Harold Asmis @hasmis@qoto.org

#physics #weather **Somebody has responded** Yeah, I can go on for another day! I was thinking of stopping this stuff.

_Hi.I found your blog via Mastodon. And I find it fascinating. But of course, I don't learn any geophysic background. And I'm in Europe. Would you care to provide a little more explanation about why El Nino is not in the forecast? And why it won't change before 6 months? And why 20 years (this is a very loooong forecast, isn't?)
Thanks for sharing your expertise!

Blogger Harold Asmis said...
I have more background on the sidebar -- my geophysics pages. In a tiktok nutshell, we have had a big temperature cycles in the far and near past. There was a lot of ink spilled on why the current warm rise was not a cycle, but the physics hypothesis goes with the 'continuity hypothesis' of geology, and says it is just another cycle.
This is against the 'carbon thermal blanket hypothesis' which physics says is proven false. The hypothesis of cycles has the mechanism of ocean currents changing. They stay the same for a long time and then suddenly change, in a chaotic manner. However, when they are in the process of changing, you see little signs in the ocean currents. Right now, we have a very strong cold current feeding the Pacific Belt. Formerly, this has been a short rebound of El Nino, and the past ones can be seen in the old current maps.
El Nino is a reverse of the main westerly current on the Pacific belt. It has a huge effect on the current, and this is the primary force. For historic times, it was going off every 7 years or so, and then a rebound La Nina. But we are not in Kansas any more, and there have been major changes. I am looking for a sign of reversal. It has the mechanism of 'building up' heat around Indonesia. There is no sign of it, so I am going with previous cycles and say 20 years, at minimum. There is a chance we have gone to a major 'Little Ice Age' cycle and that is 300 years._

**That is way too long for the tiktok generation. They can stick to fantasy.**

@cyrilpedia Not like *real* historical smells, I hope. I would retch...

@rdaily I'm surprised you had flowing water. :)

@MVEG001 Yeah, news from Australia! Rosie the Riveter would be proud.

@Floyd Good god, were you torturing the spiders?

#physics #weather **Simple momentum locks Pacific Cold Phase**

https://ontario-geofish.blogspot.com/2023/01/state-of-oceans-jan-17-2023.html

Not looking good for Australia, but they don't seem to be here, which is good for them.

**Davos not crazy enough for Musk** Old white males putting on their skis.
#1 I'm cutting down to only two megayachts.
#2 I'm only going to have 10 empty houses.
Musk: I'm firing everybody.
:)

#physics #weather **Europe a hunkahunka burning cold** The good news is that the 60 below stuff is being held off, but it still wants to come to the party.

#physics #weather **New Calicane has formed** I've lost track of everything, but a new storm has been born, and Calicane #2 has gathered strength and is moving down. The mimic shows that the main warm feed of #2 is being pushed down by cold.

@zleap @pj @aebrockwell @freemo OMG, this is a nested thread. Brain turning off for the day...

#physics #weather **Two baby storms merging to one** This is all happening very fast - 'I was a twin in the womb, and ate the other one."

@pj @aebrockwell @freemo I think the poster would be better, if they weren't wearing parachutes. :)

#physics **On the physics of thermal windows** Now that California and the UK must join us Canadians, we need to discuss new windows for the masses. Our old single-pane windows rattle in their frames, and leak like a sieve.
The greatest benefit you can have is by sealing your house. In winter, a leaky house has 20% humidity that kills you. An over-sealed house has 60% which causes the windows to rain, and produces black mold. You want a time in the winter with 40%, to kill all the little orgasmisms. (sic).
The glass sandwich has about a total effect of 5%, yet it is the big selling point. You want casement windows that seal like a fridge. You don't need triple pane unless you live by the train.
--tbc.

Whoops, the success of the hypothesis must be world-changing.

**Institute of Scientific Method** Reading all these studies of infinitely small improvements, I am dreaming that I will be in charge of the above funding institute with infinite money. We will only fund studies following the Scientific Method where the failure of a hypothesis lands you in a giant 'Three Stooges' pratfall, flat on your ass. If that happens we have a big party, lots of laughs, and double the funding. :)

@jekely OMG, *that* organism! not orgasm studies. Sorry.

@Gbudd I'll just put that picture on the wall. :)

@aebrockwell @freemo At the old company, I was on a group to prevent the 'Great 2000 turnover Disaster'. I looked quickly at all our systems and said in the first meeting - "Nothing is going to happen!' I was kicked out by the stupid people, who had a great party with that, and nothing happened.

@aebrockwell @freemo Ha, I stay away from that topic. The great thing about being retired is that I don't have to wrangle something out of stupid people. :)

@GeorgeMari Ha, we had a guest at the cottage, and he looked up at the feeder, at a female feeding, and said "How beautiful." We were on the deck saying "oh, oh" Sure enough, the male, being a dog in the manger, attacked the female at bullet speeds, and they zoomed by the guy, an inch by the head on either side. We were dying, laughing, and saying he almost had two spears in his head. But their reflexes are amazing, and although they constantly scare us when they fight, they've never hit anyone yet. I always put up the deck umbrella, just for them.