歐美政府官員似乎不太明白半導體產業與傳產製造業的巨大差異何在。
「即將舉行的會議中，布勒東則計畫能夠說服其中一間半導體巨頭赴歐洲設廠。歐盟期望能在2030年以前，將半導體產量提昇一倍，達到世界整體產量比例的20%。
且不只追求產量倍增，歐盟更希望能擁有先進的2奈米晶片製造工廠，並不單單謀求車用晶片所需的成熟製程。由於台積電在半導體產業的領導地位無可爭議，消息人士指出，目前歐盟在兩者之中更屬意台積電。」
https://www.bnext.com.tw/article/62494/eu-tsmc-intel-semiconductor-factory
無論是美國的美國製造、歐盟的半導體、中國的內循環，都有著「恃強凌行」的反全球化思維。效益不高便罷，動搖政治合作基礎就得不償失了。
“劉德音並直指，美國應該做的，並不是改變供應鏈：「我認為美國應該追求更快的運轉，投資在研發上，並培育更多博士、碩士和學士學生進入製造領域，而非試著移動供應鏈，不但非常花錢，而且成效不高。」
劉德音補充，如果一國執意要把技術鎖在國內、避免全球合作，將減緩創新速度。”
美中競爭的態勢越發確立:
"「無盡邊疆法」（Endless Frontier Act）將要求美國政府在5年內投入1000億美元，用於投資基礎和先進科技研究、商業化，以及重要科技領域的教育、訓練計畫，包括人工智慧、半導體、量子計算、先進通訊、生物科技與先進能源等。
法案另將撥款100億美元給指定的至少10個區域科技中樞，並創造供應鍊危機因應計畫，來解決諸如衝擊汽車生產的半導體晶片短缺等問題。"
新措施出爐：
「在長篇的供應鏈審覈報告中，由美國政府四個部門分別負責檢討美國四大“脆弱”的供應鏈。衛服部負責關鍵藥物原料、能源部負責檢討用於電動汽車的大容量電池、商務部負責檢討用於汽車及手機等產品的半導體芯片、國防部則負責審覈與國防技術相關的稀土礦物。」
「美國國安會負責國際經濟和競爭力事務的資深主任哈瑞爾(Peter Harrell)在當日白宮記者會上提到，“糾察隊”會特別鎖定上述四項關鍵供應鏈產品，追蹤導致“掏空”美國供應鏈的具體貿易違規行爲，並透過貿易手段糾正。」
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/junshiwaijiao/jt-06082021192537.html
白宮的報告連結：
“Our economic security—steady employment and smooth operations of critical industries—also requires secure and resilient supply chains. For more than a decade, the Department of Defense has consistently found that essential civilian industries would bear the preponderance of harm from a disruption of strategic and critical materials supply. The Department of Energy notes that, today, China refines 60 percent of the world’s lithium and 80 percent of the world’s cobalt, two core inputs to high-capacity batteries—which presents a critical vulnerability to the future of the U.S. domestic auto industry.”
對WSJ三名記者下的標題翻白眼: 搞清楚, 從來就是中國找我們台灣麻煩, 不是我們台灣找世界麻煩~
[ U.S. officials have said they believe the chance of a conflict has grown after an increase in Chinese military activity near Taiwan—an issue that was noted in a public rebuke of China issued by Group of Seven leaders this week. Still, many analysts believe China won’t try to reclaim Taiwan in the near future because the move could disrupt its own supply of chips.
Taiwanese leaders refer to the local chip industry as Taiwan’s “silicon shield,” helping protect it from such conflict. Taiwan’s government has showered subsidies on the local chip industry over the years, analysts say.
TSMC’s Ms. Kao said the company’s success comes from being in the right place at the right time, with the right business model. While Taiwan’s government played a crucial role in its founding investment, she said, the company doesn’t receive subsidies to build facilities. ]
"路透社報導，世貿3人組成的爭端解決小組駁回中國所有4項指控，並表示美方的措施未違反全球貿易規定。"
美中貿易戰打到現在一舉回到本世紀初:
"China’s share of trade with the U.S. dipped again, continuing a downward trend. China accounted for 15.4% of U.S. goods imports for the 12 months ended April, the smallest share since October 2006."
"China’s loss of share has meant gains for European nations, Mexico and other Asian sources. A group of 25 Asian and South Asian countries, including India, Japan and Vietnam, accounted for 24.7% of goods imports for the 12 months ended in April."
米國在重造供應鏈上已做好長期抗戰的心理準備:
"Trade tensions between the U.S. and China have been building for years, and the new investment restrictions aren’t a surprise. Samuels said companies will need to continue building alternative supply chains that focus on manufacturing capacity outside of mainland China, such as Taiwan. Over time, Mexico could play a role in regional semiconductor manufacturing as well, she said.
Any midterm pain could be offset by the long-term benefits of re-establishing domestic manufacturing capacity for semiconductors and other advanced technologies. "
在航貿戰爭有百年以上深切體認的歐洲人直指維持自由航行貿易之核心在於維持秩序的武力:
[ Governments from Europe to Asia that have grown prosperous and accustomed to safe seas want to keep maritime chokepoints open, particularly the Suez Canal, the Taiwan Strait and the Horn of Africa. But they aren’t budgeting for enforcement, said Jacques Vandermeiren, chief executive of the Port of Antwerp-Bruges, Europe’s second-largest.
“Who is securing free trade in the world now?” said Vandermeiren. “Is it always the U.S.? A global coalition? Who will organize this and who will pay for it?” ]
“美國試圖向歐洲提出一項挑戰中國國家資本主義模式的可行戰略，以類似西方版一帶一路計劃取代中國為主導地位的計劃以及保護關鍵供應鏈。外交關係協會（Council on Foreign Relations）的希爾曼（Jennifer Hillman）指出，白宮上週發表的供應鏈相關報告，不僅僅是重振美國經濟的藍圖，它實際上是關於讓美國和歐洲的資本主義能適應並足以跟中國國家資本主義競爭。希爾曼說：「這不僅僅是要跟中國脫鉤，而是增加供應鏈的彈性並終結製造業的壟斷。這不是關閉貿易，而是要更具競爭力。」”
波音和空中巴士長達17年的競爭糾葛以五年休兵作為結盟示誠。
“The agreement includes details on how the EU and the U.S. will work together to push for a global level playing field for competition, which would likely include taking on large-scale subsidies provided by China for their aircraft sector.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-and-eu-near-deal-on-boeing-airbus-trade-fight-11623747870
The Diplomat這篇分析說歐盟的FDI遇到如電池這種被中國把持的產業就沒轍了...
"While the dust has settled in Germany, many governments, lacking a national review mechanism, remain on the fence on how to handle investments from Chinese firms. To fill the gap, last October the EU adopted a framework for screening foreign direct investment (FDI). The system is the first of its kind. It allows member states to exchange information on foreign investments and takeovers, as well as the European Commission to issue opinions if it decides that an investment threatens the security of more than one member state."
https://thediplomat.com/2021/08/europe-faces-the-tricky-task-of-policing-chinese-investments/
在C919真正通過市場考驗前，中國暫時仍需要波音與空中巴士支撐航機需求:
"The C919 is widely believed to be priced below its Boeing and Airbus competitors, but foreign air carriers have been concerned about its fuel efficiency. Improved efficiency can yield big savings in operational costs and has become increasingly important as airlines feel pressure to reduce their large carbon footprints."
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/22/business/china-boeing.html
波音與空巴雙方產能都供不應求:
"巴最終裝配線分布全球，包括法國的土魯斯（Toulouse）和德國的 漢堡（Hamburg）、中國的天津（Tianjin）、美國的阿拉巴馬州莫比爾（Mobile）和加拿大的魁北克（Quebec），其中圖盧茲負責A320系列、A330、A350和A380的生產，漢堡專門生產A320系列，天津和莫比爾生產A320和A330，魁北克則生產A220。
而波音則擁有兩個主要的最終裝配線，為在美國華盛頓州的雷頓（Renton）和南卡羅來納州的北查爾斯頓（North Charleston），前者主要負責波音737系列的組裝，包括737 MAX，而後者則負責787 Dreamliner的生產，此外，波音的巨無霸機747、777和767則在華盛頓州的埃弗雷特（Everett）工廠進行組裝。"
米塞斯對兩種意識型態的競爭評語可謂不支持如今布林肯之類主張競合關係的立論:
"當今政治鬥爭的主要議題是：究竟是該以生產手段私有制為基礎(資本主義、市場經濟體系)來組織社會，或是該以生產手段公有制為基礎(社會主義、共產主義、計畫經濟)來組織社會？資本主義意味：自由企業、在經濟事務方面消費者權力至上、在政治事務方面選民權力至上。社會主義意味：政府完全控制每一領域的個人生活、政府作為中央生產管理當局擁有至高無限的權力。這兩種制度之間沒有妥協方案。和流行的謬論相反，沒有折衷方案，不會有第三種制度可以作為某種永久社會秩序的模式。公民必須在資本主義和社會主義之間作出選擇，或者就像許多美國人所說，在美國式的生活和俄國式的生活之間作出選擇。
在此對抗中，無論是誰，若想支持資本主義，都必須坦率且直接地支持。他必須正面支持私人財產權和自由企業。僅僅批駁某些為社會主義鋪路的措施，是徒勞的。只針對附隨現象，而不針對極權主義趨勢本身進行打擊，是沒用的。只一味批評官僚主義，是不會取得什麼成果的。"
紐時這篇投書的關鍵在於指出米中正在打一場關係體系存亡的霸權大戰:
"The establishment of Chinese military pre-eminence in East Asia would be a unique geopolitical shock, with dire effects on the viability of America’s alliance systems, on the likelihood of regional wars and arms races and on our ability to maintain the global trading system that undergirds our prosperity at home."
"中國在東亞建立軍事優勢將是一個獨特的地緣政治衝擊，對美國聯盟體系的可行性、對地區戰爭和軍備競賽的可能性，以及對我們維持支撐國內繁榮的全球貿易體系的能力，都會產生可怕的影響。"
https://cn.nytimes.com/opinion/20231023/china-taiwan-war/zh-hant/dual/
內外呼應的產業出走潮：
“供應鏈研究公司Altana AI執行長史密斯（Evan Smith）說，自2016年以來，陸續執行損及中國對美出口的新法規、海關執法與貿易政策等，隨之而來則是「調適的因應之道」，包括離開中國建置新的子公司。
夏羅指出，如今越來越多跨國企業採取「中國加一」模式，以確保在他國可取得其他的貨源，以免在中國的供應鏈中斷，於是中國的本土企業也紛紛跟進。”
中國長久以來自給自足夢可能要面對的現實缺口:
"China has at least a 70% dependence on about 412 items imported from the U.S. and allied countries, at a value of roughly $47 billion annually, according to the analysis. Beijing lacks ready-made homegrown alternatives for many of the items."
"Japan has the largest number of high-dependency items for China at 124, followed by the U.S. at 87, Germany at 64, South Korea at 28 and France at 27, according to the analysis. The U.S. represents the country with the largest total value of imports at $11.5 billion, while Australia comes in at No. 2 at $10.6 billion."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-allies-could-counter-chinas-economic-coercionif-they-unite-c45d2f8d
但經濟爆發的西南各州有缺水問題啊~
"Many companies building factories in the Southwest expect to train some of their future workers.
TSMC, the Taiwanese chip maker now building in Phoenix, said the semiconductor manufacturing technology that will be used in the new plant isn’t yet employed in the U.S. It started training its first hires in Tainan City, Taiwan, where trainees will be housed for 12 to 18 months."
一定要儘快開拓印度工廠
@Perfume 問題在於讓極權國家參與民主國家的全球化供應鏈是錯誤的決策，動搖政治合作的不是全球化，而是極權的威脅。
從兩極對抗概念剖析自給自足的矛盾點：
“而美國外交建制派長年以來信奉的原則，則是一種被哈佛大學國際關係學者Stephen Walt稱之為自由主義霸權（liberalism hegemony）的概念。自由主義霸權強調以遍佈全球的軍事投射力量為基礎，藉絕對的制裁能力保證由複雜法律規章所建構的制度約束性，再以武力與制度來鞏固「自由航行」、「自由民主價值」與「自由市場」等規範共同構成的自由主義國際秩序。而「全球軍事部屬」、「全球民主聯盟對抗極權聯盟」與「自由市場機制」正是鞏固自由主義霸權的「三本柱」。”
“印太事務協調官坎貝爾即在近日《金融時報》主持的一個講座中指出，拜登的對中政策是歐巴馬與川普政府的混合體。也就是同時包含「對抗、競爭與合作的混合模式」。但坎貝爾也指出，這樣的混合，必然存在矛盾之處。坎貝爾所謂的「兩種路線的矛盾」，若是以自由主義霸權三本柱來檢視拜登的外交政策時，我們就可以看到，自由主義霸權的穩定是以軍事力量、民主治理和市場經濟為基礎，用美國的綜合國力打造並維持一個技術互賴與經濟互利的環境，若是這個同盟與制度網絡，硬是被保護主義箝制了自由市場經濟，等於是把自由主義霸權三本柱抽掉一根，如此看來，正是「大廈將傾」之兆。”
https://voicettank.org/自由主義霸權崩塌的盧比孔河晶片供應鏈重組的保護主義/?fbclid=IwAR3lIHjilFMV2UV2NfRqs7g8Ll3vLNZiK65uHfMQJzGCIwHgyevjGnT2x1Q/amp/