按揭貸。
中國的債務型經濟增長模式，經過金融深化與金融自由化，已經具備所有金融危機的動因。 中國房地產的高槓桿屬性，銀行放貸失控火上澆油，房價上漲抵押物升值會進一步助推銀行加大放貸，甚至主動說服客戶抵押貸、放槓桿。在世界歷史上，歷次房地產泡沫中銀行業都深陷其中，房地產危機既是金融危機也是經濟危機。」
這篇認為當中國政府意識到投資效益低下後試圖用提高內需拉抬效益, 當投資集中於房市開始過熱後又嘗試以三條紅線等政策降溫, 於是地產開發商龍頭就這麼卡住了:
"Since 2008, it has needed ever more debt to deliver the same increment to economic output. Between 2008 and 2019, total debt—government, household and business—rose from 169% to 306% of gross domestic product, but GDP growth fell from 10% to 6%. Productivity growth adjusted for the expanding stock of buildings, machinery and other capital was 2.6% a year from 2000 to 2010. It has been negative since 2015, a sign of how inefficient much of that investment has been.
A few years ago Beijing recognized this model was unsustainable and has sought in fits and starts to shift to “higher quality” growth more dependent on consumers. That process was bound to be disruptive; indeed, it triggered a disorderly devaluation of the yuan in 2015, but it did succeed in slowing the buildup of debt.
Last year, to tide the economy through the pandemic, credit was loosened again. Yet Chinese officials see soaring housing prices as a threat to financial and social stability so they laid out a three-year timetable for lending to the red-hot property sector to be reined in. Just as the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate increases eventually popped the U.S. housing bubble over a decade ago, those regulatory restrictions, with a lag, popped China’s, said Gene Ma, head of China research at the Institute for International Finance. Evergrande was an early casualty since it is one of the most leveraged developers, he said."
等著看金融業者能雙邊失血支援多久。
"花旗集團估計，至今年底，中國銀行系統約41%資產直接或間接與房地產有關，房價走跌恐引發銀行資產的連鎖反應。中國銀行提供給開發商及購屋者的未償付貸款估計達50兆人民幣（215.27兆台幣）。"
"知情人士披露，官員要求銀行不可全面切斷對開發商的融資，應持續對營建中的計畫提供支持，並批准購買預售屋者的抵押貸款。"
WSJ這篇用圖表具體指出中國房市泡沫與恆大事件的規模: 前者是美國2005年房市泡沫的翻倍($847 billion v. $1.6 trillion), 後者的開發項目樓地板面積總和約相當於513棟帝國大廈.
"Analysts have generally indicated an Evergrande default wouldn’t spur a crisis of confidence like the one that followed the Lehman Brothers collapse. But Evergrande is the largest property developer in a Chinese real-estate bubble that has been expanding for years. Investment over the past decade in China’s residential-property market has dwarfed the U.S. housing bubble of the 2000s, at least in terms of its share of domestic economic output."
中國房市的危機點: 大城市以外的房地產仰賴泡沫支撐.
"But property construction in smaller cities ran well ahead of demand from prospective occupants for the last five years in China, leaving the market increasingly dependent on speculators and investors to buy properties, said Logan Wright, China markets research director at Rhodium Group, a research firm based in New York. About 21% of homes in urban China were already vacant in 2017, which equated to 65 million empty units, according to data from China Household Finance Survey."
? 結果在恆大之後爆的竟然是一間完全沒聽過的中國地產商...
[ 惠誉将花样年的评级从“B”调降至“CCC-”并警告称，该公司财务状况存在不确定性，面临无法在周一偿还2.08亿美元的一个更受瞩目的国际债券的“重大”风险。
不过，最初的警报是由媒体报道引发的，媒体报道称花样年错过了9月28日到期的一笔1亿美元款项支付，这笔款项本应支付给那些对私人债券行使所谓“看跌”期权的债券持有人。" ]
https://www.reuters.com/article/china-property-fantasia-idCNL4S2R0281
比較吃驚WSJ這麼快能抓出花樣年的資料來, 該不會把中國前一百大的地產商資料都備好了吧...
"When compared with Evergrande, Fantasia is significantly smaller in size. Its sales in the first nine months of 2021 ranked 73rd among its domestic peers, while Evergrande was in third place, according to a market report by research firm CricChina."
不知道野村的預估是否包含影子銀行部位。
「野村預估，截至今年6月，中國開發商的債務已達5.2兆美元（約新台幣147.1兆）。最高比例為銀行貸款佔46％，債券市場則大約佔10％，包括相當於 2170億美元（約新台幣6.1兆）的美元債券，其中許多是垃圾債券。」
看樣子應該是有包括在內。
“The real-estate giants have borrowed not only from banks but also from shadow-banking outfits known as trust companies and from individuals who put their savings into investments called wealth-management products. Abroad, they became a mainstay of international junk-bond markets, offering juicy yields to get deals done.”
趙君朔這集把最近的恆大危機連帶影響整理得很詳細：
中國開發商危機名單新增佳兆業集團:
"Kaisa’s tumble takes its shares’ year-to-date losses to nearly 73% amid growing investor concerns about Chinese developers’ ability to refinance or repay billions of dollars in debt. Fitch and S&P Global Ratings both downgraded the already junk-rated Kaisa in October to CCC-plus, near the bottom of their ratings scales, citing refinancing risk."
驚訝聯準會發這個示警:
「有鑒於中國經濟與金融系統的規模，以及其與世界其餘地方的廣大貿易連結，在風險情緒惡化之下，中國的金融壓力可能會讓全球金融市場感到緊張，對全球經濟成長構成風險，進而影響美國。」
報告只有85頁, 恆大部分在第65頁:
"Stresses in China’s real estate sector could strain the Chinese financial system, with
possible spillovers to the United States
In China, business and local government debt remain large; the financial sector’s leverage is
high, especially at small and medium-sized banks; and real estate valuations are stretched. In
this environment, the ongoing regulatory focus on leveraged institutions has the potential to
stress some highly indebted corporations, especially in the real estate sector, as exemplified by
the recent concerns around China Evergrande Group. Stresses could, in turn, propagate to
the Chinese financial system through spillovers to financial firms, a sudden correction of real
estate prices, or a reduction in investor risk appetite. Given the size of China’s economy and
financial system as well as its extensive trade linkages with the rest of the world, financial
stresses in China could strain global financial markets through a deterioration of risk sentiment, pose risks to global economic growth, and affect the United States."
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20211108.pdf
看這篇看得很痛快，驚嘆米國聯準會在矽谷銀行事件後的檢討之犀利明確，希望台灣的金管會也能見賢思齊讓表現有到這個水準:
"聯邦儲備委員會最近決定建立一個專門的新活動監管小組，由一支專家團隊專注於新活動風險，這應該有助於未來改善對像SVB這樣的銀行的監管。
但是，該銀行的獨特性質和其對科技行業的關注並不是全部故事。畢竟， #SVB的失敗是由於利率風險和流動性風險的管理不善引起的，這是銀行業中眾所周知的風險。
我們的審查考慮了幾個問題：
- 管理方法在識別這些風險方面的有效性如何？
- 一旦識別出風險，監管機構能否區分對銀行安全和穩健構成實質威脅的風險？
- 監管機構是否擁有減輕風險的工具？
- 董事會和聯邦儲備銀行的文化、政策和實踐是否支持監管機構有效使用這些工具？
除了提出這些問題，我們還需要問一下，為什麼該銀行無法在足夠的時間內解決我們識別出的問題。監管機構的工作不是解決識別出的問題，而是銀行的高級管理層和董事會解決問題。"
看來佳兆業的引信沒解除:
"Shenzhen-based Kaisa is one of the Chinese property sector’s biggest offshore borrowers, after China Evergrande Group, with about $10.9 billion of dollar bonds outstanding as of the end of June. In 2015, it became one of the first Chinese developers to default abroad."
"Hong Kong-listed Kaisa is also nearing the end of a 30-day grace period for more than $88 million of coupon payments that were due last month but that it failed to pay on time. It didn’t specify whether there was any such grace period for repayment of principal on its maturing bonds."
新增違約: 陽光100
"陸媒中證網報導，陽光100中國今天在港交所公告，「公司發行並於新加坡證券交易所上市的10.5%優先票據本金及利息於12月5日到期。公司無法償還，已發生違約事件」。
據公告，票據未償還本金總額1.7億美元，應計及未付利息總額892.5萬美元。「公司已在積極與持有該等票據的持有人溝通，以盡快與該等持有人達成還款展期或其他還款安排」。"
綠地aka上海地產和上海城投以七折目標價售出洛杉磯地產物件也被WSJ獨家報導了:
"Overall, Chinese firms have sold a net $23.6 billion of U.S. commercial properties since 2019, according to data provider MSCI Real Assets.
Greenland has been among the active sellers. The firm traded two apartment buildings in Brooklyn for $315 million earlier this year. It also put the 350-key hotel at the Metropolis on the market for sale, according to a report in The Real Deal, a property-industry publication."
北上深廣以外的中國房市現況:
"據《日本財經新聞》報導，中國房價下跌的現像已從小城市蔓延到一些大城市，為避免房價持續探底對經濟造成傷害，包含成都、天津和南京等次於「北上廣深」的新一線城市紛紛展開自救，成都市11月23日宣佈為房地產開發商和購房者提供融資的措施，要求金融機構放寬對開發商和購房者的貸款限制，並加速發放貸款，並提供較低的利率。"
"中國國家統計局數據顯示，今年5月中國70個主要城市中，有五個城市的新建公寓價格較往年下降，這一數字在10月份飆升至52，創2015年2月以來的記錄。"
紐時用南昌這城市的管中窺豹分析了中國房市整體狀況：
＂Nanchang’s 20 percent residential vacancy rate was higher than the 12 percent average among a nationwide sample, according to an August report by China’s Beike Research Institute. Soaring vacancies garnered a lot of attention because they confirmed that China’s real estate woes were more widespread than Beijing had let on.
據貝殼研究院去年8月發布的報告，中國28個大中城市平均住房空置率為12%，南昌20%的空置率高於平均水平。全國各地的高空置率引起了很多關注，因為它們證實了中國的房地產危機比政府透露的更為普遍。＂
https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20230526/china-housing-crisis-nanchang/zh-hant/dual/
中國要打房地產破泡沫很難破除其堅實的社會心理結構:
"The conflicts show the difficult balance that China is trying to strike as it tries to shore up a slumping property sector without angering citizens and potentially causing social unrest. There is also the risk of further damaging consumer confidence and hurting consumption if people expect their homes—which are among their most valuable assets—to fall in value. "
兩年後的雪上加霜: 銀行的款放不出去, 韭菜們紛紛提早還貸縮手了....
"While China’s housing data in general was weak in April, the most worrying figure was a decline in new medium- and long-term consumer loans—a proxy for mortgages. Year-over-year growth in the outstanding stock of such loans stalled out, after three months of steady gains. And the actual value outstanding fell outright by 211 billion yuan ($29.7 billion) in April from March, according to figures from data provider CEIC: the largest decline since at least 2010."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-spring-stall-darkens-employment-picture-2afa1f1f
老蠻提到的中國銀行開始出現商票違約潮這點是比較少人提到的觀察點:
中國金融2023收尾很不妙⋯⋯
“截至10月底，中國境內人民幣存款餘額287.28兆元，貸款餘額235.33兆元，整個銀行體系帳面上的貸存比是82%，扣掉加權平均存款準備金率7.4%，銀行能為整個經濟體周轉的資金很有限。人民銀行為何不調降存款準備率？因為9月15日才剛降存準備率，若現在再降，好不容易穩在7.3兌1美元水準的人民幣，就不知道要怎麼守下去。
流動性枯竭的另一個現象是票據違約。根據上海票據交易所的資料，2023年銀行違約沒有憑票付款的票據很有限，但8月至10月，各家企業由銀行擔保的票據違約紀錄分別是217、247、249件；票據都是由銀行擔保，但銀行沒辦法付錢，屬於信用違約。”
https://www.wealth.com.tw/articles/e8d12231-0902-4173-9f94-6a6e7d022850
嘆氣: 外溢效應在吸納中國資金最多的新加坡已經有些苗頭了...
"Singapore has drawn dozens of property-trust listings over the past two decades, and has become the biggest Asian market for REITs outside of Japan. The vehicles together account for 12% of Singapore’s total stock-market capitalization. The recent declines in U.S. property valuations and stock prices are shaping up to be a test of the market’s resilience. Most China-focused REITs haven’t reported such declines—but analysts say the worry is that the effects of China’s sputtering recovery will start to affect occupancy at malls and industrial parks that some of the trusts hold, and their valuations. "
超有錢的中國人跑去遠一點的新加坡設立家族基金, 普通有錢的中國人則去近一點的香港落腳:
香港眼下是真不好：
“
隨著交易量下滑，市場信心不足，新股估值打折，港股上半年首次公開發行（IPO）集資額跌出全球前3名，掉到第6，IPO表現為有史以來最差。
因為市場整體成交疲軟，港股流動性極差。數據顯示，8月15日當天，港股高達865檔股票全天零成交，無人問津；日成交額10萬元以下的達到1,384支，占比53%。
統計顯示，今年以來共有14家港股上市公司刊發私有化退市公告；而2022年全年港股私有化退市公司15家。
投資者心灰意冷的同時，香港券商結業潮正在蔓延。截至8月1日，有24家券商在年內向港交所發出停止營業的通知；而在2021至2022年間，更已累計有67家券商向港交所發出停止營業的通知。
證券時報引述耀才證券執行董事兼行政總裁許繹彬指出，港股目前的主要推動力為南下資金（陸資），但由於近半年人民幣匯率持續偏弱，從而令南下資金投資港股的力度下滑，港股因而變得毫無動力，成交不斷萎縮。
數據顯示，今年上半年南下資金累計淨買入港股1,235億元，較去年同期的2,076億元大減40.51%。”
沒想到不到半年就走到廢墟的地步：
"《彭博》統計，香港股市總市值從2021年高點下跌超過6兆美元（約新台幣188兆元），而新的上市公司亦不復見，香港正在失去亞洲金融中心的地位。"
跑去新加坡成功出逃的韭菜們至少省了六百萬人頭稅~
"文章披露，由於財政困窘，中國地方政府竟然採取了勒索手段，也就是「查稅」。上海一位工廠老闆爆料，「黨」的官員透過金融機構，清查擁有3000萬人民幣以上流動資產的富豪名單，要這些富豪做出選擇，一是交出20%（資產），二是冒著接受全面查稅的風險。"
"新加坡是中國富豪移民首選，一位當地鄭姓商人說，新加坡現在是中國有錢人的避風港，2022年中資企業在當地註冊家數達到7312家，年增47%，「阿里巴巴許多高管都在這裡落腳，且非常低調」。"
匯豐銀行這類涉足中國太深以致無法自地緣政治風險抽身的代價會越來越大，匯豐持有中國交行股份的帳面價值與市場價值落差在未來可能還要面臨人民幣資產貶值的匯差損失:
"If HSBC impaired the stake, that would hit earnings, according to Costello at Autonomous. A write-down to the level implied by the stock price would cut HSBC’s tangible book value—one of the key measures that investors use to value banks—by 7%, Costello said.
Autonomous的Costello認為，如果滙豐對持有的交行進行減值，將損害盈利。Costello說，如果估值減記到符合交行實際股價的水平，那意味著滙豐的有形帳面價值（投資者用來評估銀行價值的關鍵指標之一）將減少7%。"
半年後的揭曉:
[ Analysts expected a boost of about $1.4 billion from the net release of expected credit losses over the year, but in the fourth quarter, HSBC budgeted a fresh $450 million for likely credit losses, saying those largely reflected “recent developments in China’s commercial real-estate sector.” ]
WSJ這篇也提到了趙君朔提及的飲鴆止渴現在正反噬金融體系:
"Many economists are projecting growth of around 5% in 2022, which would be one of the lowest rates in decades. Some say it could come in lower if the real estate slowdown worsens and becomes more like one that began in 2014, when the market was plagued by falling prices and high inventories.
In the wake of the 2014 housing downturn and the 2008 financial crisis, China unleashed large amounts of stimulus, including cuts in interest rates and ramped-up property and infrastructure investments.
Those responses gave quick jolts to the economy, but saddled China’s financial system with too much debt. They also cultivated a mentality among investors and home buyers that China’s government wouldn’t allow major losses in investments or home values for fear of social unrest.
This time, China has been treading carefully, with more-modest easing steps."
@goodrich 不多:
"晨星指出，貝萊德在今年1月至8月間增持3130萬張恆大債券，其價值佔貝萊德亞洲高收益債基金總資產的1%，約1700萬美元（約新台幣4.72億元）。而匯豐銀行截至7月對恆大集團的投資部位猛增40%，瑞銀截至5月為止的投資部位則增加25%。"
@Perfume 還是大大好過預期
@Perfume 这个段位的不叫韭菜了，也是吃韭菜长肥的猪牛羊。
「在更早之前，中共在歷經2014因為限購令等因素造成房價出現明顯跌幅後，還是選擇飲鴆止渴又走上依賴房地產拉動經濟的老路才是今天這個局面的禍首。從2016開始，中共想出的新方法是搞更新類似西方貧民區的棚戶改造，雖然在手上法是更有創意。
這類的棚戶改造是由國家開發銀行領頭，提供進行改造的融資。具體進行的方式是拆除原來居民的棚戶，並以每平方米約3000人民幣的價格給予補償，但這個補償的金額不是直接撥給居民，而是撥到一個第三方託管帳戶。然後在棚戶居民選好要購買哪一棟新的在原址改好的公寓後，帳戶的款項便直接付給開發商。同時購買搬入新公寓的居民還能獲得一個當地的戶口。雖然帶頭貸款的是國開行，但該行也是依靠人民銀行提供的低息融資，從2015年中到2017年底，人民銀行便提供了大概2兆人民幣的貸款給各地這類的項目。各地方政府擁有的商業銀行也跟進提供了大量資金。
換言之，直到貿易戰和美中對抗開始前，是中共自己主動養大這個已經變成怪獸的房地產泡沫來換取光鮮亮麗的短期經濟成長，而不是去進行代價高昂的痛苦改革來調整經濟體質，才造成今天這個無法收拾的局面。」
https://voicettank.org/%E6%81%86%E5%A4%A7%E5%8D%B3%E5%B0%87%E5%B4%A9%E6%BD%B0/