@spazzpp2 exactly, thus the problem. Interviewd people are "observational data" and their choices are not controlled. Thus the studies are victim to the fallacy mentioned
@spazzpp2 yes but you;d have to do so in a controlled setting where you know the **only** factor that is different is the mask. That would mean intentionally exposing a group to the virus which is unethical and thus impossible.
Any attempt to do the experiment using observational data, and thus other variables are not controlled would lead to the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy i mentioned.
So in effect there is no way to actually test the hypothesis and thus the problem.
@spazzpp2 but it doesnt change how we analyze the contribution of any factor. so the reason current studies are invalidated remains true regardless of the R0 value.
@spazzpp2 yea but since the infection rate doesnt effect the logic here you dont really need to imagine it at all
@spazzpp2 Well not really a thought experiment so much as established practice when it comes to statistical analysis.
Not sure why extremely high infection rates would change the principles here.
@trinsec yup that is indeed the effect at play
@cee On piano: https://youtu.be/KO5Iu2UOvDg
I vote for Prodigy: Smack my Bitch Up
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@posrev I find all the holy texts, the bible, torah, qua'ran, Libri Quinti Mysterium, and the countless others to all be valuable and interesting reads. No doubt.
@posrev this is true, but thats true any time of the year really :)
@posrev In 60 degree weather (the norm for Bethlehem in December) you'd expect animals to be outside and mary to be comfortable in a manger. 60 isnt that cold.
@posrev No argument there, there is no biblical or historical reason to think if he existed his birthday was dec 25th, on that we agree.
The part I disagree is any suggestion that the bible or any historical source explicitly gives a date, month, or season for his birthdate.
BTW the temperature in Bethlehem in December is around 60 degrees F, so more than warm enough.
@posrev Im not sure i follow. Why must it be fall if he was born in Bethlehem?
@posrev How does that narrow down the date? Israel has fairly warm winters and even if it didnt that could easily describe any of the other 3 seasons
@posrev A quick search suggests there is no context in the bible for a date other than the star of bethleham which would suggest a date in spring based on the theory that it was a comet known to show around that time period.
@posrev please do id be curious to see the source
@posrev Sure, I have no issue with your faith in his existence. But again where does the bible or any historic source claim he was born in October? Where did you get that notion from?
Jeffrey Phillips Freeman
Innovator & Entrepreneur in Machine Learning, Evolutionary Computing & Big Data. Avid SCUBA diver, Open-source developer, HAM radio operator, astrophotographer, and anything nerdy.
Born and raised in Philadelphia, PA, USA, currently living in Utrecht, Netherlands, USA, and Thailand. Was also living in Israel, but left.
Pronouns: Sir / Mister
(Above pronouns are not intended to mock, i will respect any persons pronouns and only wish pronouns to show respect be used with me as well. These are called neopronouns, see an example of the word "frog" used as a neopronoun here: http://tinyurl.com/44hhej89 )
A proud member of the Penobscot Native American tribe, as well as a Mayflower passenger descendant. I sometimes post about my genealogical history.
My stance on various issues:
Education: Free to PhD, tax paid
Abortion: Protected, tax paid, limited time-frame
Welfare: Yes, no one should starve
UBI: No, use welfare
Racism: is real
Guns: Shall not be infringed
LGBT+/minorities: Support
Pronouns: Will respect
Trump: Moron, evil
Biden: Senile, racist
Police: ACAB
Drugs: Fully legal, no prescriptions needed
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