Reach for the Stars 
@antares@qoto.org
- Pronouns
- It's complicated. IDK. Maybe ze/zim/zir https://pronouns.org/ze-hir
- Degree
- Physics, Cal Poly SLO
- Work
- I fix broken stuff
#Technology, #baseball (Dodgers), #politics, #religion (#Christian)
Joined Apr 2022
Reach for the Stars
boosted
boosted
🇳🇱
When was your earliest memory?
@freemo Also I've tried before when someone left a ZIP+4 visible and I pointed out that I could resolve that number to their apartment building. They blocked me.
"Hey dude,
I just cyberstalked you and I thought you might want to know.
Sincerely,
An anonymous account you've never heard of before"
Ethical question: Someone I don't know but share a common interest with posted a picture of a very cool delivery he got with the address blocked out but the tracking number clearly visible. Do I tell him that the shipper gives a partial address online and will give a complete address and photo of the delivered package if contacted by email? or is someone else's OpSec none of my business.
@AliceMarshall In other words the US Treasury would give bond holders 1 trillion dollars to spend in the economy. That is exactly 1 trillion dollars of [Quantitative Easing][1] happening just when the fed is trying to tighten the money supply.
[1]: https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/quantitative-easing-qe/
@athousandcateaus MMT is a fun little theory, but there are some glaring flaws in it's narrative.
MMT proposes an all-powerful government that can spend money and raise taxes at will without political pressure from the people. It sees a government in isolation where wealth transfer to other nations is not a factor. It further proposes that "the government" will be a rational economic actor with an abiding interest in in stable currency an the ability to make complex economic corrections in a timely and intelligent manner. Now to quote @kairyssdal , "Have you met the Congress of the United States?"
Most of the worlds advanced economies have carefully separated the function of maintain a stable currency from the operations of government. * In the sense of MMT the Federal Reserve is the agent most like "the Government" in the narrative. Congress could take direct control of the US Central Bank but it won't and for very good reasons.
So long as the regulation of the money supply is left to a politically independent FOMC congress does not have the power to spend without borrowing** and the MMT idea that the US Treasury cannot run out of money does not hold, and it is a good thing it doesn't, because were we to depend on the US congress to maintain economic stability directly the US would be in deep s**t.
In terms of raising the debt limit, you can argue that congress and the president might come up with a completely revamped economic system for the US, but I think the probability that it happens in the 118th congress are quite remote.
* China is the one glaring exception and they themselves would probably debate whether they are and advances or developing economy. At least in WTO terms China still uses the rules for developing economies.
** The hypotheticall trillion dollar coin ploy not withstanding
@athousandcateaus There is a big difference between having a higher deficit and monetizing debt. You don't hear anyone in economic circles worrying about the US debt to GDP ratio if congress fixes the statutory borrowing limit we are fine (choices 1 or 2).
On the other hand fixing a legal fiction with real dollars will absolutely have economic consequences. Perhaps not 10,000% inflation, but certainly double digit inflation, especially if market participants start to believe that it will be the standard solution to a debt limit impasse.
Now as your first video points out we could raise taxes to the point that income = spending, which is another way governments can handle unpaid debt. I think new taxation is particularly unlikely in the current political climate. There is also the slight problem of popular revolution. I would remind you what happened when the government of King George III tried to raise taxes to pay off the debt of the French and Indian war.
@1dalm This is true which brings up the question as to why the Biden administration didn't abolish the debt limit before the GOP won control of the House.
@athousandcateaus Yes, I see from the comments that I should have added a choice for Monitizing the Debt and the resulting hyperinflation to the list. I just didn't think anyone would seriously think the US would pull a Zimbabwe. I have clearly underestimated the internet.
@1dalm from my perspective when POTUS says, "We believe, when it comes to the debt limit, it has been done in a bipartisan way over the years and decades. And it should be done in a bipartisan way. And it should be done without conditions. That is important here." that puts a line in the sand. If the debt limit is raised only in conjunction with conditions it is not a blend of 1 and 2 but a loss for the Biden administration.
@AliceMarshall I wonder how former Fed Chair Janet Yellen will feel about dropping a trillion dollars worth of new money into an economy struggling to get inflation under control?
What is your prediction on the raising the US #DebtLimit? (Boost for bigger sample)
1) #Biden caves; increase tied to spending cuts
2) #Republicans cave; Clean debt limit Increase.
3) US Government Default
@SusanPotter The Fed keeps hiking interest rates, and the US Government is the worlds largest borrower. At some point this year interest on the national debt will pass defense spending as the largest line item in the national budget.
Reach for the Stars
boosted
boosted
On September 25, 1965, 59 year old Satchel Paige pitched for the Kansas City A's against the Boston Red Sox. He pitched 3 innings and only gave up 1 hit - a double to Carl Yastrzemski.
This concluded his career in the American League w an ERA of 3.29 over 476 innings and two All Star selections - all done when he was between 41-59 years old.
Reach for the Stars
boosted
boosted
My Paraphrase of a Recent Faculty Meeting:
"2023 is going to be a year of INNOVATION for us - by which I mean, we're going to resurrect some programs that we've tried repeatedly over the years but have never worked and which we refuse to alter based on feedback from those who've been through this cycle multiple times. If you resist, it's because you don't care enough about our kids' success to risk being INNOVATIVE!"
@OldAndCranky I agree that with great power comes great responsibility, and I worry about the power we give to silencing speech. What happens when a MEGA Republican declares that Black Lives Matter is a terrorist organization and claims that allowing them to orginize protests where they block freeways on social media is akin to yelling "FIRE!" in a crowded building.
Far too many people who claim to want to silence speech as "too dangerous" never stop to think about whether they may someday be the ones with dangerous but righteous ideas.
US Politics
With today's second set of #Classified documents, it is time for #Biden to step aside and not seek the #democratic presidential nomination in #2024.
He is already a weak candidate with a poor track record when it comes to making significant progress on the economy, the climate crisis, women's health and judiciary reform. He is a very old man and his age alone adds greater risk of becoming unable to campaign at a critical moment. (can you imagine what happens if a 82 year old candidate ends up in the hospital a few weeks before the general election?)
Now we have this political gift to the GOP. Not only does this totally blunt any messaging on the Mar-a-Lago documents, but it will hand around Biden's neck like "her emails"
Maybe for a great candidate with strong popular support it would be worth enduring the political headwinds of this #scandal, but Joe Biden is the least popular first term #democrat in the age of modern polling. It would be better for the party and the country for him to step aside now and allow for a robust open 20-24 democratic primary.
Reach for the Stars
boosted
boosted
RT @RichardRubinDC
First CBO score of the new Congress is here.
Says that the GOP IRS funding bill would reduce spending by $71.5B and reduce revenue by $185.8B.
Net deficit increase of $114B.
- Pronouns
- It's complicated. IDK. Maybe ze/zim/zir https://pronouns.org/ze-hir
- Degree
- Physics, Cal Poly SLO
- Work
- I fix broken stuff
#Technology, #baseball (Dodgers), #politics, #religion (#Christian)
Joined Apr 2022
